According to CoBank’s latest analysis, trade policy uncertainty — especially with China — has driven new-crop U.S. grain and oilseed export sales to multi-decade lows, exposing exporters to heightened market risk ahead of the 2025/26 season.

A new research brief from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, released on May 22 and authored by Tanner Ehmke and Emmie Noyes, reveals that ongoing trade policy uncertainty is seriously hampering forward sales of U.S. grains and oilseeds. With the 2025/26 marketing year approaching, new-crop export bookings are lagging far behind historical averages—particularly for soybeans and corn—due to tariff disruptions and the absence of firm trade agreements with key partners like China.

On April 2, President Trump announced a sweeping package of “reciprocal” tariffs targeting imports from nearly all countries, with the exception of products falling under the U.S.-Canada-Mexico Trade Agreement. These tariffs were subsequently paused for 90 days and replaced with a temporary flat 10% tariff on all countries—except China. Tariffs on Chinese goods currently stand at 30%, up from 145% at their peak during the most recent escalation.

China, in turn, has imposed retaliatory tariffs of 15% on U.S. corn and wheat and 10% on soybeans and sorghum. In response to these developments, China ramped up soybean imports from Brazil, suspended shipments from three U.S. companies, and signed letters of intent with Argentine exporters to purchase soybeans, corn, and vegetable oil.

According to CoBank, this pause is only temporary, and it remains unclear what policy direction will follow after July 9, when the 90-day suspension ends. So far, only the United Kingdom has finalized a new trade agreement with the U.S., while the administration has indicated that additional tariff changes may be announced due to limited capacity to negotiate deals country by country.

NEW-CROP SALES COLLAPSE AMID UNCERTAINTY

The effects of this uncertainty are most visible in new-crop bookings for the 2025/26 marketing year. Typically, U.S. grain elevators and merchandisers secure sales months in advance. This year, most sales are confined to the spot market, and forward contracts for new-crop soybeans and corn are significantly below historical norms.

• New-crop soybean export sales totaled 518,100 metric tons (MT) as of May 1—88.2% below their five-year average and the lowest volume recorded on that date since 2001.
• Corn sales stood at 2.2 million MT—26.9% below the five-year average.
• Wheat sales, at 2.6 million MT, are slightly ahead of the five-year average.

China’s absence from the U.S. export books is particularly notable. By early May in previous years, China had typically booked over 2 million MT of soybeans, 1.6 million MT of corn, and smaller volumes of wheat.

MAJOR IMPORTERS ALSO LAGGING

Other key trade partners, including Japan and Mexico, are also behind their usual pace. Mexico’s forward bookings of U.S. soybeans are significantly lower than expected for this time of year. Corn sales to Japan and Latin American buyers are similarly weak, while wheat exports to major markets such as the Philippines and South Korea are trailing historical levels.

Strong old-crop sales and robust domestic demand are temporarily offsetting the sluggish pace of new-crop sales. Total U.S. export commitments (shipments plus outstanding sales) for the 2024/25 marketing year are currently:

• Corn: Up 27% year-over-year (YoY)
• Soybeans: Up 13% YoY
• Wheat: Up 14% YoY

Processor margins for soybean crushers and ethanol plants remain positive, and feed demand from livestock and poultry producers is steady—supporting a firm basis for old-crop commodities. However, CoBank warns that new-crop basis could weaken significantly if forward sales do not recover—especially for soybeans in the Northern Plains and Northern Midwest, where producers are highly dependent on export markets, particularly China.

U.S. elevators and grain handlers may gain some relief from falling rail freight rates, which could enable more competitive eastbound movements of grain. A weakening U.S. dollar might also stimulate demand in smaller non-Chinese export markets. Additionally, persistent drought in northeastern China could eventually lead to increased Chinese imports of U.S. grain and oilseeds—though this remains speculative for now.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE DOMINANT THEME

The report concludes that tariff uncertainty—especially with China—has severely depressed new-crop grain and oilseed sales. While trade negotiations are ongoing, the lack of clarity will likely continue to discourage long-term commitments from overseas buyers. If the U.S. reinstates tariffs in July on countries without trade agreements, further retaliatory measures could follow, placing U.S. ag exports at even greater risk.

The biggest danger is that export-dependent grain merchandisers and elevators may be forced to enter the new marketing year with far more exposure to local demand—a resource that may be scarce in certain regions. If new-crop bookings fail to pick up, a sharp widening of basis bids is likely, particularly in areas with limited domestic consumption.

However, those elevators and traders serving ethanol plants, crushers, mills, and animal feedlots may be insulated from these effects—underscoring the increasing divergence in regional market dynamics across the U.S.