Haitham Moneim
Chief Operating Officer
Astra Commodities

WHEAT, FOOD SECURITY AND STRATEGIC SUPPLY

Wheat is simultaneously a breakfast staple, a macroeconomic barometer, and a litmus test for state capacity. In the Middle East and Africa, governments rely on wheat not only to feed their populations but to uphold social contracts. In Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, over 70 million people depend on subsidized baladi bread. In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), urban diets are increasingly wheat-based, driven by demographic shifts, rising incomes, and globalized food preferences.

But the real challenge is no longer just securing wheat. It is executing its movement—from ports to silos, from banking to inland transport. The ability to move wheat reliably, quickly, and without friction has become as strategic as pricing or origin selection.

This transformation reflects a deeper reality. As global supply chains come under pressure from war, weather, and protectionist policies, importers must now account for risk beyond FOB and CIF. Execution—defined here as the seamless management of logistics, finance, customs, and coordination—is the new competitive edge.

This article examines how Egypt and various SSA countries are adapting their wheat trade systems. From centralized procurement and discharge delays to predictive logistics and regional coordination, the cases explored here reflect a new frontier in grain trading: where speed, adaptability, and executional resilience decide outcomes more than cost or volume.

EGYPT’S CENTRALIZED MODEL – STRENGTHS AND STRUCTURAL GAPS

Egypt imports approximately 12 million metric tons of wheat annually, a volume that positions it as the largest importer of wheat in the world. Nearly half of this total is procured by the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), the state agency responsible for securing subsidized wheat for baladi bread—an essential product for over 70 million Egyptians.

The GASC system operates through international tenders, often issued biweekly, attracting suppliers from the Black Sea, Europe, and North America. These tenders serve not only to ensure Egypt’s supply but also to benchmark global wheat prices, as they are watched closely by international markets.

Strengths of the Centralized System:

 Bulk Purchasing Power: By tendering large quantities, Egypt secures lower unit costs through economies of scale, including on freight rates.

 Transparency and Benchmarking: GASC’s published tender results add price transparency and serve as reference points for global traders and millers.

 Stability and Predictability: With state-backed financing and predictable schedules, suppliers are incentivized to prioritize Egypt, even during tight global markets.

However, the system also faces growing challenges:

 Foreign Exchange Dependency: The process relies on the Central Bank of Egypt to provide timely access to hard currency. During FX shortages, letters of credit (LCs) are delayed, causing vessels to wait at anchorage, triggering demurrage costs and disrupting supply chains.

 Port Congestion and Silo Bottlenecks: Discharge delays at key ports like Alexandria and Damietta are common due to a mismatch between berthing capacity and inland silo availability. Silo overcrowding, slow customs clearance, and inefficient cargo movement increase turnaround time.

 Private Sector Crowd-Out: The heavy presence of GASC reduces space for private importers, limiting market diversification and the potential for a responsive commercial wheat sector. Many private players are unable to compete on equal terms due to inconsistent FX access and lack of policy clarity.

Systemic Risks

The system’s strength—centralization—is also its greatest vulnerability. Any bottleneck at the central bank, GASC, or port level can paralyze the entire national import program. This was visible in 2022 when a combination of FX delays and backlog at Alexandria disrupted dozens of cargoes, leaving vessels anchored and suppliers hesitant to re-offer.

Reform Prospects

There is growing discussion within Egypt about transitioning toward a hybrid procurement model, where GASC handles strategic reserves and subsidized supply, while private sector players are encouraged to import for commercial mills and diversify origin risk. Reforms to customs, silo management, and FX prioritization could go a long way toward easing execution challenges.

In sum, Egypt’s centralized model has delivered food security and bargaining power. But its rigidity in the face of shocks—economic, logistical, or geopolitical—requires a more dynamic, decentralized, and collaborative approach to futureproof the system.

SSA’S IMPORT PATCHWORK – RESILIENCE OR RISK?

Unlike Egypt’s centralized procurement model, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) presents a fragmented and highly decentralized wheat import landscape. Across the region, countries rely on a mix of private sector imports, government-to-government deals, donor-driven food aid, and, in some cases, ad hoc strategic reserves. This diversity of models reflects different political economies, infrastructure capabilities, and degrees of market liberalization—but also introduces critical challenges around coordination, resilience, and execution.

