Mikhail Kurashov
Head of Analytics
Russian National Association of Pasta Manufactures (RNAPM)

Once a dominant supplier of high-quality durum wheat to Mediterranean markets, Russia is now striving to reclaim its historic legacy. As pasta consumption rises and global trade routes shift, can Russia revive its “Taganrog” wheat reputation and reestablish itself on the world stage?

HISTORY OF DURUM WHEAT IN RUSSIA

Durum wheat was an important agricultural crop in the Russian Empire, valued for its high quality and appreciated by buyers in the Mediterranean, especially in Italy. This wheat,

known as “Taganrog” after the Russian port city on the Sea of Azov, became synonymous with premium grain in Mediterranean ports, much like “Manitoba” wheat from Canada later did. Italian mills and pasta manufacturers prized it for its high protein content and excellent milling yields. Throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries, Italy actively imported durum wheat from the Russian Empire. Even today, some Italian pasta producers reference the historical quality lineage linked to Taganrog wheat.

After the 1917 Revolution, exports of Russian durum wheat ceased, and Russia lost its position as a supplier of high-quality durum wheat to global markets—a position it has yet to fully reclaim. Today, Russia ranks as the world’s leading exporter and third-largest producer of common (soft) wheat, but in the durum wheat segment, its role is much smaller. Russia currently produces about 1.4 million tonnes of durum wheat annually (five-year average), approximately 4% of global production. Exports fluctuate between 100,000 and 630,000 tonnes, representing 1–7% of global trade. At the same time, Russia does not have any fundamental agroclimatic, logistical or other barriers to increasing the production and export of durum wheat.

DURUM WHEAT PRODUCTION IN MODERN RUSSIA

In recent years, Russia has steadily expanded its durum wheat acreage (Figure 1). This growth is driven by several factors: rising demand from pasta manufacturers (due to consumer preference shifting towards high-quality pasta made from durum wheat), and growing pasta exports to neighboring post-Soviet states such as Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Belarus.

Figure 1. Durum Wheat Acreage in Russia, thousand hectares (Source: RNAPM**, Rosstat)

Another important driver is the price premium durum wheat commands over soft wheat, averaging 20–30%, and reaching up to 100–120% in poor harvest years. However, farmers can only achieve these premiums if they produce high-quality durum wheat meeting pasta producers’ standards. Otherwise, lower-quality durum is sold at soft wheat prices.

In terms of the ratio between winter and spring durum wheat, Russia presents an opposite situation compared to soft wheat. While winter soft wheat accounts for about 54% of the total sown area, winter durum wheat occupies only around 10% and is grown mainly in the southern regions of Russia, such as Krasnodar Krai, Stavropol Krai, and the Rostov region. These three regions are among the largest soft wheat producers in Russia, and the grain produced there is primarily intended for export. About 90% of Russian durum wheat comes from spring sowing, which takes place in April and May. The main harvest of durum wheat in Russia begins in late August and continues through September. Therefore, the grain marketing season for Russian durum wheat is traditionally considered to run from September to August, while for soft wheat it spans from June to July.

Regarding durum wheat production at the regional level in Russia, the main volume — about 55% — is concentrated in two regions: Orenburg and Chelyabinsk oblasts. These regions are located in the foothills of the Ural Mountains, on the border with Kazakhstan, and they produce the bulk of Russia’s highest-quality durum wheat. The distance from these areas to the ports of the Azov Sea, from which most of Russia’s durum wheat is exported, is about 1,500 to 2,000 kilometers. The remaining volumes are cultivated across a wide area stretching from Western Siberia and the foothills of the Altai Mountains to the western regions of the Volga area (including Saratov, Samara, Volgograd, and other oblasts). More detailed information on the regions where durum wheat is grown is presented in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Durum wheat sown areas in Russia by region in 2024, thousand hectares (Source: RNAPM, Rosstat)

The climate in the main durum wheat growing zone in Russia (eastern Orenburg region and southern Chelyabinsk region) is dry, continental, and relatively similar to the prairies of Saskatchewan, Canada, characterized by very hot summers and annual precipitation of about 300–400 mm. As a result, the main focus of agronomic practices is on moisture conservation in the soil, and farmers often use fallow systems or no-till farming. The average yield in these two regions is about 0.9–1.5 tons per hectare. Irrigation is rarely used for durum wheat crops in Russia, with only a few exceptions.

