Despite mounting trade uncertainties, Canada’s grain industry continues to stand strong with its high-quality production, resilient supply chain, and diversified global market presence. In an exclusive interview for Miller Magazine, Leif Carlson, Director of Market Intelligence and Trade Policy at Cereals Canada, shares his insights on recent trade tensions and how Canada is preparing to handle these challenges.

Leif Carlson
Director of Market Intelligence and
Trade Policy at Cereals Canada

In an interview for the April issue of Miller Magazine, Leif Carlson, Director of Market Intelligence and Trade Policy at Cereals Canada, assessed the implications of ongoing trade uncertainties with the U.S. and China for Canada’s grain sector. “The United States is Canada’s largest market for oats, the second-largest for barley, and a key destination for wheat and durum,” Carlson emphasized. “Avoiding tariffs is a critical step in keeping food affordable for North Americans,” he added, underlining the importance of maintaining tariff-free trade for the benefit of both Canadian farmers and consumers.

As trade dynamics continue to shift, Canada is actively working to expand its presence in regions such as the Indo-Pacific and Latin America. “We continue to invest in market development and work closely with the government to diversify and strengthen our trade relationships,” Carlson noted. Cereals Canada, leading efforts to develop and diversify markets in collaboration with the government, emphasizes Canada’s reliability as a producer of high-quality grain. “Even during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Black Sea conflict, and the 2021 drought, we delivered to global customers,” Carlson affirmed.

As the voice of the Canadian cereals sector, Cereals Canada plays a leading role in supporting exporters, growers, and processors by promoting Canadian grain quality, providing technical expertise, and ensuring international buyers remain confident in Canadian supply. Canada’s wheat, barley, and oats sectors contribute $68.8 billion annually to the economy and support 372,000 full-time equivalent jobs.

Here’s the full interview with Leif Carlson as he addresses the challenges and opportunities facing Canada’s grain industry.

Which Canadian grain products are expected to be most affected by the new tariffs announced by USA and China? How significant are these products in Canada’s overall grain exports? How do you anticipate these tariffs will impact key Canadian agricultural exports?

We were able to avoid tariffs with last week’s announcement but continued trade uncertainty with the United States will have a large impact on our sector. It’s important to remember that the United States is Canada’s fifth largest market for non-durum wheat, fourth largest market for durum wheat, second largest market for barley and largest market for oats. We have an integrated supply chain with U.S. food processors and it’s been beneficial for food processors farmers and North American customers.

Beyond the United States, Canadian cereals have a broad market presence, and Canadian wheat and durum are sold to over eighty countries worldwide, making it essential that Canadian cereal farmers and the supply chain that supports them remain competitive internationally.  

How have the recent U.S. tariffs on Canadian grain products affected Canadian wheat prices and the overall grain market?

Canadian grain products are currently not subject to tariffs into the U.S. Canadian cereals remain important ingredients for U.S. food processors and keeping tariffs off food is a critical step in keeping food affordable for North Americans. 

How are these measures impacting Canadian grain farmers? Could farmers shift away from certain crops due to the trade challenges? How does Cereals Canada advise on this?

Ensuring access to affordable and reliable inputs is critical to maintaining the productivity and competitiveness of Canadian farmers. By avoiding reciprocal tariffs, Canada can continue to support a resilient agricultural sector that contributes to global food security and economic stability.

We know that Canadian farmers have many options in the crops that they grow. There is uncertainty in the current trade environment and global markets for Canadian wheat and durum. As of early April, Canadian cereals still have tariff-free access to the U.S. market. We’ve seen that cereals are strong planting options for Canadian farmers and we expect that farmers will continue to plant wheat, oats and barley this spring. 

With ongoing trade challenges, how does Cereals Canada see the Canadian government’s role evolving to support grain farmers, and what existing programs are aiding market diversification efforts?

I think that with the trade challenges Canadian agriculture is facing, there are going to be a lot of opportunities for discussion as how government can support Canadian grain farmers. Our members include cereal grower associations from across the country and will look to their engagement on that.

Cereals Canada plays the leading role in promoting Canadian cereals into export markets and our work to grow demand for Canadian cereals have resulted in diversified markets. Canadian government support, through programs like AgriMarketing, have and continue to be an important part of funding and supporting market growth and diversification efforts. We think the Government of Canada can do more to support export-oriented agriculture too achieve market growth and diversification.

