India rice exports forecast at record amid bumper crop

01 April 20232 min reading

India continues to be the leading rice exporter with low prices and large supplies. For 2022/23, India is expected to export a record 22.5 million tons of rice.

India accounts for a quarter of global rice production and is the second largest producer after China. India rice production for MY 2022/23 (October 2022 - September 2023) is estimated at 132 million tons, up 7 million from the USDA’s February estimate. The change in March is due to larger-than-anticipated area harvested and yield based primarily on an updated government production estimate. For the seventh consecutive year, the total production is projected to be a record high.

India exports are forecast to continue to climb despite trade restrictions implemented at the end of the previous marketing year. On September 9, 2022, the Government of India banned exports of 100 percent broken rice and applied 20 percent tariffs on other types of rice except basmati and parboiled. Within the first 4 months of 2022/23, broken rice exports have plummeted. However, exports of milled rice have offset those losses. Since the ban, top broken rice importer China has imported both less Indian rice and less broken rice in general. Both Senegal and Vietnam have continued to import from India but have shifted from importing broken rice to importing non-basmati white rice. In addition, India has shipped more milled rice to price-sensitive markets in the Middle East and Africa.

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