World Rye and Oat Market

08 December 201512 min reading
Global production of rye and oats is highly limited compared to the cereals like wheat, rice, corn and barley. An average annual production of 14-15 million tons of rye in the world, and majority of which is due to the production of 22-23 million tons of oats are provided by EU and Russia. According to USDA data; 14.5 million tons in the 2014/15 season, world rye production will continue to decrease and reduce to 15 million tons in the 2015/16 season. Oats production which was 22.4 million tons In the 2014/15 season is expected to be around 22.8 million tons in 2015/16. arastr72 Global production of rye and oats is highly limited compared to the cereals like wheat, rice, corn and barley. Being from cereal grains, rye looks like barley too much. Its seeds are longer and thinner compared to wheat, husks are narrower, and awns are shorter. Used mostly as bread flour and animal feed, rye contains carbohydrate, protein, potassium and Vitamin B. Bread made of rye flour is light as wheat bread. Protein mixture (gluten) included in wheat and rye flour enables the dough to swell and soft. Therefore, adding wheat or rye flour when making bread with the other grain flour is advised. Oat is also another cereal grain; however its appearance is highly different than wheat, barley and rye. Oat which can be easily distinguished from the other cereal grains with its scattered spike -shaped bunches has higher production amount compared to rye. Oat which is used mostly for animal feed and contains many starch, protein, vitamin and minerals is not used for bread making due to its swelling problem. Oat flour is mostly used for foods like porridge and flatbread; it seeds are generally used in grain mixtures having high nutritional value and biscuit production. WORLD RYE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION Most of the world production of rye which 14-15 million tons per year in average is provided by EU countries (57,8 percent) and Russia. According United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agriculture Service (USDA FAS) data; 17.5 million tons in 2009/10 as the actual world rye production, receded approximately 6 million tons in 2010/11, down to 11.4 million tons. 2011/12 season it increased again and reached 12.2 million tons, 13.7 million tons in the 2012/13 season, reached 15.8 million tons in the 2013/14 season. Contrary to the other cereals, global rye production has significantly decreased in 2014/15 season. According to the data of USDA, being 14.5 million tons in 2014/15 season, global rye production will continue to decrease in 2015/16 season and reduce to 13.2 million tons. According to the estimates of USDA for 2015/16, EU takes first place with 7.6 million tons in global rye production of 13.2 million tons. Russia with 3.3 million tons, Belarus with 800 thousand tons, Ukraine with 375 thousand tons, Turkey with 350 thousand tons, and USA with 292 thousand tons and Canada with 230 thousand tons follow EU countries respectively. As to these estimates, rye production of EU countries will decline about 1.2 million tons. The decline is expected in Belarus and Ukraine. Production amount in Russia, USA and Canada is likely to increase. Majority of rye is consumed where it is produced. Therefore, consumption amount and the ranking are nearly the same with the production. According to USDA data, the consumption amount of rye which was around 17.1 million tons in 2009/10 decreased by about 5 million tons to 12.5 million tons in 2010/11. In the 2011/12 season world rye consumption which was at the level of 12.7 million tons reached 15.2 million tons in the 2013/14 season. Rye consumption amount which decreased to 14.8 million tons along with the decrease in production in 2014/15 season is estimated to decline to 13,5 million tons. The consumption ranking of the countries seems to be the same with the production ranking in 2015/16 season. According to USDA data, the rye consumption of EU countries was 8.9 million tons in 2014/15 season. This amount will decrease to 7.8 million tons in 2015/16 season. However, EU countries will continue to be the top in consumption ranking in both situations. Regarding;, it was around 17.1 million tons, it;, , reached to 13.5 million tons and in the 2012/13 season. In the 2014/15 season again consumption is expected to remain at 15 million tons. Largest consumption on the basis of one country belongs to Russia as well as its production. Russia which was assumed to have consumed 3.2 million tons of rye in 2015/16 