Kenya is a key example of a market-led approach. Major millers such as Unga Group and Pembe Flour Mills are responsible for procuring their own wheat, typically sourced from Russia, Ukraine, or Australia, and imported through the port of Mombasa. The government rarely intervenes in the procurement process unless there’s a price spike or food insecurity event. While this encourages competition and responsiveness, it also exposes the system to significant price and logistics volatility, as seen during the COVID-19 supply disruptions and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Ethiopia, by contrast, blends state-led and donor-supported procurement. The government manages bulk food purchases via the Ethiopian Trading Business Corporation, while the World Food Programme and USAID provide food aid to buffer vulnerable populations. Although this ensures humanitarian supply, it can crowd out local millers and distort pricing, while also depending heavily on the performance of the Djibouti transport corridor.

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, has attempted to localize wheat production through policies like the Anchor Borrowers Programme. However, production remains insufficient, and imports continue to fill the gap. The private sector—led by firms like Flour Mills of Nigeria and Dangote—manages procurement, but must navigate constant FX volatility, high import duties, and infrastructure bottlenecks at ports like Apapa and Tin Can Island.

This fragmented picture creates several regional vulnerabilities:

 Lack of Scale and Coordination: Most private sector importers operate independently, resulting in small cargoes, higher freight costs, and limited bargaining power with suppliers. The absence of coordinated tenders or pooled procurement prevents regional economies of scale.

 Infrastructure Redundancy and Gaps: Without shared infrastructure, many countries maintain separate silo networks, inland transport systems, and customs regimes. This increases cost duplication and slows response time during crises.

 Policy Volatility and Trade Barriers: In some countries, sudden import bans, price controls, or export restrictions on grains create policy uncertainty. Cross-border trade is often subject to non-tariff barriers, reducing regional fluidity.

Despite these challenges, SSA’s import patchwork has some inherent resilience. Because countries rely on diverse models and suppliers, a localized disruption doesn’t always paralyze the system. However, this resilience comes at the cost of efficiency, predictability, and coordination.

There is growing momentum for regional approaches. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aims to reduce barriers to cross-border trade. The East African Grain Council is promoting harmonization of standards and certification. Afreximbank and the African Development Bank have floated proposals for joint procurement mechanisms and strategic grain corridors.

But until these initiatives translate into hard infrastructure, legal frameworks, and shared platforms, SSA’s wheat trade will continue to struggle with avoidable inefficiencies—and execution risk will remain disproportionately high.

INFRASTRUCTURE AS THE CORE BOTTLENECK

No matter how well wheat is sourced, financed, or priced, it cannot feed people unless it moves efficiently. Across Africa, weak infrastructure is the invisible bottleneck that inflates food prices, triggers demurrage, and slows economic growth. Ports, roads, railways, and silos—many of which were built decades ago—now struggle to cope with rising import volumes and complex supply chains.

Port Capacity and Equipment

Port infrastructure varies significantly across Africa, but in most cases, it is not keeping up with demand. In Egypt, ports like Alexandria, Damietta, and Dekheila are the main wheat discharge hubs. These ports often operate at or near full capacity during peak seasons. Discharge rates in Alexandria can range from 6,000 to 8,000 MT/day, depending on berth availability, crane functionality, and coordination with inland silos. While Egypt has made progress in port digitization and silo expansion, execution delays—particularly related to customs and LC clearances—still impact turnaround time.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, the situation is more acute. Mombasa, Kenya’s largest port, has improved capacity through investments in grain handling terminals, but still faces bottlenecks during peak import months. Discharge speeds are slower than global benchmarks, averaging 4,000–5,000 MT/day. Frequent berth congestion, outdated unloading gear, and manual documentation slow down operations. Lagos’s Apapa and Tin Can Island ports face chronic traffic congestion, compounded by inadequate road access and inefficient customs processes.

Inland Logistics: Road vs. Rail

Once wheat is offloaded at port, inland transport becomes the next choke point. In many African countries, road transport is the only viable option for long-distance grain movement. Trucks are often delayed by road conditions, seasonal flooding, police checkpoints, and poor coordination at weighbridges. Fuel prices, insurance costs, and theft risks further increase operating expenses.

Egypt has invested in expanding rail connectivity between ports and inland silos. However, utilization remains limited due to capacity constraints, scheduling conflicts, and legacy equipment. In East Africa, the Djibouti–Addis Ababa railway represents a major upgrade, reducing transit time and cost for Ethiopian imports. Still, most SSA countries lack dedicated grain corridors or bulk-handling infrastructure beyond the port.

Storage Constraints and Silo Mismatch

Discharge delays are often caused not by port limitations, but by the lack of ready storage. Public and private silos in Egypt are sometimes at full capacity due to delayed local procurement offload or insufficient coordination between GASC and the private sector. In Nigeria and Kenya, silos are often undersized, poorly maintained, or located far from main milling centers. Temporary bag storage is commonly used—posing quality risks from humidity, pests, or contamination.

