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Escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel is sending shockwaves through global energy, fertilizer and grain markets as shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten one of the world’s most critical trade corridors.

The World Bank projects a modest dip in its agricultural price index this year, with food and raw-material prices broadly steady—but warns that extreme weather, shifts in U.S.–China trade policy, fertiliser costs and biofuel demand could quickly reprice markets.

Although the production and consumption of alternative grain and agricultural products used in flou...