International Grain Council IGC announced its latest report for global grain market on 29 September. According to the report of IGC, global wheat production is increasing. As to the report, global wheat production which was 717 million tons in 2013/14 season and reached 730 million tons in 2014/15 season rose to 736 million tons with an increase of 6 million tons in 2015/16 season. Informing that this increase will continue in 2016/17 season, IGC also adds the production amount will reach 747 million tons at the end of the season.

Becoming more and more significant in terms of nutrition and food safety, wheat is the most produced grain in the world with more than 220 million hectare cultivation land. The main reason why wheat is such a common grain is that it is cultivated in many regions and that our basic foodstuff bread is made from it. Therefore, most of the countries in the world consider wheat as a strategic product and pursue their policies as to this.

Today, countries like China, India, USA, Russia, Australia, Canada, Ukraine, Turkey and Kazakhstan are the top wheat producers in the world. While China and India use their production in domestic market Turkey and Kazakhstan export it processing wheat into flour and compete with each other in global flour trade. USA, Russia, Australia, Canada and Ukraine directly involve in competition in terms of wheat export.

WORLD WHEAT PRODUCTION AND MAJOR PRODUCER COUNTRIES

International Grain Council IGC announced its latest report for global grain market on 29 September. According to the report of IGC, global wheat production is increasing. As to the report, global wheat production which was 717 million tons in 2013/14 season and reached 730 million tons in 2014/15 season rose to 736 million tons with an increase of 6 million tons in 2015/16 season. Informing that this increase will continue in 2016/17 season, IGC also adds the production amount will reach 747 million tons at the end of the season. Data of United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agriculture Service (USDA FAS) is nearly the same with the data of IGC. According to the data of USDA, wheat production amount which was 728 million tons in 2014/15 season increased at 735 million tons in 2015/16 season. USDA also forecasts 744 million tons for 2016/17 season.

According to USDA data, European Union countries take the lead in world wheat production for 2015/16 season with 160 million tons. It is assumed that the wheat production of European Union countries will drop in 2016/17 season and be realized as 143 million tons. The biggest producer as a single country is China as usual. China has produced 130 million tons of wheat in 2015/16 season and it is predicted that this amount will be 128 million tons for 2016/17 season.

India follows China with 86,5 million tons in 2014/15 season. It is assumed that the wheat production is expected to increase (90 million tons) in India, on the contrary of in EU and in Chine, for 2016/17 season. Russia has the 4th place, following India; Russia has produced 61 million tons of wheat in 2015/16 season, and it is assumed that this amount will increase to 72 million tons in 2016/17 season. USA (56 million tons), Canada and Ukraine (27 million tons for both), Pakistan (25 million tons) and Australia (24 million tons) follow these countries. Turkey also has the tenth place in world wheat production with 19,5 million tons of production.

WORLD WHEAT CONSUMPTION AND MAJOR CONSUMER COUNTRIES In parallel with wheat production, global consumption also increases. As to the data of IGC, the growth amount of the last three seasons is 22 million tons. In other words, global wheat consumption which was 699 million tons in 2013/14 season reached at 716 million tons in 2014/15 season, 721 million tons in 2015/16 season and 721 million tons in 2015/16 season. IGC forecasts that this amount will reach at 734 million tons in 2016/17 season.

When the data of USDA for global wheat consumption is considered it is seen that the last two season’s data is 10 million tons less than the data of IGC for the last two seasons except for 2016/17. As to USDA, the consumption amount which was 697 million tons in 2013/14 season reached at 706 million tons in 2014/15 season and 711 million tons in 2015/16 season. The forecast of USDA which is 735 million tons for 2016/17 season is close to the forecast of IGC.

According to USDA data, the highest rate of wheat consumption, as in its production, belongs to European Union countries. European countries are also expected to be the top again with consumption amount of nearly 129 million tons in 2016/17 season. However, on a single country basis, China is the leader in consumption with 112 million tons. In the same season, India with 88,6 million tons, Russia with 37 million tons, USA with 32 million tons and Pakistan with 24,4 million tons, Egypt with 19,2 million tons and Iran with 18 million tons follows China. Turkey and Iran are also the ninth with its wheat production amount of 18 million tons.

