Global wheat production in 2023/24 is tentatively projected to retreat from the prior year’s record level amid a pullback in harvested area and yields, including a drop in the eight major exporters, the International Grains Council (IGC) said.  The IGC saw global wheat production falling to 787 million tons from 801 million tons in the prior season.

In its March Grain Market Report (GMR), IGC revised its forecast for global grain production for the 2022/23 season by 2 million tons and predicted it as 2.250 billion tons. “At 2,250m t, world 2022/23 total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production is seen 2% lower year on year, dropping for the first time since 2017/18, primarily because of a smaller maize crop. Consumption is also forecast to contract, mainly on reduced feed use but, with a relatively steeper fall in supply, ending stocks will shrink by 2%, to an eight-season low. Amid smaller coarse grain shipments, total trade is placed 4% down year on year,” the inter-governmental body said.

The March report includes the Council's first full set of projections for the 2023/24 season. The Council put global grain production at 2.283 billion tons for the 2023/24 season. Grains consumption was expected to climb to 2.288 billion from 2.261 billion, leading to a small decline in carryover stocks to 580 million tons from 586 million tons. “World supply is forecast to edge higher year on year but, with an assumed uplift in demand, carryover inventories are forecast to tighten again. After two consecutive declines, total trade could expand slightly in the coming season.”

Global wheat production in 2023/24 is tentatively projected to retreat from the prior year’s record level amid a pullback in harvested area and yields, including a drop in the eight major exporters, the IGC said.  The Council saw global wheat production falling to 787 million tons from 801 million tons in the prior season.

IGC sees that the world wheat trade will be 195 million tons with a decrease of 4 million tons. “Tighter exportable supplies in the key exporters, coupled with potentially stiffer competition from feed alternatives, could contain world wheat trade in 2023/24, with markedly smaller imports predicted by Europe, Pacific Asia and the CIS,” the IGC said.