Digital Infrastructure Gaps

Execution bottlenecks are compounded by the lack of integrated digital infrastructure. Few countries operate port management systems that synchronize berth scheduling, discharge operations, customs processing, and silo availability in real time. Manual paper-based processes dominate, slowing reaction time and reducing transparency.

Cost of Infrastructure Inefficiency

The cumulative impact is substantial. In SSA, infrastructure-related delays add $20–$40/MT to landed costs—equivalent to 10–20% of the CIF price. These costs are ultimately passed on to consumers or absorbed by governments in the form of higher subsidy bills. In times of crisis, the lack of efficient corridors can delay humanitarian aid or disrupt national milling schedules.

Without major upgrades to physical and digital infrastructure, Africa will continue to import wheat at a disadvantage. Traders, governments, and investors increasingly recognize that improving execution is not about speed for speed’s sake—it is about food security, fiscal sustainability, and global competitiveness.

CASE STUDY – DAMIETTA VS. MOMBASA

To illustrate the real-world implications of execution capacity, we compare two major wheat-importing ports: Damietta in Egypt and Mombasa in Kenya. While both serve as national gateways for critical grain imports, their discharge efficiencies, inland logistics, and system vulnerabilities differ significantly shaping the cost, reliability, and timeliness of food delivery.

Scenario 1: Damietta Port, Egypt

A 58,000 MT Panamax vessel carrying Russian wheat arrives in Damietta during the high season. The vessel is scheduled to discharge within 5 days, with optimal mechanical offloading and direct delivery to inland silos.

However, two issues emerge:

1. Customs and LC Delays: The importer’s letter of credit had not yet cleared due to foreign exchange bottlenecks. The vessel is forced to wait at anchorage for 48 hours until clearance is granted.

2. Silo Congestion: Inland silos are already filled with local wheat procured during the harvest season. Without immediate space available, offloading must be paced to match truck dispatch rates, reducing discharge speed from 7,000 MT/day to 4,500 MT/day.

The result: Instead of completing discharge in 5 days, the operation takes 8. The importer incurs $100,000–$120,000 in demurrage charges. Additionally, the delayed delivery disrupts flour mill planning in Upper Egypt, where the wheat was urgently needed to maintain subsidized bread supply.

Scenario 2: Mombasa Port, Kenya

A 52,000 MT vessel arrives from Ukraine at the Port of Mombasa. Weather conditions are favorable and the berth is available upon arrival. Offloading begins promptly.

However, several factors slow down execution:

1. Discharge Rate: With limited bulk-handling infrastructure and reliance on grab-and-hopper methods, discharge speeds average 4,000 MT/day—significantly slower than Egypt’s ports.

2. Inland Transport Constraints: The wheat is destined for Nairobi and Eldoret. Due to rain-damaged roads and high fuel prices, trucking becomes delayed and expensive. There are not enough clean, covered trucks available for continuous movement, causing additional lag time between port and mill.

3. Customs and Documentation: Clearance processes are partially digitized but still require manual validation. Errors in bill of lading data delay final approval by 24 hours.

The vessel completes discharge in 10 days. Demurrage totals $150,000. The miller’s schedule is disrupted, and flour prices temporarily rise due to delayed raw material input.

While Damietta has better physical infrastructure, it suffers from institutional delays and coordination gaps. Mombasa is relatively streamlined in customs access but lacks the mechanical capacity and multimodal inland connections needed for faster throughput.

Cost Impact

In both cases, inefficiencies translate directly into financial loss. An additional three days of demurrage at $25,000/day equals $75,000 in extra cost per vessel—enough to erase profit margins for some traders. Multiplied across 100 cargoes annually, this becomes a systemic burden on national food budgets.

Execution, therefore, is not an abstract concern. It determines whether wheat can be delivered on time, affordably, and reliably. A well-executed trade saves millions; a poorly executed one erodes confidence, triggers inflation, and weakens food security.

Execution Intelligence – Turning Data into Throughput

In the past, success in wheat trading depended primarily on access to origin, competitive pricing, and financing terms. Today, it increasingly hinges on something else: execution intelligence—the ability to move grain efficiently, predict risks, and respond to disruptions in real time.

Execution intelligence is not a single system or technology. It is the fusion of data analytics, process integration, predictive tools, and institutional alignment that enables faster, smarter, and more resilient decision-making across the entire wheat supply chain—from chartering vessels to delivering to flour mills.

