Kateryna Mudriian
Chief Analyst at ASAP Agri

Inna Stepanenko
Chief Analyst at ASAP Agri

Ukraine’s 2025/26 grain season kicks off under uneven skies. Wheat production is projected to stay near last year’s level, but yield potential is already under pressure from persistent drought and recent frost episodes. On top of that, renewed EU trade restrictions threaten to curb exports. In this analysis, ASAP Agri’s Chief Analysts Inna Stepanenko and Kateryna Mudriian unpack the outlook for both crops.

The new wheat season is just around the corner, but growing conditions in Ukraine remain far from ideal. Persistently low soil moisture continues to cloud production prospects. In the best-case scenario, Ukraine’s wheat harvest may match last year’s volume — but mounting risks make this far from certain. On the export front, volumes are expected to decline as the EU reinstates trade restrictions, posing fresh hurdles for Ukrainian grain exporters.

WEATHER FORMS NEXT CROP

According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food (AgMin), farmers planted 4.76 MHA of winter wheat — the backbone of Ukraine’s wheat crop — for the 2025/26 harvest. This represents an increase of nearly 9% compared to the previous season. Ukrainian farmers are also expanding spring wheat acreage by 31% y/y, targeting 227.5 KHA. As of 22 May, the spring wheat planting campaign was nearly complete, with 215.2 KHA already sown.

Winter wheat in Ukraine was planted under dry conditions, with particularly low soil moisture in the southern and eastern regions. Fortunately, a mild winter without severe frosts allowed the crop to overwinter with minimal losses. While a cold snap in February impacted barley and rapeseed more significantly, wheat remained largely unaffected. Similarly, April’s temperature drop caused only minor, localized damage to the crop.

However, the precipitation deficit persisted through winter and into spring, especially across the southern, eastern, and central regions. This limited both crop development and the accumulation of soil moisture ahead of the spring sowing campaign. Although rains returned in May, bringing some relief, additional moisture is still needed to support yield potential.

In addition, due to the frost events and unseasonably cool temperatures in May, Ukraine’s wheat harvest is now expected to be delayed.

PRODUCTION OUTLOOK: SIMILAR TO LAST YEAR, BUT YIELD RISKS LOOM

An increase in both winter and spring wheat acreage lays the groundwork for potentially higher output in 2025/26. ASAP Agri currently forecasts Ukraine’s wheat production at 23 MMT, broadly in line with the May WASDE estimate. For comparison, the USDA’s final estimate for 2024/25 stands at 23.4 MMT.

At the same time, ASAP Agri expects average wheat yields to decline slightly y/y due to suboptimal weather conditions. Further downward revisions may follow if May rainfall proves insufficient to meaningfully improve crop conditions.

TIGHTER EU MARKET ACCESS CASTS SHADOW OVER UKRAINIAN WHEAT TRADE

Despite a modest increase in production, ASAP Agri forecasts Ukrainian wheat exports to decline to 14.9 MMT in the 2025/26 marketing year — down from 15.5 MMT estimated for the current season. The key driver behind this drop is a significant reduction in access to the EU market.

Starting 6 June 2025, the European Commission will reinstate import quotas on Ukrainian agricultural products, marking a shift away from the liberalized trade regime introduced after the start of russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

Victoria Blazhko
Head of
Editorial Content
and Analytics
ASAP Agri

According to Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri, under the reinstated system, Ukrainian wheat exports to the EU will face the most severe limitations. “Prior to the war, the annual wheat quota stood at 1 MMT. Under the new regime, the quota is expected to be set at about 583 KMT until the end of 2025 — just 7/12 of the standard annual volume, reflecting its mid-year implementation. Any volumes exceeding this threshold will be subject to a 95 EUR/MT tariff,” she explained.

This marks a sharp reversal for Ukraine, which exported over 6.3 MMT of wheat to the EU in 2024 — accounting for two-thirds of the bloc’s total wheat imports. In the current marketing year (July–June), Ukraine remains dominant, with 4.4 MMT already delivered and a 63% share of the EU wheat import market.

Yan Kozyrytskyi
CEO
Atria Brokers

“As a result, Ukraine will likely need to reroute approximately 3 MMT of wheat to alternative markets in 2025/26. While global demand may absorb most of this volume, the sudden shift in trade flows is likely to place downward pressure on Ukrainian wheat prices in the middle term. Exact possible routes for this volume of wheat we will discuss at the Global Grain MENA conference by Fastmarkets on 02-03 July 2025 at Cairo, where I will be the speaker at the panel discussion,” Yan Kozyrytskyi, CEO at Atria Brokers says.

HARVEST DELAY MAY LEND PRICE SUPPORT IN A HEAVY MARKET ENVIRONMENT

Olivier Bouillet
Head of
Analytics & Insights
ASAP Agri

According to Olivier Bouillet, Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri, new-crop Ukrainian wheat prices are already adjusting in anticipation of harvest pressure. Based on the latest CPT prices, the discount between Ukrainian wheat and the Euronext September benchmark currently ranges between 25–35 USD/MT. 

While the Ukrainian harvest is expected to be slightly delayed due to frost episodes and unusually cool temperatures throughout May, early July deliveries may still command a modest premium. However, the sharp reduction in access to the EU market — with European importers now cautious about booking new-crop volumes — is likely to weigh on prices.

In addition, broader competition among exporters is expected to intensify. Russian wheat is currently offered at mid-to high 220 USD/MT FOB for early-season shipments, while French wheat continues to struggle to find outlets for July–September, particularly as Algerian buyers remain hesitant due to ongoing diplomatic tensions with France.

For now, weather remains the only variable with the potential to trigger a sustained bullish trend in what remains a well-supplied global wheat market.

CONCLUSION

Ukraine’s wheat sector enters the 2025/26 season with expanded acreage but limited upside. Persistent weather challenges, delayed harvest timelines, and the looming impact of EU trade restrictions are creating a complex outlook. While production may hold steady, shifting trade flows and heightened competition are likely to weigh on export performance and prices. In the near term, weather remains the key wildcard — with much riding on how the coming weeks unfold.

*Fresh results from the wheat fields of the Black Sea will be discussed closely at the Global Grain MENA conference by Fastmarkets on 02-03 July 2025 at Cairo, Egypt. Within the Panel discussion Grain Trade Dynamics in the Black Sea: Ukraine, Romania, and Moldova’s Evolving Landscape, moderated by Christina Serebriakova, CEO at ASAP Agri, participants will follow the changes in the trading flows, which are always closely monitored by ASAP Agri specially for its Premium subscribers.