season is followed by Belarus with 800 thousand tons, USA with 467 thousand tons and Ukraine with 400 thousand tons. The biggest difference between production and consumption is that rye consumption of USA is 175 thousand tons more than its production. WORLD RYE TRADE As it can be observed from production and consumption data majority of rye is consumed in the country it is produced or a very small amount is exported to neighbouring countries. Therefore, the global rye trade is only around 407 thousand tons in the 2014/15 season. This amount is estimated to reach 380 thousand tons in 2015/16 season. Approximately half of the global rye trade in 2014/15 season, (175 thousand tons) were exported by EU countries. It is estimated that export amount of EU countries will decrease to 150 thousand tons. Both ways, EU will be top in exports as in production and consumption. Russia taking the first place in the world rye export, in 2011/12 season exported 110 thousand tons and ranked in the second place in 2013/14 season. It is estimated that Russia will continue to be the second with 100 thousand tons in 2015/16 season. Canada which exported 89 thousand tons in 2014/15 season and lost its place to Russia with this amount is estimated to share the second place with Russia with 100 thousand tons. As it is understood from the difference between production and consumption, the largest share of imports of rye is in the United States. Rye import amount carried out in the USA in 2014/15 season is 262 thousand tons. This is estimated to be around 200 thousand tons in 2015/16 season. In global rye imports in 2015/16 season, EU countries follow USA in import with 50 thousand tons, with 25 thousand tons Japan and Israel. WORLD OATS PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION An important part of production of oats that the annual average is around 22-23 million tons is offered by EU, Russia and Canada. According to USDA data; 23.5 million tons in 2009/10 realized as the actual world oat production, receded approximately 4 million tons in 2010/11, down to 19.6 million tons. Production reaching 22.3 million tons in the 2011/12 season, decreased to 21.1 million tons in the 2012/13 season, and in 2013/14 season started to increase again and reached to 23.5 million tons. Global oat production amount which reduced and remained at 22.4 million tons is estimated to be around this level (22.8 million tons) in 2015/16 season. Regarding the country ranking in terms of estimates for 2015/16 season, EU countries are in the first place with 7.7 million tons as in rye production. EU countries were in the first place with 7.8 million tons in 2014/15 season. EU countries are followed by Russia with 5 million tons, Canada with 3.3 million tons, Australia with 1.3 million tons and USA, Chile with 760 thousand tons, China with 600 thousand tons and Argentina 485 thousand tons. Expectations are the lowest for Russia and Ukraine compared to 2014/15 season. It is estimated that Russia which produced 5.2 million tons of oats in 2014/15 season will remain at 5 million tons in 2015/16 season; Ukraine which produced 610 thousand tons in 2014/15 season will have a loss of 235 thousand tons in 2015/16 season. The highest production expectation is belong to Canada. Canada which made a production of 2.9 million tons in 2014/15 season is expected to produce 3.3 million tons in 2015/16 season. The consumption of oats is intense where it is produced and shows a similar table with production as in rye consumption. It is seen that oats consumption is around 21-24 million tons in the whole world. 2010/11 world consumption of around 21 million tons of oats increased to 22 million tons in the 2011/12 season and has declined to 21.9 million tons in the 2012/13 season. In 2013/14 season, an increase of about 2 million tons reaching to 23 million tons, in the season 2014/15 world consumption of oats is expected to remain at the level of 22.4 million tons. Estimates show that production will increase and reach to 22,8 million tons in 2015/16 season. In 2014/15 season, the largest share in total world consumption of 22.4 million belongs to the EU countries with 7.6 million tons of consumption (as it is also the same in production). EU countries are estimated to maintain its production amount and its place in global ranking in 2015/16 season. EU countries are expected to be followed with consumption of 5.1million tons by Russia, with consumption of 2.8 million tons by USA, 1.6 million tons of consumption by Canada and with 900 thousand tons of consumption by