SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has revised its 2025 Russian wheat production forecast upward by 1.2 million metric tons (MMT) to 81.0 MMT, though it remains below the 2024 harvest of 82.6 MMT.

The first estimate for total grain production in 2025 stands at 127.6 MMT, compared to 125.9 MMT last year. Barley production is projected at 17.4 MMT (vs. 16.7 MMT in 2024), and corn at 14.6 MMT (vs. 14.0 MMT), supported by improved yield expectations following last year’s adverse weather.

The upward revision to the wheat forecast is driven by improved weather conditions in recent weeks. However, SovEcon notes that these improvements may not be sufficient to fully offset the damage sustained by winter wheat during late 2024 and early 2025. The winter wheat forecast has been raised to 53.4 MMT, up by 1.2 MMT, while the spring wheat estimate remains unchanged at 27.5 MMT.

Grain and pulse production is expected to increase overall, buoyed by better outlooks for barley, corn, and other crops, which offset the slight year-on-year decline in wheat output.

At the same time, the total planted area under grains is projected to decline for a second consecutive year, down to 45.7 million hectares from 46.1 million hectares in 2024. The reduction is attributed to declining profitability, rising export taxes, and a shift toward more profitable oilseed crops.

Andrey Sizov, CEO of SovEcon, commented: “There was a lot of optimism among forecasters after the rains in recent weeks in Russia. It did improve the situation in some regions but could not fully offset the problems winter wheat faced during earlier months. Moisture reserves remain below previous years in many key regions, including Rostov, Russia’s top wheat-growing area. Our regular farmers' survey shows persistent pessimism among many producers in the South and southern Black Earth regions.”