What Does Execution Intelligence Include?

1. Port Congestion Forecasting 

Using real-time AIS (Automatic Identification System) data, traders can assess vessel queues at key ports. This allows rerouting, adjusting arrival windows, or switching discharge ports based on forecasted congestion.

2. LC Tracking Dashboards

Letters of credit are central to trade flow. Advanced platforms now allow importers to track approval stages, flag missing documents, and synchronize bank approvals with vessel discharge schedules to avoid idle time at port.

3. Digital Twins of Operations

Leading millers and logistics firms simulate operations using “digital twins”—virtual models of port-to-silo-to-mill processes. These simulations test different traffic patterns, crane utilization, and weather impacts to optimize real-world performance.

4. Integrated Customs Platforms

Digitized customs clearance platforms (like Egypt’s NAFEZA) reduce paperwork and align document flow with discharge operations. When paired with bonded warehouse visibility, they accelerate cargo release and improve transparency.

5. Predictive Logistics Analytics

Machine learning models can now predict trucking delays based on fuel prices, road conditions, and seasonal patterns. This enables importers to pre-book trucks, reroute cargo, or increase buffer stocks.

6. Silo and Storage Synchronization

Some operators are linking port storage data with inland inventory dashboards to manage discharge timing more precisely. This avoids congestion at silos and smooths delivery to millers, especially in peak seasons.

Execution as a Competitive Differentiator

Firms that invest in execution intelligence reduce not only their costs but also their market risk. A trader who can discharge in 5 days instead of 8 may save $75,000 per cargo—enough to outbid competitors or absorb short-term price volatility. For millers, avoiding delivery delays can mean the difference between running full capacity or halting operations.

Execution capability is also increasingly viewed by financiers and counterparties as a risk metric. Banks prefer lending to firms with proven supply chain visibility, customs efficiency, and inventory tracking systems. Governments trust suppliers who can deliver consistently in tight timelines.

Case Example: Private Millers in Egypt

Several large private millers in Egypt have begun building shared logistics platforms. These integrate port discharge schedules, customs timelines, truck dispatch tracking, and silo inventory levels into a single dashboard. The system issues alerts when expected delivery is off-track, enabling rapid intervention.

The result: reduced detention fees, faster turnaround for mills, and improved coordination with the Ministry of Supply when supplying subsidized flour.

Why It Matters for Africa

As climate variability, geopolitical tensions, and trade disruptions increase, execution risk becomes systemic. Execution intelligence helps governments and businesses absorb these shocks. It doesn’t eliminate volatility—but it helps navigate through it.

In the next stage of global grain trade, origin matters. Price matters. But execution is what determines whether a contract delivers food—or just paperwork.

TOWARD REGIONAL COORDINATION – FROM VISION TO GOVERNANCE

For decades, African nations have imported wheat as individual actors—each negotiating tenders, managing logistics, and setting tariffs according to national interests. But with rising costs, volatile prices, and fragmented infrastructure, the case for regional coordination has never been stronger.

The Need for Regional Grain Corridors

Many African countries are landlocked or rely on congested corridors to access imported wheat. For example, Uganda, Rwanda, and parts of the Democratic Republic of Congo depend on Kenya’s Port of Mombasa. Similarly, Ethiopia’s wheat imports flow through Djibouti, while Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger rely on Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.

These corridors are critical but underdeveloped. Roads are narrow and prone to flooding; rail capacity is limited or nonexistent; customs procedures vary across borders. This drives up costs and delays delivery, especially during peak import seasons or crisis periods.

By coordinating investment, harmonizing regulations, and sharing infrastructure, African nations could create regional grain corridors with shared benefits:

• Reduced transport costs and time through pooled rail and trucking capacity.
• Standardized storage and safety protocols to ensure quality across borders.
• Joint procurement platforms to increase buying power and attract suppliers with better terms.

The Promise of Joint Procurement

A regional joint procurement initiative could offer multiple advantages:

• Scale: Instead of each country tendering for 100,000 MT, a regional bloc could tender for 1 million MT at once—achieving better CIF rates and reducing freight fragmentation.
• Diversification: Pooling procurement would allow sourcing from multiple origins in one shipment, reducing dependence on any single supplier.
• Risk sharing: Strategic reserves could be allocated across countries based on need and replenished through common stockpiles.

Pilot models have been proposed for West Africa, particularly involving Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, and Mali. These countries share corridors, milling capacity, and seasonal demand patterns. The idea is not to eliminate national agencies, but to overlay them with a regional coordination layer—much like how the EU conducts joint vaccine procurement or the GCC coordinates energy security.