In recent years, durum wheat yields in Russia have fluctuated significantly depending on the amount of rainfall. Figure 3 shows durum wheat yields in Russia over the past five years.

Figure 3. Durum wheat yields in Russia, tons per hectare (Source: RNAPM, Rosstat)

Thus, in 2020 and 2021, due to extremely dry conditions, yields were only 0.9–1 tons per hectare, which caused durum wheat prices (especially in the 2021/2022 season) to rise sharply. The best year in terms of both yield and grain quality was 2022, when sufficient rainfall occurred during critical growth stages, resulting in a record-high yield of 1.8 tons per hectare. 

The following two years, 2023 and 2024, were favorable for achieving high yields but unfavorable for quality. Prolonged rainfall during the harvest period severely affected grain quality, with a very high share of sprouted grain — from 10% to 50% — and only about 25% of the harvest meeting the quality standards required for pasta production. Due to this factor, and to protect the domestic market from a shortage of durum wheat for pasta producers, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture introduced a temporary export ban on durum wheat from December 1, 2023, to May 31, 2024. This decision was negatively received by farmers and exporters. Nevertheless, sown areas in 2024 increased by 25% compared to 2023, further confirming the attractiveness of durum wheat cultivation compared to soft wheat for farming enterprises. The price trend for durum and soft wheat is shown in Figure 4. As seen from the chart, over the past eight years, prices for high-quality durum wheat have been 30–120% higher than those for soft wheat, making durum an attractive niche crop for farms, provided high-quality grain is achieved.

Figure 4. Prices for 3rd grade durum and soft wheat in the Volga region, RUB/kg excluding VAT (delivered to mill) (Source: RNAPM)

One of the key bottlenecks hindering the development of the Russian durum wheat market was the lack of official production data. However, thanks to the efforts of the industry community — including our association (RNAPM) — and the Ministry of Agriculture, starting in 2024, Rosstat (the official statistical agency of Russia) began publishing data on the sown areas, yields, and total production of durum wheat in Russia. These data are now provided separately for winter and spring durum wheat production.

In 2024, Russia’s total durum wheat production reached 2.0 million tons, marking a record high for the entire post-Soviet period. This result was achieved thanks to a 25% increase in the area under durum wheat cultivation, combined with a surplus of soil moisture. The production dynamics of durum wheat over the past five years are shown in Figure 5.

Figure 5. Total durum wheat production in Russia, thousand tons Source: RNAPM, Rosstat

EXPORT OF DURUM WHEAT FROM RUSSIA

Durum wheat exports from Russia vary depending on the season. Just five years ago, they amounted to about 100 thousand tons per year. A record volume of durum wheat was shipped in the 2023/2024 season, reaching 636 thousand tons (from September to August). In the 2022/2023 season, 557 thousand tons were exported, with 59% of this volume shipped to Italy, followed by Turkey with 22%, and Tunisia with a smaller share of 16%. More details are shown in Figure 6. 

Figure 6.

The 2023/2024 season became a record year for durum wheat exports, reaching 636 thousand tons, but the majority of this export was based on the 2022 harvest, which was favorable both in terms of quantity and quality. In December 2023, a ban was introduced on durum wheat exports from Russia, which undoubtedly affected the final figures for the season. Italy remained the leading buyer, with a 50% share, while EU countries as a whole accounted for 55%, making up the bulk of Russia’s durum wheat exports in this season. Turkey was in second place again, with a 21% share, and Tunisia’s share slightly increased from 16% in the 2022/2023 season to 19% in the 2023/2024 season. More details on the 2023/2024 export season are shown in Figure 7.

Figure 7.

Overall, 2024 can be characterized as the year of bans for Russian durum wheat, which significantly altered the geography of its exports. On June 1, 2024, the ban on durum wheat exports from Russia was lifted, but by July 1, the European Union introduced an import duty of 148 EUR per ton on Russian durum wheat, effectively banning shipments from Russia. Additionally, Turkey introduced a ban on wheat imports, including durum, on June 21, which will remain in effect until May 31, 2025. Given Turkey’s durum wheat stockpiles, it is likely that this ban will be extended further. As a result, as of today, shipments of Russian durum wheat to the two main buyers — Italy and Turkey — have become impossible, significantly narrowing the geography of exports.

