Grain producers, traders, and logistics experts at the BBS Grain 2025 Conference discussed the path forward for Black Sea grain trade amid growing market competition, logistical bottlenecks, and persistent geopolitical uncertainties.

Istanbul hosted the BBS Grain 2025: Black Sea and Balkans Grain Forum on June 2, 2025, where over 300 industry leaders, including producers, traders, millers, logistics providers, shipping experts, and policymakers, gathered to discuss the future of the grain and oilseed sectors in the Black Sea, Balkans, and Mediterranean regions.

The forum featured a rich agenda covering the competitive landscape of global grain markets, production and export potential in the Black Sea and Balkans, oilseeds trade outlook, and the critical risks and logistical bottlenecks affecting grain shipping.

Miller Magazine closely followed the event as a media partner. Namık Kemal Parlak, Editor-in-Chief of Miller Magazine, also made a comprehensive presentation on the global wheat markets, providing insights into trade flows, production trends, and the challenges facing the international grain sector.

In the opening session, experts from Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and S&P Global Platts provided sharp insights into the Black Sea grain market. Stoyan Valev, CEO of Grainstore, highlighted Bulgaria’s positive outlook, projecting strong wheat, barley, and rapeseed yields for the 2025/26 season. Bulgaria’s position has been further strengthened by its 2025 Schengen accession and the planned Eurozone adoption in 2026. Additionally, Bulgaria is expanding its sunflower planting area, despite a decrease in corn acreage, and is regaining wheat market share in Italy and Spain.

Adrian Dobrita from RWA Raiffeisen Agro emphasized Romania’s logistical strength. Despite recent droughts, Romania efficiently maintained grain exports, supported by the Port of Constanța and the Danube corridor. Wheat production is expected to rebound to 10.7 million tonnes, and corn production may reach 12 million tonnes in 2025. Romania is also expanding its role as a key logistics hub for Ukrainian grain.

Zsolt Horvath of CML Hungary Kft. reported that Hungary achieved its second-highest wheat yields in over a century in 2024. However, disappointing corn results have led farmers to shift towards more resilient crops like sunflower. Winter wheat acreage is forecast to recover to 945,000 hectares in 2025.

BLACK SEA GRAIN MARKET DYNAMICS 

Vivian Iroanya from S&P Global Platts provided a market-driven analysis of global price trends. She noted that the 2024/25 wheat season was marked by tight origin spreads and elevated Black Sea prices, often making EU wheat cheaper than Russian supplies. Turkey’s temporary wheat import bans and quota restrictions significantly influenced regional pricing. Iroanya announced the launch of Platts’ new Milling Wheat Marker in June 2025, aimed at serving as a transparent pricing benchmark for Black Sea wheat, which now accounts for nearly 38% of global wheat exports.

Iroanya highlighted that U.S. corn remains highly competitive in EU markets, while Black Sea corn mainly flows to Turkey. Looking ahead, pricing will be shaped by EU tariff policies on Ukrainian grain, the competitiveness of U.S. and Latin American exports, and regional planting dynamics.

The session also explored increasing Chinese and Middle Eastern interest in sourcing grain from Serbia, Bulgaria, and Romania. Notably, China’s second-largest corn importer recently opened facilities in Bulgaria, enabling direct trade with Serbian exporters. Additionally, Middle Eastern and Chinese companies are expanding their presence by leasing or purchasing farmland in the Balkans.

STRATEGIES OF MAJOR GRAIN IMPORTERS

The second session focused on the procurement strategies of major grain-importing countries, including Egypt, Turkey, and Tunisia. Amr Siam of Bashayer Feed Establishment explained that Egypt is expected to import 13 million tonnes of wheat in 2025/26, remaining the world’s largest wheat importer. Egypt is working to improve domestic wheat productivity, reduce irrigation water use by 25%, and strengthen its role as a regional wheat flour supplier to Sudan, Yemen, and Somalia.

Ibrahim Demirayak from Prime Trading SA detailed Turkey’s supply and demand outlook, noting that wheat production is estimated at 18.5 million tonnes, with wheat imports expected to range between 8 to 10 million tonnes. Barley production is forecast to decline by 10%, prompting possible imports of up to 2 million tonnes. Corn production is likely to remain stable, but import demand will persist due to quotas and low stock levels. Demirayak emphasized that Turkey’s high financing costs—around 52%—continue to limit stockholding and purchasing decisions.

Mehdi Zerzeri from Les Grands Moulins de Tunis provided insights into Tunisia’s grain market, which is heavily regulated by government monopolies. Tunisia imports most of its wheat, barley, and corn, with local production meeting only a fraction of demand. While wheat and barley imports are largely government-controlled, private sector importers face strict price controls, limited access to financial instruments, and stringent barley quality requirements.

OILSEED MARKET OUTLOOK

The third session focused on oilseed and processed oil markets, with particular attention to sunflower products. Preslav Raykov from Eleen Marine Commodities emphasized that a significant portion of Black Sea oilseed exports continues to support the biofuels sector, but biofuel margins remain under pressure. He noted that Russia’s export strategies will be key: if Russia moderates its pricing and export volumes, market stability may improve; otherwise, aggressive low-priced exports could further disrupt the sector.

Ivan Podluzhnyi from Rusagro warned of a structural sunflower seed deficit in Russia, despite rapid capacity expansions. By 2031, Russia’s crushing capacity will exceed 24 million tonnes, while seed supply is unlikely to keep pace.

Veysel Kaya from Sunseedman projected that global sunflower seed prices could decline to $500-550 per tonne next season, with crude sunflower oil prices expected to ease to $1,000-1,100 per tonne. However, Kaya cautioned that geopolitical tensions—including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East instability, and Red Sea shipping disruptions—will continue to pose significant risks.

FREIGHT MARKETS AND INSURANCE RISKS IN FOCUS

The fourth session addressed growing logistical and insurance challenges in the Black Sea and East Mediterranean regions. Engin Koçak from the Turkish Shipbrokers’ Association noted that despite Turkey’s return to grain imports, freight demand remains weak, with overcapacity and an aging regional fleet limiting freight rate recovery. Freight markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts.

Yavor Velchev from ShipPossible emphasized that marine insurance is becoming increasingly complex in high-risk zones. War risk premiums have surged, and securing insurance for voyages linked to sanctioned regions is becoming more difficult. Velchev warned that inadequate sanction management could lead to costly delays, denied claims, or legal exposure.