Kateryna Mudriian
Chief Analyst at ASAP Agri

Inna Stepanenko
Chief Analyst at ASAP Agri

In this special feature, ASAP Agri’s Chief Analysts Inna Stepanenko and Kateryna Mudriian unpack the evolving dynamics in U.S.-China trade and examine whether the Black Sea region — particularly Ukraine, Russia, and Romania — is ready to step in and fill the gap left by the U.S. absence in Chinese imports, or whether South America will ultimately capture the lion’s share of demand.  

In a bold and controversial move, the U.S. imposed 10–34% tariffs in early April on many of its key agricultural trade partners. Although these measures were suspended for 90 days, a 10% baseline tariff remains in force, and the risk of higher rates returning remains very real.

By penalizing its own top customers, the U.S. risks triggering a broader wave of retaliatory measures. So far, only China has responded decisively, locking the world’s two largest economies into a renewed and rapidly escalating trade war. Meanwhile, the EU has suspended its 25% tariff on U.S. corn until 14 July to allow time for negotiations.

Chinese imports were hit with the highest tariff yet — 145% — imposed by the U.S. with no 90-day pause, unlike measures directed at other countries. In retaliation, China struck back with tariffs of 140% on U.S. corn and wheat, and 135% on soybeans. The situation echoes the 2018/19 trade war, when Chinese soybean imports from the U.S. collapsed following a 25% tariff. But this time, the stakes are far higher. Tariffs are steeper, and China is better positioned — having diversified its supply chains, strengthened ties with Brazil and Argentina, and invested heavily in its own agricultural sector.

CORN

China’s corn imports have plunged this season, with just 1.15 MMT brought in between October and February — a sharp decline from 18.5 MMT during the same period last year. The U.S. has been completely shut out, while Ukraine has managed to retain a presence despite the ongoing war. Brazil, though supplying relatively low volumes, has remained China’s primary corn supplier, a position it solidified after the 2022 phytosanitary agreement. 

Given the currently subdued level of import demand, China can easily manage without U.S. corn this season. In its April outlook, the USDA projected China’s corn imports at 8 MMT for the 2024/25 marketing year, while China’s Ministry of Agriculture offered a slightly lower estimate of 7 MMT. However, many market analysts consider these figures overly optimistic, with some suggesting that actual imports could drop to as low as 2 MMT.

Artem Rozhkov
Co-Founder of
Atria Brokers

“Looking ahead to the new marketing season, China’s ability to fully replace U.S. corn will largely depend on how demand evolves. If demand remains subdued, China’s needs can likely be met — primarily by Brazil, with Ukraine playing a secondary role. However, if import volumes rebound sharply — as China has done unexpectedly in the past — relying solely on Brazil and Ukraine may prove insufficient, making supply diversification more complex and challenging” said Artem Rozhkov, Co-Founder of Atria Brokers.

Should China’s corn import requirements exceed 10 MMT, Brazil would also remain the primary fallback, with Ukraine serving as a secondary source — though both may face capacity constraints if demand rebounds sharply. In that case, China is more likely to turn to Argentina, the world’s third-largest corn exporter, rather than increase purchases from other Black Sea suppliers, whose export potential remains limited.

For now, Argentinian corn exports to China are minimal, but a path has been opened. In May 2024, China approved the import of two herbicide-tolerant genetically modified corn varieties grown in Argentina — paving the way for future trade when demand rises.

Other potential suppliers face more structural limitations. Russia, for instance, has a maximum export capacity of around 7 MMT, but actual volumes shipped to China remain minimal. Between October and March this season, Russia supplied just under 100 KMT of corn to China — a decline from 156 KMT during the same period in 2023/24.

Among other Black Sea players, Bulgaria is authorized to export corn to China and could provide limited volumes of up to 500 KMT. However, Romania remains unauthorized, despite its geographic proximity and substantial production potential.

BEYOND CHINA: WHERE TO LOOK FOR DEMAND?

While China remains out of reach this season — and future prospects remain uncertain — Black Sea grain exporters, particularly Ukraine, Romania, and Russia, continue to hold firm in MENA markets and Turkey. Among them, Ukrainian corn remains a staple for Turkish buyers, while grain from Russia, Romania, and Bulgaria has seen more limited traction in these regions. With steady consumption and import needs in both MENA and Turkey, demand for Black Sea grain is expected to remain strong in the upcoming season as well.

For Ukrainian corn, the European Union is expected to remain the primary outlet in the upcoming season, especially with the looming threat of tariffs on U.S. corn imports. Under typical conditions, Ukraine supplies more than half of the EU’s imported corn volumes. However, this season brought an unexpected shift: U.S. corn exports to Europe surged to 2 MMT, capturing 16% of total EU corn imports — a dramatic increase from just 182 KMT a year earlier.

Olivier Bouillet
Head of Analytics
& Insights at
ASAP Agri.

This surge was largely driven by strong U.S. price competitiveness, particularly following President Trump’s return to office, notes Olivier Bouillet, Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri.

