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World corn market and the latest situation

09 February 201610 min reading
According to the report of International Grains Council (IGC) dated 21 January 2016; corn production of the world which was 871 million tons in 2012/13 season has reached to 997 million tons in 2013/14 season. According to the forecast of IGC; world corn production started to rise and reached to 1.013 billion tons in 2014/15 season. IGC’s forecast for 2015/16 season points out 959 million tons with a decrease of 54 million tons. However, this forecast points out a significant decrease in increasing corn production, which can be counted as a record. h_74_arastrma Corn which is cultivated on nearly 180 million hectare (178.6 million hectare in 2014/15 season) in the world came third after wheat (224.8 million hectare in 2014/15 season) and rice (158.9 million hectare in 2014/15 season) in terms of cultivation area in the past. But today it is the second after wheat. According to the data of U.S. Department of Agriculture for 2014/15 season; China has the biggest share with 37.1 million hectare when the cultivated area of corn considered. Although USA is the leader in terms of yields, it comes right after China with 33.6 million hectare in sense of the width of cultivated areas. Brazil is also the third with 15.8 million hectare. WORLD CORN PRODUCTION AND PRODUCER COUNTRIES According to the report of International Grains Council (IGC) dated 21 January 2016; corn production of the world which was 871 million tons in 2012/13 season has reached to 997 million tons in 2013/14 season. According to the forecast of IGC; world corn production started to rise and reached to 1.013 billion tons in 2014/15 season. IGC’s forecast for 2015/16 season points out 959 million tons with a decrease of 54 million tons. However, this forecast points out a significant decrease in increasing corn production, which can be counted as a record. When the end of period stocks of ICG viewed, it is seen that world corn stocks which was 131 million tons in 2012/13 season reached to 180 million tons in 2013/14 season and to 205 million tons in 2014/15 season. IGC forecasts that stocks would reach around 196 million tons in 2015/16 season. The highest corn production in the world by years belongs to USA. According to the data of USDA; USA provides 361 million tons of world corn production which was 1.008 billion tons in 2014/15 season. There is a decrease of 16 million tons in the forecasted production amount of USA for 2015/16 season. According to this, this season USA will produce 345.4 million tons of corn. China comes second after USA in terms of corn production. Corn production of China which was 218.4 million tons in 2013/14 season decreased to 215.6 million tons in season 2014/15. In 2013/14 season, it is forecasted that it would reach to 224.5 million tons of production with an increase of 9 million tons in 2015/16 season. USA and China meet alone more than half of world corn production which was 1.008 billion tons (2014/15). Brazil follows them with 85 million tons of production. EU countries coming right after Brazil reached to 75.7 million tons of production by obtaining a growth of 9 million tons in 2014/15 season when compared to the previous season. Ukraine with 28.4 million tons, Argentina with 26.5 million tons, Mexico with 25.4 million tons, India with 23.6 million tons, Canada with 11.4 million tons and Russia with 11.3 million tons, South Africa with 10.8 million tons and Indonesia with 8.8 million tons follow the EU countries. EU and USA have the highest decrease rate in corn production in 2015/16 season. It is forecasted that corn production of EU will decrease 18 million tons and this is 16 million tons for USA. Also, the highest growth is expected from China with an increase of 9 million tons. WORLD CORN CONSUMPTION AND CONSUMER COUNTRIES Corn is one of the most important staple foods along with wheat and rice in developing countries. Particularly in Sub-Sahara and Latin American countries, corn that nearly half of the population consumes is preferred by approximately 900 million people around the world. Corn is also one of the most preferred grains as animal feed around the world. It is forecasted that corn would be the most consumed food product in developing countries by 2025. In addition, that yield of corn would reduce and developing countries will have to import more amounts is one the forecasts. Currently, USA is the biggest consumer of corn. A decrease of 15 million tons in the country’s consumption was seen along with the decrease in production in 2012/13 season. However, in 2013/14 season, production showed rise and reached to 292.9 million tons. The forecasted consumption amount of USA for 2014/15 season which is nearly 301.8 million tons is expected to remain around the same in 2015/16. The largest consumption amount after USA belongs to China. The consumption amount of China in 2011/12 season which is 188 million tons has increased to 208 million tons in 2013/14 season and decreased to 202 million tons with 6 million tons in 2014/15 season. It is seen that the forecasted consumption amount of China is nearly 214 million tons in 2015/16 season. So, the growth rate of China’s corn consumption will continue its upward movement in 2015/16 season. USA and China form alone more than 50 percent of the corn consumption which is 975 million tons (2014/15) as it is in production. EU countries come right after USA and China in corn consumption. The forecasted consumption amounts of EU countries for 2014/15 season is 78 million tons. The consumption is forecasted to reach almost 76 million tons for 2015/16 season. Another country having high consumption amount is Brazil. Brazil