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06 June 20265 min reading
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08 April 20267 min reading
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13 May 202611 min reading
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13 May 20266 min reading
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BLOG

Ukraine’s 2025/26 barley exports set to hit near two-decade low

13 May 20266 min reading

Victoria Blazhko
Head of Analytics at ASAP Agri

Inna Stepanenko
Chief Analyst at ASAP Agri

The Ukrainian barley market this season leaves very little space for debate — it points to one clear conclusion: this is the weakest season in almost twenty years. In July-April, exports amounted to only 1.4 MMT. With just two months left before the end of the 2025/26 season, the market has largely lost momentum, as demand remains weak, trade activity is limited, and traders are increasingly turning their attention to the new season.

According to ASAP Agri estimates, total exports in the 2025/26 season are expected to only slightly exceed 1.5 MMT. This would be around 700 KMT below last season and would represent the lowest level since at least the 2007/08 MY. In this context, the current season is not just a weak one — it also confirms a longer-term trend of barley gradually losing its place in Ukraine’s export structure.

Against this background, USDA projections look too optimistic. The agency still forecasts Ukrainian barley exports at 2.2 MMT in 2025/26, which is well above the current pace of shipments. Given the export dynamics so far, a downward revision is becoming increasingly likely. This would, in turn, result in higher ending stocks, which ASAP Agri already estimates at around 1.5 MMT, adding extra pressure ahead of the new season.

WHAT IS BEHIND THE DECLINE IN UKRAINIAN BARLEY EXPORTS

The current situation is not a short-term setback, but rather the result of structural changes that began after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The war disrupted both production and logistics chains, becoming the main factor behind the sharp reduction in export volumes. After reaching a peak of 5.7 MMT in the 2021/22 season, the market moved into a period of steady decline.

At the same time, the supply side has also changed. Barley has long remained one of the least profitable crops, and under current conditions, farmers are increasingly shifting acreage toward more attractive alternatives. As a result, lower production has coincided with shrinking export markets, creating persistent pressure on shipments.

One of the key factors reshaping export geography has been the change in market access conditions. In the early phase of the full-scale war, the EU effectively served as a buffer for Ukrainian grain exports by removing trade restrictions and sharply increasing imports. However, the return of import quotas on Ukrainian grains from 6 June 2025 changed this dynamic.

Access to the EU market has narrowed significantly. The bloc’s share in Ukrainian barley exports dropped from 16% to only 4%, while volumes fell to 55 KMT in July-April, compared with more than 400 KMT a year earlier and over 1 MMT in previous peak seasons. Europe, once one of the key destinations, has effectively disappeared from Ukraine’s barley export map this season.

Looking forward, prospects remain limited. Although EU barley production is expected to decline slightly in 2026 after last year’s strong crop, domestic supply remains sufficient, suggesting that import demand — including for Ukrainian barley — will likely stay muted.

Demand from China has also weakened sharply. While China imported 708 KMT of Ukrainian barley in the 2024/25 MY, purchases declined to 486 KMT in 2025/26. The main reason was Australia’s record barley harvest, which redirected demand toward that origin, as Australian supplies were more competitive both in terms of price and logistics.

Despite this, East Asia’s share in Ukraine’s export structure — with China still the key buyer — has increased. However, this does not indicate stronger demand. Instead, it reflects lower shipments to other regions, particularly North Africa. This was the region where demand weakened most visibly this season: its share fell from 27% to 16%, while exports dropped from 598 KMT in 2024/25 to 230 KMT in 2025/26 as of the end of April.

At the same time, the base effect should also be considered: last season’s figure was unusually high, reflecting a temporary increase in the region’s role. In the current season, volumes have not only declined compared with that elevated base, but have also fallen to some of the lowest levels seen in recent years, highlighting the declining importance of North Africa in Ukraine’s export geography.

Against this backdrop, the overall export structure is increasingly returning to a pattern seen about a decade ago, with a minimal EU share and a dominant role for the Middle East. The Middle East has become the main demand driver for Ukrainian barley in the 2025/26 season, importing 656 KMT, which is already above the total volume for the entire previous marketing year. Overall, the region accounted for roughly half of Ukraine’s barley exports this season.

Among the key buyers, Turkey stands out, with imports of nearly 300 KMT amid a weaker domestic crop. Lebanon also played an important role, purchasing a record 110 KMT. New destinations such as Iraq and Syria have also emerged, although their volumes remain relatively small and are not enough to compensate for the loss of major markets.

However, even this support factor seems temporary. Turkey, one of the main sources of demand this season, may sharply reduce imports in 2026. Turkish barley production is expected to rise significantly to around 8.5 MMT in 2026, up by roughly 3 MMT y/y. Even before the harvest, these expectations are already influencing market sentiment and pointing to lower import needs, which limits prospects for Ukrainian barley exports.

2026/27 SEASON: A POSSIBLE SILVER LINING FOR UKRAINIAN BARLEY EXPORTS

After the weak performance seen in the current season, Ukrainian barley exports may have some room for recovery in the 2026/27 MY. According to ASAP Agri’s tentative forecast, exports next season may reach 2.1 MMT, up 0.6 MMT y/y. The main support factor is expected to come from large carry-over stocks accumulated in the 2025/26 season, while production is likely to decline.

At the same time, FAS USDA appears significantly more optimistic, projecting Ukrainian barley exports at an impressive 4.2 MMT for the next season. This outlook is based not only on large beginning stocks, but also on expectations of higher production.

Despite the substantial gap between forecasts, one point is becoming increasingly clear: Ukrainian barley exports are likely to increase in 2026/27. At the same time, exports from other major global suppliers are expected to decline amid lower production. For now, cumulative barley production among key global exporters is forecast to fall by around 10 MMT y/y in 2026/27, reducing overall exportable supply next season.

In this context, Ukraine may receive an important opportunity. While most other key exporting countries may cut shipments, Ukraine’s massive carry-over stocks could support trade and allow the country to regain a stronger position in the global barley market.

*At ASAP Agri, we track these movements in real time — from origin competitiveness to policy signals and changing global flows. Subscribe to ASAP Premium Reports — your live analytics for every day.