Alexander Karavaytsev
Senior Economist
International Grains Council (IGC)
With updated trade statistics falling short of expectations, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecast for global wheat flour trade in 2024/25 (Jul/Jun) is lowered by 0.6m t from the previous update (October 2024, Grain Market Report No. 559), to a three-year low of 15.3 million tonnes (grain equivalent). The figure is 10% below the prior year’s six-year high, with the annual retreat primarily linked to reduced import needs in Iraq and moderating flour purchases by buyers in sub-Saharan Africa.
Ample and competitively priced supplies from Turkey saw imports by sub-Saharan Africa climb to a seven-year high of 3.1 million tonnes (mt) in 2023/24. The increase was led by Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan, with the latter also boosting purchases from Egypt amid challenging conditions in the domestic milling industry. However, with this season’s curtailed export potential in Turkey, deliveries to sub-Saharan Africa are set to fall back to more normal levels, forecast at 2.4m t, down by 0.2m from the October update but still similar to the prior five-year average. Amid reduced flour imports, some buyers in that region are seen boosting purchases of wheat, which is highlighted by the fact that the portion of wheat flour in reported all-wheat deliveries to sub-Saharan Africa to date (data mainly available through December 2024-January 2025) stood at around 6%, down from 12% for the whole 2023/24 season.
Trends in wheat flour trade during 2024/25 have also been shaped by reduced import requirements in Iraq, where the government has recently authorised exports of up to 2.0m t of wheat amid ample local availabilities. With overseas purchases also contained by expanding local processing industry and this season’s less competitive offers from Turkey, the main supplier, flour deliveries to Iraq are forecast to fall to a 14-year low of 1.1m t, 1.0m lower y/y and down by 0.2m from the last update.
Wheat flour arrivals to Afghanistan, the world’s leading importer of the product, are forecast at 3.1m t, little changed y/y, but 0.3m lower than in the October report, reflecting slower than anticipated flows from Kazakhstan. Despite reports of heavy local wheat supplies and efforts to boost exports, flour dispatches from Kazakhstan to Afghanistan, typically the main destination, during the first six months of the 2024/25 (Jul/Jun) marketing year were reported to be fractionally lower y/y, at around 0.9m t.
Other notable adjustments from the last update include a cut for Venezuela, to 0.2m t (0.3m), as reported deliveries from Turkey fell short of expectations. With some substitution for grain wheat envisaged, the share of flour in Venezuela’s all-wheat imports is forecast to fall to 17% in 2024/25, down from the more normal level of around one-third.
On the export side, with earlier import restrictions limiting access to competitively priced wheat supplies from the Black Sea region, flour dispatches by Turkey are forecast to fall by one-third from the prior year’s peak, to 3.8m t, potentially a decade-low. With reported deliveries during Jul-Dec 2024 totalling 1.7m t (-42% y/y), the forecast is 0.7m lower than in October. While the recent removal of import limitations for wheat could aid future deliveries, the upside may be limited by waning demand from Iraq and increased presence of Egyptian suppliers in some African markets.
Amid larger grain availabilities, flour exports by Kazakhstan are set to edge higher y/y in 2024/25, seen at a seven-year high of 3.0m t (2.7m). However, much hinges on future demand from Afghanistan, with the forecast trimmed by 0.2m t from the October report.
In contrast, export projections for Egypt and Russia are raised from before, pegged at 1.1m t (0.9m) and 1.2m (1.3m), respectively. With fluctuations in the country’s floating wheat export taxes seen favouring exports of wheat products at times, flour dispatches by Russia have surged in recent years, with expanding deliveries to some destinations, including Afghanistan, Iraq and China.
The initial outlook for 2025/26 is for a moderate rebound in global trade, amid some recovery in purchases by sub-Saharan Africa, coupled with modest annual increases in some other regions, including parts of Asia. However, with local grain supplies expected to remain at a relatively high level, imports by Iraq are likely to stay well below earlier peaks.
Exports by Turkey are expected to rebound following the removal of wheat import restrictions, but will likely fall short of historical highs amid reduced buying by Iraq and potentially increased competition from Egypt in some markets.
