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Turkey reportedly set to partially lift wheat import ban

11 October 20243 min reading

Turkey’s wheat import ban, in effect since June 21, will be partially lifted after October 15. According to Bloomberg, the Turkish government plans to reintroduce wheat imports under a quota system, allowing Turkish millers to import 15 tons of wheat for every 85 tons they purchase from the Turkish Grain Board (TMO).

The Turkish Grain Board originally imposed this ban to shield local producers from price declines during the harvest season, with the restriction set to expire on October 15. Just days before the end date, Turkey is reportedly planning to ease the ban by implementing a partial import system. According to Bloomberg, some limitations on wheat imports will remain, but the new quota-based system will allow millers limited import capacity. A letter from the Turkish Flour Industrialists’ Federation outlines the quota-based import system, permitting Turkish millers to import 15% of the quantity used for exports, with the remaining 85% sourced directly from TMO stocks. TMO will determine the prices for these sales.

Turkey introduced the wheat import ban on June 6, 2024, effective from June 21 to October 15, as a protective measure for local farmers during the harvest season. The ban created bearish pressure on Black Sea wheat markets, impacting global prices as well. This decision has been particularly challenging for Ukraine and Russia, key Black Sea exporters, as Turkey is a primary market for both countries. Wheat prices reacted immediately to the ban, dropping by $10-15 per ton after the announcement.

The Turkish milling industry faced considerable challenges due to the ban, with uncertainties in wheat prices impacting their global market position. Over the ban period, Turkey’s flour exports fell by an average of 40%. For more than a decade, Turkey has led global wheat flour exports, accounting for approximately 30% of the world’s trade, with around 4 million tons in annual exports.

Gözde N. Karagöz, a commodity broker at Atria Brokers, commented on the possible effects of the partial lifting of the ban: “Market participants remain uncertain whether this measure will significantly ease the burden on millers. The new system, expected to be in place until year-end, has left traders cautious. The limited import allowance and reliance on TMO’s stocks raise concerns about long-term supply sustainability, and opinions are divided on whether this will stabilize prices or add pressure on millers. Turkish wheat ending stocks for the 2024/25 season may reach a three-year low, as noted in the September WASDE report.”

Turkey is estimated to reduce wheat imports to 9.5 million tons for the 2023/24 season, down from 12.1 million tons in 2022/23, according to the USDA. This reduction is attributed to Turkey’s increased wheat production, which reached 20 million tons in the 2023/24 season, up from 17.3 million tons the previous year. Turkey concluded the 2024/25 season with an estimated wheat harvest of around 20 million tons.  

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