Given the current trade tensions with both the U.S, is the Canadian grain industry exploring new markets to reduce reliance on these partners? 

For the Canadian cereals sector, Cereals Canada is always looking for new market opportunities. We play an important role in sharing about Canada’s high-quality and year-to-year consistency of our grain. Our technical team and market development activities ensure our customers understand how Canadian cereal grains supports their end-products.

Do you see a path to restoring stable trade with the U.S., or is the industry preparing for prolonged uncertainty?

We’ve seen a lot of trade uncertainty so far in 2025.  The answer to the question of how long trade disruptions will last is the question probably better asked to policy makers in the United States and elsewhere. With our extensive grain and protein production, Canada is well-positioned as a global food supplier and we will have to continue to adapt to what’s ahead of us.

CANADA’S EXPANDING GRAIN HORIZONS

How does Cereals Canada assess the long-term impact of these tariffs on the competitiveness of Canadian grain? Beyond immediate responses, what long-term strategies is the Canadian grain industry considering to address the changing global trade landscape and ensure sustainability? 

Canada will remain a major grain exporter and will continue to think about all global markets. In the 2024-2025 crop year, Canada is expected to export 26.2 million tonnes of wheat to over 80 different countries, making us the second largest wheat exporter and the top exporter of high-quality high protein wheat. Canada is known for its high-quality wheat, durum, barley and oats.

We understand the value of effective multilateral trade agreements and our members have direct interests in expanded access to global markets and predictable rules-based trade.  

Regional engagement is also important. We’ve been very supportive of increased Canadian engagement in the Indo-Pacific region for example.  We were early supporters of the Indo-Pacific Agriculture and Agri-Food Office. We hope that joint government and industry work can establish market access for Canadian grains where necessary and that this will allow our members to take advantage of commercial opportunities in that region.

Earlier this year, Canada announced that the government has completed negotiations toward a Canada-Ecuador free-trade agreement. Canadian cereals are already well established in the Latin American marketplace and there’s an opportunity to grow for crops like barley and oats.

What assurance can you give global buyers about the reliability of Canadian grain despite geopolitical trade challenges?

Canada’s track record is positive when it comes to our reliability as a grain supplier. Canada kept active in the marketplace during the COVID-19 pandemic. We were there for our customers when the Black Sea war broke out and the markets were facing instability and even when Canada had a major drought in 2021. Canadian farmers were still able to harvest a decent crop supply and deliver it to global consumers. Canada remains a strong trading nation.  

CANADA’S 2025 CROP OUTLOOK

What are the current production forecasts for key Canadian grain crops like wheat, barley, and canola for the upcoming season?

Based on the most recent Outlook for Principal Field Crops released in March 2025 by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canadian wheat production is forecast at 34.5 million tonnes for the 2025 growing season. Barley production is forecast at 8.1 million tonnes, and oat production is forecast at 3.4 million tonnes.

This outlook incorporates Statistics Canada’s estimates of the area seeded to principal field crops, which is based on a survey of Canadian farmers conducted between December 2024 and January 2025. The impact of any changes to farmers’ planting intentions after January 2025 is not yet known. Seeding of spring wheat, barley, and oats in Western Canada typically takes place between May and mid-June.

Lastly, what key message would you like to share with the global grain industry about Canada’s role and the future of grain trade?

Canada’s cereals value chain remains committed to growing high-quality crops that are ingredients for food products around the world. Our industry has continued to invest in our supply chain to increase production and grain handling capacity while maintaining our quality. Even with the current trade uncertainties, demand for food will continue to grow and Canada will meet that demand.

About Cereals Canada

Cereals Canada is the national, not-for-profit, industry association representing the Canadian cereal grains value chain. We value relationships and work with government and stakeholders to provide timely, expert technical information and deliver best-in-class customer experience. We are dedicated to supporting the Canadian cereals value chain including farmers, exporters, developers, processors, and our customers around the world with a focus on trade, science, and sustainability. Each year, Canada’s wheat, barley, and oats sectors contribute 68.8 billion dollars in economic impact to the Canadian economy and contribute 372,000 full-time equivalent jobs in Canada.