At AgroFoodSummit 2025 in Mersin, Areté’s Filippo Bertuzzi warned that while global durum supplies are recovering and prices are easing, a potential US tariff shock on Italian pasta could become the next disruptive force for the market.

Filippo Bertuzzi

Global durum wheat fundamentals look far less tense than in recent seasons. Speaking at AgroFoodSummit 2025 in Mersin, Türkiye, Filippo Bertuzzi, Senior Market Analyst at Italian consultancy Areté, said world production in the 2025/26 marketing year is up by around 1–1.2 million tonnes compared with last season, marking a second consecutive year of stock rebuilding.

The recovery is driven by better harvests in both key demand and supply regions. Italy – the EU’s largest durum importer and the backbone of its pasta industry – harvested a much larger crop this year, with output rising by roughly 15%, or more than 1.1 million tonnes, year-on-year. North Africa has also enjoyed an improved season after three years of intense drought, even if production remains slightly below its long-term average.

On the supply side, Canada and the United States form what Bertuzzi described as a single “export box” of exceptional size. Combined durum production there is close to 9 million tonnes, a level he characterised as a record for the past two decades.

Türkiye, by contrast, has faced a more difficult season. Dry weather pulled production down from last year’s highs, although volumes remain on the upper side of historical ranges. Other exporters in the wider Black Sea and CIS region show a similar pattern: slightly below last year’s peaks but still at comfortable levels. Overall, Bertuzzi concluded, “this is a pretty comfortable production picture worldwide” for durum.

MEXICO BECOMES A NET IMPORTER

If there is one structural change on the supply map, it is Mexico. Once a key producer, the country has dropped out of the world’s top six after a sharp decline in output. “Very dry conditions during planting prevented sowing,” Bertuzzi explained. As a result, Mexican production has fallen by about 1 million tonnes, and the country has effectively become a net importer of durum for the first time. That reversal is one of the few “new and unusual” elements in an otherwise familiar landscape of Mediterranean importers and North American exporters.

INELASTIC DEMAND, REBUILDING STOCKS, SOFTER PRICES

Durum demand is tightly linked to pasta and semolina output and is, in economic terms, highly inelastic. Consumers do not radically change their pasta consumption when prices move, and food manufacturers have limited room to substitute away from durum without compromising product specifications.

This means that when production drops sharply, prices can spike, while demand hardly moves. In the current recovery phase, the opposite is true: production is outpacing relatively stable consumption, allowing stocks to be rebuilt.

According to Bertuzzi, ending stocks are rising in most major regions. On a global basis, the market is running a modest surplus, and for a second year in a row world inventories are being replenished.

Prices are responding accordingly. Comparing the current marketing year with the previous three, Bertuzzi showed that durum prices are down across the board. Key European origins such as Italy, France, Spain and Greece have seen quotations fall by around 17% or more since the start of the season. North American prices are also lower, with Canadian and US benchmarks down in a 6–14% range from early-season levels.

TÜRKİYE’S ROLE SHIFTS AS CANADA DOMINATES ITALIAN IMPORTS

One of the most striking changes for Mediterranean buyers has been the shift in competitiveness between origins supplying Italy. Historically, Canadian No. 1 durum, delivered into Italy, has been the reference import grade. During the tight 2023/24 season, however, Turkish and Kazakh durum captured a larger share of Italian imports, thanks to attractive prices at a time of poor Italian crops.

In the current campaign, that picture has reversed. Heavy Canadian supplies have narrowed the price spread with other exporters, while Turkish durum has become “the least competitive option into Italy”, Bertuzzi noted.

At the same time, Türkiye’s domestic market has followed its own dynamics. A strong upward price trend was eventually capped by Turkish Grain Board (TMO) sales at levels below prevailing market prices in key producing regions such as Gaziantep and Konya. Bertuzzi cited market estimates that TMO sold around 400,000 tonnes of durum in October and November combined, helping to cool local prices.

Italy’s overall import pace is also slowing. Cumulative imports are still around 23% above last year, but much of that buying took place early in the marketing year, when Italian mills turned to old-crop Canadian and US durum to complement a new crop with uneven protein levels. More recently, arrivals have tailed off, and Türkiye’s share within that import mix has dropped sharply.

North African buyers have also been relatively quiet. Algeria and Tunisia have launched only two durum tenders so far this season, compared with a more typical four or five by this point. Tender prices look similar to last year despite lower FOB levels, a reflection of higher ocean freight and export handling costs out of North America – a differential that Bertuzzi put at around 40 US dollars per tonne.

PASTA TARIFFS: A NEW WILD CARD IN US–ITALY TRADE

While climatic risks and freight costs remain familiar features of the durum market, Bertuzzi argued that one of the most potentially disruptive variables ahead is political: the US–Italy dispute over pasta imports.

EU pasta exports – overwhelmingly Italian, accounting for an estimated 95% of volumes – have become increasingly dependent on the US market. Between 2020 and 2021, Italy’s sales to the US grew sharply, both in market share and absolute volume.

Against this backdrop, the United States launched an anti-dumping investigation into imported dry pasta. Italian exports already face a 15% general duty, but Washington has been considering additional duties of up to 92% on top of that.

“These measures were due to start in January,” Bertuzzi reminded the audience. “Thanks to the US government shutdown, the decision has been postponed, giving the Italian Ministry of Agriculture some time to negotiate.” If confirmed, the higher tariffs would apply to all dry pasta exports, with only fresh, filled and organic pasta excluded – a relatively small niche within the overall market.

For durum wheat, the implications would be significant. A sharp reduction in Italian pasta exports to the US would reverberate all along the value chain, from millers back to farmers, and could alter trade flows of durum grain itself. It could also open space for competing origins – including Turkish pasta exporters – to expand their presence if they are not targeted by similar measures.