Barriers to Integration

Despite the appeal, several obstacles remain:

• Sovereignty concerns: Governments are reluctant to cede control over food security to regional mechanisms, fearing backlash if allocations go awry.
• Policy misalignment: Import duties, VAT, and food subsidy systems differ across countries, complicating joint pricing and taxation models.
• Logistical and digital gaps: Without shared tracking systems and interoperable platforms, coordination becomes manual and prone to failure.
• Institutional inertia: Many procurement systems are entrenched and resistant to change, especially if they serve political or patronage functions.

Enabling Tools

Several developments now make regional coordination more feasible:

• AfCFTA (African Continental Free Trade Area): The agreement provides a legal and policy framework for tariff reduction, standards harmonization, and dispute resolution.
• Multilateral Support: The African Development Bank and Afreximbank have proposed funding mechanisms for regional food corridors and strategic reserves.
• Digital Platforms: Initiatives like COMESA’s digital trade corridor and the East African Grain Council’s e-warehouse receipts offer models for scalable information systems.

The Role of Egypt

Egypt, as the continent’s largest importer and most experienced public procurement operator, could play a leadership role in regional integration. By sharing best practices from GASC, supporting digital customs platforms, and hosting grain coordination summits, Egypt can help frame a future where Africa moves from fragmented resilience to coordinated strength.

RECOMMENDATIONS AND OUTLOOK

The past five years have exposed the fragility of global grain systems—and Africa’s wheat supply chains are no exception. Currency devaluations, export bans, geopolitical conflicts, and infrastructure bottlenecks have tested governments, traders, and millers alike. Going forward, the ability to not just procure wheat but to execute its delivery flawlessly will determine who thrives, who survives, and who falls behind.

The following recommendations are drawn from lessons across Egypt and Sub-Saharan Africa, and aim to improve execution resilience in the face of growing uncertainty.

1. Strengthen Hybrid Procurement Models

Governments should continue to manage strategic grain reserves but allow greater room for the private sector to operate in parallel. This hybrid model diversifies supply, enhances speed of response, and limits bottlenecks when public systems are strained.

• Fast-track licensing and FX access for accredited private importers.
• Encourage private-public collaboration during peak seasons or crises.
• Publish transparent schedules for state tenders to help market planning.

2. Invest in Infrastructure That Enables Execution

Execution cannot improve without ports, silos, and roads designed for volume, speed, and coordination. Countries should prioritize:

• Deep-water port upgrades to accommodate larger vessels.
• Modern discharge equipment and berth scheduling systems.
• Inland dry ports near milling hubs to reduce truck congestion.
• Maintenance and expansion of rail connectivity between ports and grain belts.

3. Digitize the Wheat Supply Chain

Digitization is the fastest way to improve visibility, efficiency, and risk mitigation. Governments and importers should:

• Integrate customs clearance systems with port logistics and finance dashboards.
• Promote adoption of bonded warehouse platforms to decongest ports.
• Encourage real-time dashboards for discharge, storage, and delivery tracking.

4. Promote Regional Coordination and Pooling

Regional collaboration could deliver scale, resilience, and efficiency. Steps include:

• Launching pilot joint procurement tenders among countries sharing corridors.
• Coordinating standards for grain quality, safety, and customs classification.
• Pooling strategic reserves across multiple nations using AfCFTA frameworks.
• Funding multi-country infrastructure (e.g. cross-border rail corridors) with blended capital from donors and regional banks.

5. Build Execution Intelligence in Institutions

Whether in ministries, state procurement bodies, or trading firms, execution capabilities must evolve beyond paperwork and contracts.

• Recruit logistics experts, data analysts, and risk managers into wheat supply teams.
• Conduct port flow simulations and stress-tests to preempt crises.
• Develop contingency plans for disruption (e.g. port closures, FX freezes).

Execution intelligence should be viewed as a public good. Donors, multilaterals, and local institutions must co-invest in systems that deliver transparency, precision, and adaptability at every step.

OUTLOOK: FROM VOLUME TO VELOCITY

Wheat will remain a staple for food systems across Africa and the Middle East. But the rules of engagement are shifting. What matters now is not just how much wheat a country can import, but how effectively it can land, move, and mill it.

The next disruption—whether environmental, geopolitical, or financial—is not a matter of if, but when. The countries that will feed their people and protect their economies will be those that treat execution as a strategic asset.

In this new chapter of global grain trade, the winners will not be the ones with the cheapest cargoes, but the ones who get them to flour mills—on time, intact, and with maximum efficiency. Execution over everything.