However, the competitive edge of U.S. corn may be short-lived. While the EU is expected to extend its zero-tariff policy for Ukrainian corn beyond 5 June 2025, Washington’s tariff-free access remains uncertain. Although U.S.–EU trade tensions are currently paused through early July, the threat of a 25% tariff snapback on U.S. corn looms large.

“If these tariffs return, it would undercut U.S. corn’s cost advantage,” says Bouillet. “At the same time, a potentially large Ukrainian harvest in 2025 — driven by expanded acreage and improved yields — would boost export availability and put downward pressure on domestic prices. That combination could sharply enhance Ukraine’s competitiveness in the EU market.”

In that case, Ukraine wouldn’t just regain lost ground — it could expand its share even further in the new season.

WHEAT

In the 2023/24 MY, the U.S. accounted for 14% (1.8 MMT) of China’s wheat imports.

In the first nine months of the 2024/25 MY (July–March), the U.S. share rose to 22%, although this represented just under 500 KMT, compared to 9% (about 800 KMT) in the same period of the previous season. However, it’s worth noting that no U.S. wheat shipments were recorded between January and March 2024/25, while deliveries continued steadily during that same period in 2023/24.

Moreover, China’s total wheat imports in 2024/25 (July-March) have reached just 2.1 MMT — a sharp decline from 8.2 MMT during the same period in 2023/24, underscoring weaker demand. According to the April WASDE report, China’s wheat imports for the full 2024/25 season are projected at just 3.5 MMT, a significant drop from the 13.6 MMT estimated for the previous year. Based on this forecast, China had already covered around 60% of its projected import needs by April.

Given the sharp drop in expected wheat imports this season, China’s overall demand has declined significantly — not only for U.S. wheat but for all origins. As a result, replacing U.S. wheat for the remainder of the season is relatively straightforward, despite the limited pool of authorized suppliers.

Australia, Canada, and France have traditionally been China’s top wheat suppliers, followed by Kazakhstan and Russia. However, volumes from the latter two remain relatively modest: Kazakhstan supplied just under 700 KMT in 2023/24, while Russian wheat imports totaled only 300 KMT.

These five exporters are currently the most likely candidates to fill any supply gaps should trade tensions with the U.S. persist — and they are expected to do so even if China’s import requirements rebound to as much as 10 MMT next season, as some analysts predict.

The ongoing trade conflict with the U.S. could accelerate China’s long-delayed decision to lift its ban on Russian winter wheat imports, potentially boosting volumes supplied by Russia. The ban, imposed in the mid-1970s, stems from concerns over a fungal disease that can reduce yields and quality in certain Russian growing regions. Although discussions to remove the restriction have taken place, the ban remains in place. As of now, China only permits imports of Russian spring wheat.

Meanwhile, other Black Sea origins — such as Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria — remain absent from China’s wheat market, primarily due to regulatory and phytosanitary restrictions.

POTENTIAL GLOBAL SHIFT TO BLACK SEA WHEAT UNLIKELY

A global shift in demand toward Black Sea wheat appears unlikely — even in the event of retaliatory trade measures targeting U.S. wheat exports. An analysis of the top five destinations for Ukrainian, Russian, and Romanian wheat, compared with the top buyers of U.S. wheat, reveals minimal overlap, as these exporters largely serve distinct markets.

As a result, if major importers of U.S. wheat impose tariffs or reduce purchases in response to trade tensions, they are more likely to turn to established suppliers such as Australia and Canada, rather than pivot toward the Black Sea region.

Adding to this trend, Indonesia — one of the world’s largest wheat buyers — has signaled its readiness to increase imports of U.S. products, including wheat, while reducing purchases from current suppliers. This move is part of a broader strategy to reduce its trade surplus with the U.S. and avoid potential tariffs under the Trump administration.

The Indonesian Wheat Flour Producers Association has backed the government’s decision, noting that it would support the shift as long as market prices and competitiveness remain favorable. Between July and February of the 2024/25 marketing year, Indonesia imported 256 KMT of U.S. wheat, reflecting its growing strategic importance in U.S. agricultural trade.

CAN THE BLACK SEA FILL THE U.S. GAP IN CHINA?

In summary, when it comes to the Black Sea region, Ukrainian corn currently appears best positioned to benefit from the U.S. tariff wars — but only under two conditions: first, if China’s import demand increases in the upcoming season; and second, if the EU reinstates the 25% tariff on U.S. corn in July.

As for other Black Sea suppliers, they are unlikely to see significant changes in export flows, particularly in the wheat segment. The notable exception is Russia, which could gain ground if China finally lifts its long-standing ban on Russian winter wheat imports.

*At ASAP Agri, we’re closely monitoring every twist in this evolving trade conflict. Our team has produced a series of in-depth analytical materials exploring its impact on global grain flows, trade policy, and market positioning. Subscribe to ASAP Premium Reports — your live analytics for every day!