Australia in 2015/16 season. Compared to 2014/15 season, the highest increase is expected to be in USA with 404 thousand tons, Chile with 200 thousand tons; and the lowest will be Ukraine with 225 thousand tons and Russia with 100 thousand tons. WORLD OATS TRADE Amount of rye in the world trade is very small as in oats production. Every year average 2 million tons of oats are exported and imported. In world oats trade, the largest export share belongs to Canada. Canada is the country almost realizing more than 70 percent of oats exports of the world. It is foreseen for Canada to perform an oats export of 1.7 million tons in 2014/15 season, to realize 1.6 million tons for 2015/16 season. Canadian oats exports are followed by Australia with 350 thousand tons and EU countries with 150 million tons. A similar table in the eats export table of the world is seen in the oats imports. Referring to the world oats imports, it is seen that almost all of the world's imports are performed by the United States. 1.7 million tons of oats import in the 2014/15 season is expected to perform the import of 1.6 million tons in 2014/15 season. In world oats import USA is followed by China with 250 thousand tons, Mexico with 100 thousand tons and Japan with 80 thousand tons. RYE AND OATS PRODUCTION IN TURKEY Rye and oats cultivation areas in Turkey; come after wheat, barley, maize and rice. Rye cultivation area in Turkey in 1960 which was 670 thousand hectares has dropped to 242 thousand hectares in 1987. Products derived from this area were approximately 380 thousand tons, according to 1987 data. The present contraction in cultivation areas has been continued till today and in 2011 they were decreased to 128 thousand hectares. Cultivation areas which showed some increase in 2012 reaching to 143 thousand hectares remained at 138 thousand hectares in 2013 and decreased to 115 thousand tons in 2014. Despite the contraction of cultivation areas the increase in productivity has been effective in increasing production. According to the data of Turkey Statistical Institute (TSI), rye production which was 220 thousand tons of in Turkey in 2001, reached to 270 thousand tons in 2004, 343 thousand tons in 2009, and in 2013 365 thousand tons. However, a significant decrease has been realized in 2014 and rye production of Turkey remained at 300 thousand tons. Productivity showed an increase of 38 percent in the last 10 years and reached to 261 kg in 2014 while it was 189 kg in 2004. Oats cultivation area in Turkey is much lower when compared to rye. Between 1938 and 1960, there was a steady increase in oats cultivation areas and began narrowing in subsequent years. In 1938, an oats cultivation area which was 248 thousand hectares has reached to 430 thousand hectares in 1960. However, a narrowing began in cultivation areas since 1960 and in 1975 decreased to 260 thousand hectares, 153 thousand hectares in 2000, in 2012 to 89 thousand hectares which was a very small area. In 2013 the cultivation are of oats was 93 thousand hectares and in 2014 it reached to 94 thousand hectares with an increase. The production parallel to the cultivation area has increased in recent years and was followed by a steady decline for the next years. In 1964 oats production was reached to 550 thousand tons, 355 thousand tons in 1980 and dropped to 270 thousand tons in 1990. Since the 1990s, stability has not been achieved in the manufacturing and in 2000 production which was realized as 314 thousand tons fell to 189 thousand tons in 2007, increased in the following years and in 2012 reached to 210 thousand tons. In 2013, 235 thousand tons of oats production occurring in 2014 season remained at 210 thousand tons. Despite the contraction experienced in the cultivation area of oats in recent years, the increase of yield in the rye like oats prevents the decrease in production. RYE AND OATS TRADE IN TURKEY Rye and oats trade of Turkey is highly limited. Realizing the highest rye export with 2 thousand 719 tons in 2012, Turkey realized the highest rye import with 67 thousand 122 tons in 2005. Importing 18 thousand 11 tons in 2007 and 15 thousand 562 tons in 2007, Turkey has not exported or imported rye in the last 10 years except these seasons. While Turkey nearly has not export data for oats, oats import is more steady compared to rye. Having the highest oats export with 248 thousand tons in 2008, Turkey imports 1-11 thousand tons every year. Import amount has decreased below 1 thousand (800 tons) only in 2013 and 2014 years.
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