World total grains production
in 2020/21 is forecast to increase by 40m t y/y, to an all-time high of 2,226m,
according to the recent International Grains Council supply and demand report.
The International Grains Council (IGC) presented its latest supply and demand forecasts and market developments for grains, rice, oilseeds and pulses in 2021/22 at its 54th Council Session on 21 January 2022. Despite difficult cropping weather in some regions, total grains production was forecast to reach an all-time high in 2021/22, up 71m t y/y, at 2,286m, including records for maize and wheat. Global consumption was also seen at a new peak, including gains in feed, food and industrial use, with stocks forecast to dip for a fifth consecutive year. Despite an uptick in wheat and sorghum shipments, a drop in maize, barley and oats trade was likely to limit total volumes to 423m t (-1% y/y).
NEW PEAK IN WHEAT
World wheat trade is set to expand to a fresh peak in 21/22, led by larger purchases by Near East Asia. Among key exporters, increased dispatches by Argentina, Australia, the EU and Ukraine are set to more than offset declines in shipments from Canada, the US and Russia.
The Council's initial projections for 2022/23 wheat supply and demand pointed to a fourth successive increase in production, to a new peak. With consumption also seen at a fresh high, stocks were predicted little changed y/y, including below-average exporters’ inventories. World trade was forecast to retreat from the current season's record.
With a bigger US harvest compensating for smaller southern hemisphere crops, 2021/22 world soybean production was seen a fraction higher y/y, at 368m t. Amid further gains in Asia and the three majors, global uptake was predicted at a fresh peak, with increased demand partly linked to tight supplies of alternatives. Stocks were predicted to fall by 6% y/y, including a reduction in exporters' reserves. Underpinned by Asian demand, trade was forecast to expand by 4% y/y.
Global rice output in 2021/22 was forecast at 511m t, marginally higher y/y and a new peak on bigger harvests in Asian producers. Tied to population-driven gains in food use, consumption was predicted at a peak, while inventories were seen at a high, including accumulation in key exporters. After the prior year’s solid y/y rise to a record, trade was expected to edge lower in 2022.
World pulses trade was seen contracting for a second successive year in 2022 (Jan/Dec), by 2%, to 16m t, on smaller shipments of dry peas and chickpeas – principally to destinations in Asia. Despite a 5% y/y fall in dispatches, Canada would remain by far the biggest supplier of pulses to the global market.