BLOG

Yes, Brazil and Argentina are poised to gain market share as China moves away from U.S. suppliers, particularly for agricultural products like soybeans, corn, and meat.

In this special feature, ASAP Agri’s Chief Analysts Inna Stepanenko and Kateryna Mudriian unpack the evolving dynamics in U.S. -China trade and examine whether the Black Sea region — particularly Ukraine, Russia, and Romania — is ready to step in and fill the gap left by the U.S. absence in Chinese imports, or whether South America will ultimately capture the lion’s share of demand.

As the U.S. reinstates tariffs on key trading partners, the global grain market is facing unprecedented disruptions. With escalating trade tensions and retaliatory measures from Canada, China, and Mexico, the U.S.'s once-dominant position in global grain exports is now under threat.

Ukraine’s grain export flows have undergone significant shifts this season, with Turkey emerging as a major buyer of Ukrainian corn, while Spain’s share has dropped significantly.

After a strong export performance in the first half of the 2024/25 marketing year, Ukraine’s wheat shipments now face mounting challenges.

The grain market of 2024 was a journey through highs and lows, marked by shifting trade policies and unpredictable weather that tested the industry’s resilience.

The corn season 2024/25 has started in Ukraine. The country is waiting for Chinese demand, but there are no signs of revival. In the 2023/24 MY (October-September), China already reduced its imports of Ukrainian corn to 4.6 MMT vs 5.5 MMT in the previous season.

Implementation of Turkish wheat import ban on 21 June 2024 was a heavy bearish factor for Black Sea wheat and freight market.

Ukraine has faced significant challenges in maintaining its traditional markets in North Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia – particularly in Egypt, Turkey, and Indonesia – since the onset of the war.

The prospects of Ukrainian barley export in 2024/25 MY may seem quite gloomy from the point of view of potential buyers’ demand, as such key destinations like Spain and China may reduce purchases.

On 06 June 2024, the government of Turkey introduced a ban on wheat import for the period from 21 June 2024 to 15 October 2024. The measure is taken to protect local farmers during the harvesting period.

According to the USDA’s May ‘Grain: World Markets and Trade’ report, the global wheat outlook for 2024/25 forecasts record production and consumption but lower trade and contracting ending stocks.