After a drought-hit 2025 crop, Türkiye is entering the 2026/27 season with wheat production expected to rebound to around 22.75–23.25 million tonnes and barley output also recovering strongly, supported by above-average rainfall and expanded winter crop area. Yet the market is shifting: wheat import needs are set to ease, corn is becoming the main import requirement, private stockholding remains constrained by high financing costs, flour exports are trying to recover after a weak start to the year, and TMO procurement, water planning and food security concerns will shape the new season.

A STRONGER WHEAT CROP AFTER A DIFFICULT YEAR

Türkiye’s 2026/27 grain season is opening with a markedly better production outlook than last year, when drought cut wheat output and tightened the domestic balance. Local analysts and sector representatives broadly agree that the recovery in rainfall has materially improved winter crop conditions, especially for wheat and barley.

The Turkish National Grain Council’s pre-harvest assessment points to wheat production of 22.75 million to 23.25 million tonnes in 2026, up 27–30% from last year’s 17.9 million tonnes and well above Türkiye’s long-term average of around 20 million tonnes. Some market participants believe production could even approach 24 million tonnes if late-season conditions remain favourable.

That optimism is also reflected in official and sector comments. Agriculture and Forestry Minister İbrahim Yumaklı said at the 2026 Pre-Harvest Grain Congress in Konya that Türkiye could recover last year’s production loss “many times over” and that he believed the country could set a record crop if no major problem emerges before harvest. 

The rainfall picture explains the stronger expectations. Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy said Türkiye received rainfall in the October–March period that was 43% above normal and 180% above last year, creating one of the most favourable moisture profiles in recent years. He said early estimates point to wheat production around 23 million tonnes, while total grain output could exceed 40 million tonnes. 

USDA’s Ankara office is more conservative, forecasting Türkiye’s 2026/27 wheat crop at 19.8 million tonnes, up 20% from its revised 2025/26 estimate of 16.5 million tonnes. It also projects harvested wheat area to rise by 150,000 hectares to 7.45 million hectares, with planting gains especially visible in southeastern Anatolia as some farmers shifted from cotton to wheat. 

Türkiye is moving from a weather-stressed season into a year of significantly stronger wheat availability. The domestic crop will be large enough to reduce the urgency of commercial wheat imports, while TMO’s procurement strategy will be central to how much of the crop moves into public stocks.

BARLEY ALSO REBOUNDS, WHILE CORN MOVES IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION

Barley is expected to recover sharply alongside wheat. Gürsel Erbap, Chairman of HUBUDER, the Turkish Grain Suppliers Association, said Türkiye could see a 35–37% increase in barley output this season, while Ibrahim Demirayak, Grains and Oilseeds Manager at Ameropa Türkiye, estimated barley production at around 8 million tonnes, roughly 20% above last year. USDA is again more cautious but still projects a strong rebound, with barley production at 7.0 million tonnes.

Corn is the exception. Türkiye’s water policy and crop planning model are pushing farmers away from water-intensive crops in water-scarce regions such as Central Anatolia and the Aegean. USDA expects corn output to fall 11% year on year to 7.0 million tonnes, with harvested area down 10% to 550,000 hectares. Erbap also expects corn production to fall by 5–10%, citing water constraints and the crop’s high irrigation requirement.

WHEAT IMPORTS MAY SLOW, BUT THE FLOUR INDUSTRY STILL MATTERS

A strong domestic wheat crop raises an obvious question for international suppliers: will Türkiye need to import wheat in the new season? Local market views suggest wheat imports may be limited if production reaches the upper end of expectations. Demirayak said Türkiye is unlikely to be active in wheat imports in the new season and may even remain closed to imports, given sufficient carry-in stocks and a good harvest. 

USDA’s balance sheet is more import-oriented, forecasting 2026/27 wheat imports at 6.5 million tonnes, down from 7.2 million tonnes in 2025/26. The reason is Türkiye’s inward processing regime, which allows imports for the export-oriented flour industry. Even with a near-record domestic harvest, USDA expects Türkiye to continue importing some wheat to support flour exports, although import volumes are unlikely to return to the higher levels seen several years ago. 

For Black Sea exporters, this means Türkiye may be less aggressive in wheat buying than in previous tight seasons, but it will not disappear from regional trade calculations. Türkiye’s import policy, TMO sales, flour export performance and price competitiveness against Russian and Ukrainian wheat will determine actual flows.

