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FAO forecasts record world grain trade

08 February 20222 min reading

FAO’s latest forecast for world trade in cereals in 2021/22 stands at 481 million tonnes, up 0.4 percent from the previous marketing year and a record level.

Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) updated its forecast for world cereal production in 2021, now standing at 2 793 million tonnes, a 0.8 percent increase from the previous year.

Global wheat output in 2021 is expected to be on par with 2020, while the production of coarse grains is projected to be 1.3 percent larger and that of rice to grow by 0.7 percent, according to FAO’s latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, released on 3rd February.

For 2022, global wheat plantings are expected to expand, buoyed by mostly conducive weather conditions in the northern hemisphere, although high input costs could deter a larger expansion. The outlook for maize is robust, with high prices pointing to record plantings in Argentina and Brazil.

Worldwide cereal utilization in 2021/22 is forecast to increase by 1.6 percent year-on-year, pointing to a likely decline in the world cereal stocks-to-use ratio to 28.7 percent, slightly lower than the previous year’s but still a historically comfortable level.

FAO’s latest forecast for world trade in cereals in 2021/22 stands at 481 million tonnes, up 0.4 percent from the previous marketing year and a record level. This reflects expectations of a 2.0 percent increase in global wheat trade and an almost 4.0 percent increase in the volume of globally traded rice, more than offsetting a 1.5 percent contraction anticipated for coarse grains.


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