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SovEcon raises Russian wheat forecast on Central region gains

18 July 20252 min reading

SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has raised its 2025 Russian wheat production forecast to 83.6 million metric tons (MMT), up from 83.0 MMT in June. The latest revision is once again driven by improved crop conditions in the Central region, where the wheat crop is now estimated at 19.8 MMT, up from 18.5 MMT.

The wheat crop forecast for the South was slightly lowered to 31.1 MMT (from 31.5 MMT) due to weaker yield expectations in Rostov and Krasnodar, partially offset by improved prospects in Stavropol.

Russia’s total grain production is now projected at 130.5 MMT, up from 129.5 MMT in June. The barley forecast has been raised to 18.0 MMT (from 17.5 MMT) on improved prospects for spring barley and a slightly larger planted area. The corn crop forecast remains unchanged at 14.3 MMT.

The total wheat area estimate has been reduced to 26.6 million hectares, down from 26.9 million hectares, reflecting updated pre-harvest area estimates.

“The market may have been overly optimistic about the Russian wheat crop earlier this season — and could now be underestimating it,” said Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon. “Southern yields are poor but largely in line with our expectations, while conditions outside the South continue to improve.”

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