World Wheat Market

06 October 20177 min reading

Global wheat production is increasing which was 736 million tons in 2015/16 season, increased 754 million tons in 2016/17 season. According to forecast of International Grain Council (IGC), world wheat production will decrease 748 million tons. EU has the largest share in world wheat production and consumption. EU which realized 160 million tons of wheat production in 2015/16 season decreased to 145 million tons in 2016/17 season. Almost 153-172 million tons of world wheat production takes part in international trade in the last 3 seasons. 

urunBecoming more and more significant in terms of nutrition and food safety, wheat is the most produced grain in the world with more than 220 million hectare cultivation land. The main reason why wheat is such a common grain is that it is cultivated in many regions and that our basic foodstuff bread is made from it. Therefore, most of the countries in the world consider wheat as a strategic product and pursue their policies as to this. Today, countries like China, India, USA, Russia, Australia, Canada, Ukraine, Turkey and Kazakhstan are the top wheat producers in the world. While China and India use their production in domestic market Turkey and Kazakhstan export it processing wheat into flour and compete with each other in global flour trade. USA, Russia, Australia, Canada and Ukraine directly involve in competition in terms of wheat export. WORLD WHEAT PRODUCTION AND MAJOR PRODUCER COUNTRIES International Grain Council IGC announced its latest report for global grain market on 28 September. According to the report of IGC, global wheat production is declining. As to the report, global wheat production which was 736 million tons in 2015/16 season reached 754 million tons in 2016/17 season. In prediction of 2017/18 season, it is expected to decline 748 million tons. Data of United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agriculture Service (USDA FAS) which is published on September is nearly the same with the data of IGC. According to the data of USDA, wheat production amount which was 735 million tons in 2015/16 season increased at 753 million tons in 2016/17 season. USDA also forecasts 744 million tons for 2017/18 season.

According to USDA FAS data, European Union countries take the lead in world wheat production for 2015/16 season with 160 million tons. It is assumed that the wheat production of European Union countries will drop in 2016/17 season and be realized as 145,4 million tons. The biggest producer as a single country is China as usual. China has produced 130 million tons of wheat in 2015/16 season and it was estimated that this amount will be 128,8 million tons for 2016/17 season. India follows China with 87 million tons in 2016/17 season. Russia (72,5 million tons), USA (62,8), Australia (33,5 million tons), Canada (31,7), Ukraine (26,8 million tons) and Pakistan (25,6 million tons) follow these countries.

WORLD WHEAT CONSUMPTION AND MAJOR CONSUMER COUNTRIES According to USDA data, the highest rate of wheat consumption, as in its production, belongs to European Union countries. European countries are also expected to be the top again with consumption amount of nearly 128,5 million tons in 2016/17 season. However, on a single country basis, China is the leader in consumption with 118,5 million tons. China’s forecasted consumption amount is 116 million tons in 2017/18 season. In the same season (2016/17 season), India with 97,5 million tons was third. USDA forecasts that India will consume 99 million tons in 2017/18 season.

After India, Russia ranks fourth with 40 million tons in the world wheat consumption in 2016/17 season. USA with 31,6 million tons and Pakistan with 24,5 million tons, Egypt with 19,6 million tons and Iran with 18 million tons follows Russia.

WORLD WHEAT TRADE According to the report of IGC, global wheat trade which was 153 million tons in 2014/15 season and 166 million tons in 2015/16 season was recorded as 176 million tons in 2016/17 season. However, despite the expectations for the growth of production, a growth in trade is not expected in 2017/18 season. Even as to IGC, global wheat trade will decrease 2 million tons (174 million tons). USDA data shows that global wheat trade which was 172 million tons in 2015/16 season will reach at 181 million tons in 2016/17 season. The data of USDA is nearly 5-6 million tons more than the data of IGC. The reason why the data of USDA is higher is that flour trade is also included in this data.

According to USDA data, 29,4 million tons of total world wheat and flour trade which was 181 million tons in 2016/17 season was done by USA. Russia has the second place with 27,8 million tons. EU countries are ranking first with 34,4 million tons of wheat export amount in 2015/16 season but country declined third with 27,3 million tons of export in 2016/17 season. Australia comes after EU countries with 22 million tons of export amount. When the forecast of USDA for 2017/18 season is considered, Russia with 32,5 million tons will be first, EU countries will be second with 28,5 million tons and USA ranks third with 26 million tons.

Egypt has long been in the first place for world wheat import. According to the data of USDA, Egypt which has imported 11,9 million tons of wheat in 2015/16 season, declined this amount to 11,2 million tons in 2016/17 season. Indonesia which comes right after Egypt imported 10 million tons of wheat in 2015/16 season. It imported 10 million tons of wheat again in 2016/17 season. Indonesia is followed by Algeria with 8,4 million tons, Brazil with 7,7 million tons, India with 6 million tons and Japan with 5,9 million tons. It is forecasted that wheat import of India will decrease 1,5 million tons, wheat import of Vietnam will decrease 1 million tons and other countries will import at nearly the same level in 2017/18 season.

WHEAT PRODUCTION IN TURKEY Wheat can be produced almost in all regions of Turkey and it comes first in terms of cultivated area and production. Wheat is produced in all regions of Turkey; but the Central Anatolian region like Konya, Eskisehir, Ankara and Kirsehir; and Southeastern Anatolia (Sanliurfa, Diyarbakir and Mardin) are the two important regions for wheat production. According to the data of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT), the grain product that is produced the most in Turkey is wheat. Turkey, which produced 22 million tons of wheat in 2013, reduced this amount to 19 million tons in 2014. However, it is estimated that wheat production in Turkey which produced 22.6 million tons with an increase of 3.6 tons in 2015 decreased to 20.6 million tons in 2016.

According to the September report of the United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agriculture Service (USDA FAS), the most consumed grain product in Turkey is wheat. In the 2013/14 season, Turkey consumed 17.75 million tons of wheat and in the 2014/15 season it decreased to 17.5 million tons. Turkey is expected to consume 18 million tons of wheat in the 2015/16 season with an increase of 500 thousand tons. And Turkey has consumed 17,4 million tons of wheat in 2016/17 season. It is predicted that consumption will increase to 17.7 million tons in 2017/18.

WHEAT AND FLOUR TRADE IN TURKEY Turkey is the exporter country in global wheat trade. However wheat import of Turkey is caused by the need of final product producers for quality wheat, not by inadequate wheat production. This import amount is also around thousands tons. Turkey is the most significant exporters of final product, in other words flour and pasta. According to the data of TUIK, Turkey which exports 1,9 million tons of flour in 2011 and 2012 increased this amount to 2,1 million tons in 2013. The value of this export amount is 946 million dollars. Gaining 931 million dollars for 2,2 million tons of flour export in 2014, Turkey reached at 2,7 million tons in quantity basis and 978 million dollars in value basis. Also, it is estimated that Turkey exported 3,5 million tons flour in 2016 and the value of this export is 1 billion dollars.

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