consumed 57 million tons of corn in 2014/15 season; this amount is 2 million tons over than the previous season. It is forecasted that consumption in Brazil would reach to 59 million tons in 2015/16 season. Mexico with 34.4 million tons, India with 22 million tons, Japan with 14.7 million tons, and Egypt with 13.9 million tons and Canada with 12.8 million tons follow Brazil in world corn consumption. WORLD CORN TRADE Almost 120-130 million tons of world corn production takes part in international trade. When the world’s largest corn producers viewed, the majority of the produced amount seems to be directed to domestic consumption. According to the report of IGC; corn trade which was 100 million tons in 2012/13 season reached to 122 million tons in 2013/14 season and to 125 million tons in 2014/15 season. IGC forecasts that corn amount in world trade in 2015/16 will remain at 125 million tons. According to the data of USDA; the largest share in corn trade for 2014/15 season belongs to USA with 46.7 million tons. USA corn export showed an increase of 32 million tons in 2013/14 season compared to the previous season and remained at 50.6 million tons. It is forecasted that the country’s export amount which started to decrease in 2014/15 season would continue to decrease in 2015/16 season and remain at 43.5 million tons. The second largest corn exporter country after USA is Brazil. Brazil, which showed an important increase in 2012/13 season compared to the previous seasons, carried 26 million dollars of corn export. However, the decrease in trade staring in 2013/14 season continued in 2014/15 season too and the country’s corn exports remained at 21.9 million tons. In 2014/15 season, a significant growth is expected. According to the data of USDA, Brazil will export 35 million tons of corn in 2015/16 season. According to the data of 2014/15 season; the third largest corn exporter country of the world is Ukraine. Ukraine which carried out 5 million tons of corn export in 2010/11 season reached to 20 million tons of corn export amount in 2013/14 season. However, the country’s export activities dropped to 19.6 million tons in 2014/15 season. Forecasts show that the decrease will continue in 2015/16 too and the country will export around 15.5 million tons of corn. Argentina comes fourth after Ukraine in world corn export. The corn export of Argentina which is 15 million tons in 2010/11 season increased to 16.5 million tons in 2011/12 season. In 2012/13 season, Argentina started to increase its corn export to 22.7 million tons. However, a decrease was obtained in 2013/14 season and 12.8 million tons of corn export was realized. Corn export of the country which has reached 18.4 million tons with an increase of 4 million tons in 2014/15 season is expected to remain at 17.5 million tons in 2015/16. In 2014/15 season data; EU with 4 million tons, Russia with 3.2 million tons, Paraguay with 3 million tons and Serbia with 2.9 million tons follow Argentina. The largest share in corn import belongs to Asian countries. According to the data of 2014/15 season; Japan is the leader in world corn import. Total corn import of Japan is 14.6 million tons in 2014/15 season, according to the data of USDA. The forecasted import amount of Japan for 2015/16 season is 14.7 million tons. Regarding corn import, Mexico with 11.2 million tons, South Korea with 10.1 million tons, EU with 8.7 million tons, Egypt with 7.8 million tons, Iran with 6.2 million tons and China with 5.5 million tons follow Japan. CORN PRODUCTION IN TURKEY When the data of Turkish statistical institution (TUIK) viewed, it can be said that corn production amount changing between 2 and 3 million tons was realized in Turkey in the years of 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004. The production amount rose to 4.2 million tons in 2008 and realized between 4 and 5 million tons until 2013 then reached to 5.9 million tons 2013. Corn production of Turkey remained at 5.9 million tons in 2014 too. 33 percent of the corn production of Turkey is realized in Marmara region, 31 percent of it in Aegean region, 13 percent of it in The Black Sea region and 10 percent of it is realized in Inner Anatolia. Along with the corn production, yield has also showed a gradual increase in Turkey for the last ten years. Yields which was 400 kilogram per decare in 2001 rose to 711 kilogram in 2006 and 739 kilogram in 2012. For the year 2013, yield in corn is 894 kilogram/hectare. With these yield rates, Turkey is above the world average. IMPORT AND EXPORT OF CORN IN TURKEY Corn production in Turkey nearly meets the consumption. Along with this, from time to time import activities are carried out too. According to the data of TUIK; a significant amount of decrease was realized in Turkey’s corn import between the years of 2009 and 2011. The regulations implemented in 2009 are thought to be effective on this decrease in imports. In consequence of these regulations, important restrictions were implemented on genetically modified food products. Corn is the leading one among these products. However, the effect of regulations continued until 2012. In 2012, imports activity started again and reached to 1.5 million tons in 2013. It is forecasted that corn import activities would realize again in similar amounts in 2014. Import data for 2015 shows 1.4 million tons again. Export activities are significantly limited in comparison to import activities. According to the data of TUIK, the corn exports of Turkey that was 127 thousand tons in 2005 reached to 325 thousand tons which is the highest amount of the last 10 years. Export activities that show a floating level by years remained at 210 thousand tons in 2013.
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