Speaking at Bühler Networking Days 2025, Vito Martielli, Senior Analyst for Grains & Oilseeds at Rabobank, emphasized that Africa’s rapidly increasing grain demand is set to reshape global supply chains. Martielli highlighted the continent’s soaring wheat imports and underlined the urgent need for investment in storage, milling, and processing infrastructure across Sub-Saharan Africa.
At Bühler Networking Days 2025, Vito Martielli, Senior Analyst for Grains & Oilseeds for Rabobank at the Rabo Research Food & Agribusiness department, delivered a comprehensive presentation on the global grain trade, key production trends, and future investment opportunities in the agri-food supply chain.
Martielli began by emphasizing the major demographic shifts that will shape food demand in the coming decades. While Asia remains home to the largest population, projections suggest a significant slowdown, with the continent’s population expected to peak at 4.6 billion by 2100. In contrast, Africa is set to become the center of population growth, expected to reach 4 billion by the end of the century. “Africa is not only a growing consumer market but will become increasingly central to global trade flows,” Martielli noted, calling attention to the growing demand for grain across the continent.
Martielli underscored the urgent environmental constraints facing agriculture. One-third of the world’s arable land is already degraded, and every five seconds, the world loses a soccer field’s worth of fertile soil. Agriculture also accounts for 70% of global freshwater use and 20% of greenhouse gas emissions. “These environmental realities, combined with demographic trends, will continue to drive structural changes in the grain and oilseed sectors,” he warned.
SHIFTING GRAIN TRADE ROUTES: THE RISE OF EMERGING MARKETS
Martielli highlighted a significant transformation in global grain trade over the past two decades. Traditional suppliers like the United States have lost dominance in key markets such as Egypt and China. Russia has emerged as the world’s leading wheat exporter, while Brazil has become China’s top soybean supplier. “These emerging markets are now both origin and destination hubs,” Martielli explained. “Russia is now the number one wheat supplier to Egypt and Turkey, while Brazil leads soybean exports to China.”
Martielli also drew attention to Brazil’s growing logistical challenges. The country’s record soybean and corn harvests have outpaced the capacity of its ports and storage infrastructure.“Brazil urgently needs a second wave of investment in storage, transportation, and port capacity,” he stressed. “This presents opportunities for grain handling, storage, and logistics solution providers.”
AFRICA’S GROWING APPETITE FOR WHEAT
Martielli emphasized the growing importance of Africa in global grain trade. Over the past 50 years, Africa’s share of global wheat imports has soared from 12% to one-third. The continent is also becoming a major destination for rice and vegetable oil shipments. “In the next decade, we expect increasing demand for storage, milling, and grain processing infrastructure across Sub-Saharan Africa,” he said, identifying this as a key growth market for the industry.
UKRAINE’S SHIFTING EXPORT ROUTES
In response to the ongoing conflict, Ukraine has been actively developing alternative export corridors, including overland routes through Romania, Hungary, and Serbia. “These countries not only provide alternative channels but also have the potential to expand their own grain production and export capacity in the years ahead,” Martielli noted.
EUROPE’S PROTEIN TRANSITION
Turning to Europe, Martielli highlighted the region’s growing investment in oilseeds and pulses to meet rising demand for plant-based proteins. European regulations are also reshaping the soybean supply chain, pushing the industry towards more traceable and sustainable sourcing. “The demand for plant proteins is rising not only for alternative products but also for traditional consumption,” he explained, adding that pulses are gaining strategic importance both from sustainability and nutritional perspectives.
Martielli also examined the palm oil sector, noting that while production has plateaued, government-mandated blending programs in Southeast Asia are driving increased demand. This supply-demand imbalance is putting upward pressure on palm oil and vegetable oil prices globally.
THE GROWING POTENTIAL OF PULSES
Finally, Martielli pointed to the growing relevance of pulses in both developed and emerging markets. Pulses offer sustainability benefits, support soil health, and provide affordable protein sources. “Pulses are still a niche but have significant potential for growth, especially if more transparency and investment are directed toward this segment,” he concluded.