The geography of exports in the current 2024/25 season has changed significantly due to the restrictions described above. In previous years, Russian durum wheat was purchased by 5-7 countries, but now, in essence, there are only two main buyers left: Tunisia and Algeria. In the first five months of the 2024/25 season (from September to January), 223 thousand tons, or 79%, were shipped to Tunisia, and 56 thousand tons, or 20%, to Algeria. Thus, North African countries have become the key region for Russian durum wheat. As of today, Russian shipments account for more than 50% of Tunisia’s tender, although Russian companies do not participate directly in the tenders but instead ship grain based on the contracts of the winning bidders. There are also direct shipments to Tunisian companies, but these constitute a small share.

Since Algeria has stricter quality requirements for durum wheat compared to Tunisia (especially regarding vitreousness of 75% and above), and considering the excess rainfall in Russia’s durum wheat-growing regions over the past two years, the vitreousness level is low, and the supply of such grain is limited.

However, given that Mexico, one of the major suppliers of durum wheat to Algeria, will not export grain in the current season, Russian exporters have the opportunity to form shipments of grain with the required quality and deliver them to Algeria, provided that soft wheat shipments to the country remain at a very high level, partly due to the strong diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Another potential buyer of Russian durum wheat is Morocco. In the current season, from July 1, 2024, to April 23, 2025, exports of soft wheat from Russia to Morocco increased from 431 thousand tons to 1,080 thousand tons, up by 150.6% compared to the previous season, indicating the absence of any significant political restrictions.

The only important constraint for durum wheat exports to Morocco is the very high quality standards, which are currently met by Canadian suppliers shipping the highest quality durum – CWAD No. 1. To compete with Canadian durum, Russia needs to saturate the market with varieties that have a high carotenoid content, as color is an important indicator for Moroccan importers. Despite the active work of breeders to develop new varieties with a high carotenoid content in the endosperm, Russian varieties are still insufficiently strong in this characteristic.

In addition to external export restrictions, there are internal ones established by the Russian government. The first restriction is the floating export duty on wheat (both soft and durum), which is set weekly based on the exchange rate of the US dollar and the average export price of soft wheat on an FOB basis. At the time of writing, the duty was approximately USD 26 per ton. The second restriction is the export quota, which also applies to all wheat, both soft and durum. The quota has been introduced annually from February 15 to June 31 since 2021. In the current grain season, the quota amounted to 10.6 million tons. The main part of the quota (90%) is distributed among exporters based on a “historical” principle, and the additional part is formed from 10% of the total quota volume and the volumes released due to refusals or underuse. In terms of its impact on durum wheat exports, this restriction is significant because companies exporting specifically durum wheat do not always receive access to the quota.

PROSPECTS FOR THE 2025/2026 SEASON

The sowing of spring durum wheat in Russia usually begins in April in the southern and black soil regions and gradually moves eastward toward the Ural Mountains and Western Siberia, ending in late May or early June. According to industry estimates, in 2025, a slight reduction in sown area by 5% is expected, from 1.23 million hectares to 1.17 million hectares. Assuming an average yield of around 1.38 tons per hectare, the gross harvest of durum wheat could reach 1.6 million tons. If weather conditions allow for the production of high-quality durum wheat (with protein content of at least 14%, vitreousness of 70% or higher, test weight of 790 g/L, etc.), Russian exporters will be able to strongly compete in the North African markets, primarily with shipments to Tunisia and Algeria.

We estimate the export potential for the new season at 500–600 thousand tons. Domestic demand for durum wheat for pasta production is also growing and is estimated at around 900–950 thousand tons. The Russian pasta market is highly competitive, with more than 40 companies, but three major players stand out: Makfa, SI Group, and Barilla, which together account for 60% of pasta production from durum wheat. All three companies are founding members of our association.

Thus, to form a sustainable domestic market and meet export potential of around 500 thousand tons, Russian farmers must produce at least 2–2.5 million tons of durum wheat, which, as practice shows, is a quite achievable target.