Global wheat production is set to reach 800.1 million tonnes in 2025 with only marginal growth, while world stocks are forecast to decline to their lowest level since 2021/22. International trade is expected to partially rebound, supported by a sharp increase in import demand from Asian countries.

The FAO’s Food Outlook, released on 12 June 2025, offers a comprehensive assessment of the global wheat market for the 2025/26 season. While wheat production is set to increase slightly, lower global inventories, shifting trade flows, and evolving demand trends are expected to shape a more complex market landscape in the months ahead.

Global wheat production in 2025 is forecast at 800.1 million tonnes (Mt), reflecting a marginal increase of less than 1.0 percent compared to 2024. This modest gain is primarily attributed to a strong recovery in the European Union, where production is projected to rise by 13.0 percent to 135.3 Mt, mainly due to improved weather conditions and better yields.

India, the world’s third-largest wheat producer, is also set for a record harvest of 115.4 Mt, driven by expanded sowings encouraged by attractive price incentives. In Argentina, favorable weather and stronger domestic prices are expected to lift production by 11.0 percent to 20.5 million tonnes.

The outlook is similarly positive for the United Kingdom, where improved weather could bring production back in line with the five-year average. In Russia, despite early-season weather challenges and reduced sowings, improved recent conditions may still support a slight year-on-year increase.

These gains are expected to offset declines in other major producers. Notable reductions are forecast in Australia (30.5 Mt) due to reduced planting and lower yields, Kazakhstan (15.3 Mt), Iran (13.5 Mt), Pakistan, and Ukraine (19.5). Türkiye’s wheat production is projected to decline by 6.3 percent, from 20.8 Mt in 2024 to 19.5 Mt in 2025—placing it among the key producers facing contraction. In Pakistan, lower rainfall and weaker price signals are expected to cause an 11.0 percent drop from last year’s record harvest. In Iran and much of the Near East, persistent dryness is a key factor behind lower production expectations. 

WHEAT UTILIZATION PROJECTED TO EXPAND

Global wheat utilization is forecast to increase by 1.3 percent in 2025/26, reaching 805.4 Mt. This includes:

• A 2.3 percent rise in feed use (notably in China),
• A 0.7 percent increase in food consumption, maintaining global per capita consumption at 66.6 kg/year,
• A 2.7 percent increase in other uses, including industry and seed, largely driven by growth in the United States.

WHEAT STOCKS TO DROP TO THEIR LOWEST SINCE 2021/22 

Global wheat inventories are expected to decline by 2.2 percent (6.8 Mt) to 310 Mt, the lowest level since 2021/22. The most significant drawdown is anticipated in Russia (nearly 24 percent), with further reductions in Argentina, Australia, the EU, Iran, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, and Ukraine.

The global wheat stock-to-use ratio is projected to fall to 38.1 percent, down from 39.3 percent in 2024/25 and below the recent five-year average of 38.7 percent—though still considered a comfortable level.

Of particular importance to market availability, the major exporters’ stocks-to-disappearance ratio is forecast to decrease sharply—from 20.4 percent in 2024/25 to 17.0 percent—due to tightening inventories in Russia, the EU, and Argentina.

INTERNATIONAL PRICES REMAIN WEAK BUT MAY FIND SUPPORT

International wheat prices remained broadly stable throughout the 2024/25 season, though they experienced fluctuations driven by mixed market signals. While reduced import demand weighed on sentiment, concerns over tightening supply—particularly in Russia—and adverse weather in key producing countries provided occasional upward pressure.

In May 2025, international wheat prices stood 10.5 percent below May 2024 levels and 27.3 percent below their five-year average. Futures markets reflect this bearish tone: CBOT soft red winter wheat futures averaged USD 201/tonne, 20.1 percent lower than a year earlier.

For the 2025/26 season, FAO anticipates higher global wheat utilization, stronger import demand, and declining stocks—all factors that could support prices. However, ongoing trade policy uncertainties continue to dampen sentiment.

WHEAT TRADE TO REBOUND, LED BY ASIAN DEMAND

Following a sharp 7.8 percent decline in 2024/25, global wheat trade is projected to grow by 3.8 percent in 2025/26, reaching 200.6 Mt. This remains below the record 209.6 million tonnes traded in 2023/24.

The expected rebound is largely due to a 16.4 percent increase in import demand from Asia, particularly in China (higher feed use) and Türkiye (smaller domestic harvest). Other countries set to raise imports include Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria.

In contrast, Europe is expected to cut imports by 35.2 percent, led by the EU, which is projected to halve its purchases due to higher domestic output. The UK is also forecast to reduce imports for similar reasons.

Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean are likewise expected to lower their wheat imports. In Africa, reductions are centered in Angola and Egypt, while in Latin America, Brazil is set to reduce purchases, tying with Mexico as the region’s top importer.

On the export side, Russia and the EU are expected to lead the increase in global sales. Russia will likely maintain its top position, while improved EU harvests support increased exports. Argentina is also expected to boost exports on the back of a larger crop. Conversely, exports from Australia, Canada, and Ukraine may decline slightly, while those from Kazakhstan and the United States are expected to remain steady.