At this year’s Global Grain Geneva 2025, the session titled “The Millers’ View: Flour Market Challenges and Outlook” brought together two respected voices of the global milling industry: Scott Wellcome, Director of Grain Risk Management at GoodMills Group, and Fabien Varagnac, an independent milling consultant with extensive field experience around the world. The session was moderated by Namık Kemal Parlak, Editor-in-Chief of Miller Magazine. Against a backdrop of steady harvests and seemingly comfortable global wheat stocks, the discussion revealed an industry that despite the outward calm is undergoing profound structural changes: volatile global trade flows, increasingly complex procurement dynamics, shifting consumer preferences, and the rapid rise of digital and data-driven milling technologies. 

MARKET CALM OR HIDDEN VOLATILITY?

While global wheat prices appear more stable than during the turbulence of 2022–23, Scott Wellcome cautioned that the structural drivers of volatility remain firmly in place. “If you compare today’s environment with 2022–23, it certainly feels calmer. But structurally, volatility hasn’t gone anywhere. Climate risks, geopolitics, government intervention, and now trade tariffs all continue to influence the market,” he said. “If anything, the last five years from COVID onward have made us more resilient. We have become better at managing shocks and more sophisticated in using risk-management tools.” 

Wellcome stressed that GoodMills maintains the same risk controls Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis, stress testing and hedging discipline regardless of market sentiment. The real danger, he warned, is relaxing internal processes just because prices look calm. “The key is discipline. Even when prices look calm, we never relax our processes,” he explained. “The moment you stop doing your VAR analysis or stress tests because ‘nothing is happening,’ that’s when trouble appears. 

He also reminded the audience that the current low-price environment is putting pressure on farmers, influencing planting decisions and future supply—another reason why millers cannot afford complacency. 

PROCUREMENT GETS MORE STRATEGIC

Fabien Varagnac highlighted a trend increasingly visible across global milling: a shift from “buying on price” to “buying on performance.”  “Even when origins are similarly priced, deeper analysis shows meaningful differences. Quality parameters milling yield, baking performance can vary significantly,” he said. “A good example this year: between French wheat and Baltic wheat, the difference in economical milling yield can be as high as 2%. At the same delivered price, that can translate into $5–7 per ton of flour difference in cost.” 

Millers, Varagnac noted, are becoming much more data-driven in their procurement choices: “Millers today are much more data-driven. They track historical performance, analyze yield variations, and anticipate quality changes. Traders often focus only on protein and price, but for millers, yield and functionality are crucial. This sophistication is essential for protecting margins.” 

Scott Wellcome echoed this shift, explaining that GoodMills collaborates more closely with farmers and seed companies to secure varieties that consistently deliver the gluten strength, extensibility and energy content required by different customers. 

AFRICA’S RISING ROLE IN GLOBAL WHEAT TRADE

The panel also shed light on one of the most transformative developments in global grain markets: the rapid growth of wheat consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa. “Sub-Saharan Africa has seen over 30% growth in wheat consumption in the last decade more than 10 million tons of additional demand. Local production hasn’t grown enough, so imports have risen by 8–8.5 million tons, now totaling around 30 million tons per year similar to North Africa,” Varagnac noted. 

Africa’s geographical position gives it unusual flexibility in sourcing: “Africa sits at the crossroads of global trade routes. Freight differences between Europe, Black Sea, North America, Argentina, and Australia are relatively small. So African buyers can switch origins quickly,” he said. This flexibility, he added, has already reshaped trade flows:

•  Russia remains a dominant supplier,
•  Baltic origins have grown sharply,
•  France and Germany have lost market share and this trend is likely to continue. 

EUROPEAN FLOUR DEMAND: STABLE VOLUME, SHIFTING COMPOSITION

Within Europe, overall flour demand remains broadly stable. However, both panelists stressed that the composition of demand is changing structurally. “Overall flour demand is stable, but the composition is changing. We see movement away from standard white flour toward wholegrain, functional flours, artisan flours, ancient grains, and organic products,” Wellcome said. GoodMills is still largely oriented toward industrial white-flour demand, but the company is preparing for a possible shift in its asset base: “For now, GoodMills is still structurally oriented toward industrial white-flour demand. But if these niche segments grow significantly, we may need to convert some plants into specialty mills,” he explained. “We are customer-driven so we will adapt when the market tells us to.” 

GLOBAL MILLING TRENDS

Varagnac outlined three major global transformations reshaping the milling industry: 

• Consolidation – Mills are becoming larger, more modern and more efficient, with consolidation accelerating in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
• Vertical Integration – Millers are increasingly expanding downstream into baking, biscuit production and pasta manufacturing, tightening value-chain control and margins.
• Product Diversification – Even emerging markets, traditionally focused on all-purpose flour, are moving toward premium, pastry and specialty flours.

DIGITAL MILLING AND AI

The panel concluded with perhaps the most forward-looking theme: digitalization and artificial intelligence. Scott Wellcome underlined the growing role of AI and data in the grains economy: “AI models claiming to predict grain prices already exist. The bigger opportunity is digitalization of data management and process optimization,” he said. “Digital twins, automated process adjustments, and reducing human variability can significantly increase efficiency.” 

Fabien Varagnac focused on how these tools are already beginning to transform operations inside the mill: “Digital milling solutions are still emerging, but progress is clear. Continuous real-time adjustments rather than fixed settings allow mills to adapt instantly to changes in wheat quality, temperature, and humidity,” he explained. “This improves: quality stability, energy efficiency, extraction yield, operational consistency. Less human intervention means fewer inconsistencies between shifts. We’re not at ‘dark factory’ level yet, but the direction is clear.”