In the highly anticipated first World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for 2023, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised upwards the global wheat production, exports, consumption and stocks for the 2022/23 season. USDA projected the world wheat production at 781.3 million tons, 720 thousand tons higher than the previous report. The global wheat trade forecast also increased to 211.6 million tons.

The 2022/23 global outlook is for increased supplies, exports, consumption, and stocks. World supplies are raised 1.3 million tons to 1,058.1 million on production increases in Ukraine and the EU. World consumption for 2022/23 is raised by 0.2 million tons to 789.7 million as higher feed and residual use for the United States more than offsets a decline for Ukraine.

Projected 2022/23 global trade is increased 0.8 million tons to 211.6 million as increases for the EU and Ukraine more than offset a decline for India. EU and Ukraine exports are raised 0.5 million tons each to 36.5 and 13.0 million respectively on higher exportable supplies. USDA increased its EU wheat production forecast up from 134.3 million tons to 134.7 million tons. Ukraine wheat production is estimated at 21.0 million metric tons, up 2 percent from last month, but down 36 percent from last year.

Projected 2022/23 global ending stocks are raised 1.1 million tons to 268.4 million, with increases for the EU, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and India more than offsetting declines in Saudi Arabia and Iran.

RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION UNCHANGED

 Another remarkable point in the USDA report was the forecast Russian wheat production. Russia wheat production for 2022/23 season is estimated at 91.0 million metric tons (mmt), unchanged from last month, but up 21 percent from last year. The estimate includes 68.0 mmt of winter wheat and 23.0 mmt of spring wheat. Russia’s statistical agency, Rosstat, published its preliminary final numbers for 2022 on December 28, 2022. Rosstat forecasts Russia’s wheat at 101.9 mmt.