CORN BECOMES THE MAIN IMPORT STORY

İbrahim Demirayak

While wheat imports may decline, corn is likely to become Türkiye’s main grain import requirement. Demirayak said corn production could reach around 7.5 million tonnes, while imports may total about 3.5 million tonnes, mostly from the Black Sea. USDA is even more bullish on import demand, forecasting corn imports at 5.7 million tonnes in 2026/27, up from 4.2 million tonnes in 2025/26, as domestic production falls while feed demand continues to grow.

The government has already opened a 3 million tonne corn import quota for the April 20–July 31 period with a 5% preferential tariff. The new 3 million tonne corn import quota signals a shift in Türkiye’s grain import structure: wheat import needs are expected to ease after a stronger domestic crop, while corn is likely to become the main import requirement in the new season.

Corn demand is tied closely to Türkiye’s feed sector. USDA estimates corn consumption at 12.0 million tonnes in 2026/27, up from 11.6 million tonnes, driven mainly by feed demand. Türkiye’s compound feed production rose 4.8% in 2025 to 30.74 million tonnes, with ruminant feed up 6.3% and poultry feed up 2.6%. 

This makes Türkiye an important market for Black Sea corn even in a strong wheat year. However, Demirayak warned that Turkish buyers may not fully use the corn quota at current levels because local stocks are sufficient to prevent the market from chasing higher prices. That could put pressure on CIF Türkiye values if sellers price too aggressively. 

TMO WILL AGAIN BE THE CENTRAL MARKET ACTOR

TMO’s role will be decisive in the 2026 harvest. With a large crop expected and private sector stockholding constrained by high financing costs, the state grain board is likely to carry a significant part of the harvest burden.

Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy

TMO’s own storage capacity stands at around 4 million tonnes, including 485,000 tonnes at ports, and the agency operates through 190 workplaces. In addition to TMO’s own capacity, licensed warehouses will be critical for absorbing the new crop. According to the National Grain Council’s pre-harvest assessment, there was around 8 million tonnes of empty licensed warehouse space ahead of harvest, while Türkiye is expected to enter the new season with close to 10 million tonnes of available licensed warehouse capacity after ongoing transactions and new facilities are taken into account.

Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy described licensed warehousing as one of Türkiye’s key buffers against short-term supply shocks. He said the country’s total licensed warehouse capacity is approaching 15 million tonnes, with around 7.5–8 million tonnes of stocks currently held in the system. In his assessment, this infrastructure gives Türkiye time to manage short-term market disruptions and focus on risks beyond the immediate season.

Erbap also stressed that Türkiye’s licensed warehousing capacity is a major advantage in a high-production season. But he added that financing costs have reduced the private sector’s ability to hold stocks. Traditionally, grain traders and processors could work with three to four months of stocks; today, high interest rates and tighter access to finance are pushing private companies toward lower inventory levels. 

PRICE POLICY: BALANCING FARMERS, MILLERS AND EXPORTERS

Gürsel Erbap

The most sensitive domestic issue will be the 2026 procurement price and support mechanism. A large crop will require farmer protection, but excessive intervention prices could weaken the competitiveness of flour, feed and processed grain exporters. Yumaklı said TMO is ready for a record crop and that the government will not allow farmers to face problems during procurement. He also said purchase prices would protect producers and that cost increases would be taken into account. 

Erbap argued that the producer price cannot be designed only to satisfy farmers. The needs of millers, exporters, feed producers, transporters and consumers also have to be considered. He said high procurement prices can make raw material access more difficult for processors and reduce export competitiveness, making premium or deficiency payment support a more important policy tool. 

The National Grain Council also called for the continuation of updated premium support for wheat, arguing that intervention prices should not ignore costs and that a “National Agricultural Risk Fund” should be established to respond to rapid cost changes caused by global developments. 

FERTILIZER AND ENERGY COSTS RAISE RISKS FOR 2027

The 2026 crop outlook is strong, but input costs remain a risk for the next cycle. Ulusoy said the current season is largely protected because much of the fertilizer needed for Northern Hemisphere winter crops had already been applied before the latest geopolitical shocks intensified. The bigger concern is 2027 if fertilizer disruptions continue beyond the summer. 

He said urea prices in international markets rose from $300–350 to around $850 per tonne, with the Gulf region accounting for 55–60% of urea and related raw material supply. For Türkiye, he argued, the main issue is not availability but cost. Türkiye has regional procurement advantages, including access to Black Sea supply channels, but high prices will still feed into production costs.

Ulusoy estimated that the fertilizer cost component in wheat production could rise from around 1,000 lira per tonne to 2,500 lira per tonne, which could add roughly 10% to total production costs from this item alone. Yet he warned that reducing fertilizer use could be more damaging, as insufficient application can create 20–30% yield losses.