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COCERAL lowers 2024 EU grain crop forecast amid challenging weather conditions

14 October 20243 min reading

COCERAL, the European association of trade in cereals, oilseeds, pulses, animal feed, olive oil, oils and fats, and agrosupply, has released its fourth forecast for the 2024 grain crop, projecting a significant reduction in total production for the EU-27+UK. The total grain output is now expected to reach 280.3 million tonnes, a notable decrease from the previous estimate of 296 million tonnes in June and down from the 294.2 million tonnes harvested in 2023.

The reduction in forecasted production is largely attributed to unfavorable weather conditions during both the spring and summer. Western Europe, particularly France and Germany, experienced substantial rainfall and a lack of sunshine during the spring, which severely impacted winter crop yields. Compounding these issues were lower plantings caused by excessively wet conditions in the fall of 2023. Furthermore, southeastern Europe saw hot and dry weather during pollination, negatively affecting the region’s spring crop yields.

Excluding durum wheat, the 2024 wheat output is now forecast at 126 million tonnes, lower than the June forecast of 134.5 million tonnes and the 140.3 million tonnes harvested in 2023. This decline highlights the challenges faced by wheat farmers, particularly in key producing regions like France and Germany. Despite being adjusted downward to 57.6 million tonnes from 59.9 million tonnes in the June forecast, barley production in 2024 remains slightly higher than the 54.8 million tonnes harvested last year.

Corn has been also affected, with the latest estimate for 2024 standing at 60.3 million tonnes, down from 64.8 million tonnes in June and also lower than the 64.6 million tonnes harvested in 2023. Rapeseed, another crucial crop for the region, is now forecast at 18.1 million tonnes, down from 19.4 million tonnes in the previous estimate and notably below the 21.3 million tonnes harvested in 2023. 

EU DEFORESTATION REGULATION UNCERTAINTY PRESSURES GRAIN INDUSTRY

In addition to lowering its crop forecast, COCERAL has expressed concerns about the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which is set to take effect in 100 days. COCERAL, along with FEDIOL, representing the EU vegetable oil and protein meal industry, have criticized the European Commission and Member States for not providing clear guidelines on how to comply with the regulation. ““A hundred days before the entry into application of the Regulation, actors in our supply chains have yet to receive clear guidance on how to implement the regulation on many aspects. Targeted commodities have been harvested, processed and will soon be shipped, but we have no certainty about the requirements to prove compliance,” stated COCERAL. This uncertainty has raised alarms across the agrifood industry, as market players struggle to prepare for the regulation without practical implementation solutions. According to COCERAL, “The current uncertainty and lack of practical implementation solutions negatively impacts market players and their preparations and could severely affect the availability of targeted commodities and derived products on the EU market, risking EU food security and competitiveness of the agrifood sectors.”

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