WORLD WHEAT TRADE According to the report of IGC, global wheat trade which was 157 million tons in 2013/14 season and 153 million tons in 2014/15 season was recorded as 165 million tons in 2015/16 season. However, despite the expectations for the growth of production, a growth in trade is not expected. Even as to IGC, global wheat trade will decrease 1 million tons (165 million tons).

USDA data shows that global wheat trade which was 161,5 million tons in 2014/15 season will reach at 172 million tons in 2015/16 season and 173,5 million tons in 2016/17 season. Forecasting an increase of 1 million tons in current season, the data of USDA is nearly 6-7 million tons more than the data of IGC. The reason why the data of USDA is higher is that flour trade is also included in this data. According to USDA data, 34,6 million tons of total world wheat and flour trade which was 172 million tons in 2015/16 season was done by European Union countries. Russia has the second place with 25,5 million tons. Other countries are Canada with 22 million tons, USA with 21,8 million tons, Ukraine with 17,4 million tons and Australia with 15,7 million tons, Argentina with 8,8 million tons, Kazakhstan with 7,6 million tons and Turkey with 5,6 million tons. However, while Kazakhstan and Turley is included in this list mostly with flour trade, other countries are prominent mostly with wheat export amount.

When the forecast of USDA for 2016/17 season is considered, it is seen that the export amount of USA, Canada and Ukraine will decrease; that export amount of Russia, USA and Australia will increase. According to the report, with 9,6 million tons, EU countries has the highest decrease amount among these countries; Russia has also the highest increase rate with 4,5 million tons.

Egypt has long been in the first place for world wheat import. According to the data of USDA, Egypt which has imported between 8 and 15 million tons of wheat between 2012/13 and 2014/15 seasons; and this amount has reached at 11,9 million tons in 2015/16 season. Indonesia which comes right after Egypt imported 7,4 million tons of wheat while it imported 10,1 million tons of wheat with an increase of 2,5 million tons in 2015/16 season. Indonesia is followed by Algeria with 8,1 million tons, EU countries with 6,9 million tons, Brazil with 5,9 million tons and Japan with 5,7 million tons. It is forecasted that wheat import of Indonesia will decrease 1,5 million tons and other countries will import at nearly the same level in 2015/16 season.

WHEAT PRODUCTION IN TURKEY Wheat can be produced almost in all regions of Turkey and it comes first in terms of cultivated area and production. Wheat is produced in all regions of Turkey; but the Central Anatolian region like Konya, Eskisehir, Ankara and Kirsehir; and Southeastern Anatolia (Sanliurfa, Diyarbakir and Mardin) are the two important regions for wheat production.

The fluctuation in the cultivated area, production and productivity of wheat in Turkey still continues for especially changes in climate. Highest rate of production was in 2015 between the years 2005-2015. The highest cultivated area rate between the same years was reached in 2005. According to Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) data, while the cultivated area of wheat has reached to its highest level for the last 10 years in 2005 by 92,5 million decares the production has risen to 21,5 million tons in the same season. However in the following years, cultivation land has decreased to a large extent and this area was recorded as 77 million decares in 2013. Increasing a little and reaching at 79 million decares, wheat cultivation area in Turkey remained around 78 million decares in 2015.

Despite the decrease in cultivation lands, yields continue to be increase although it is not steady. By this means, despite the decrease in cultivation area, the production amount remained around 20 million tons. When the data of TUIK considered, it is seen that the production changes around 17 million tons and 23 million tons in the last 10 years. Remaining around 20million tons in 2012, the production amount reached at 22 million tons in 2013 and decreased to 19 million tons in 2014 due to drought. Increase in production continued in 2015 and reached at 22,6 million tons.

WHEAT AND FLOUR TRADE IN TURKEY Turkey is the exporter country in global wheat trade. However wheat import of Turkey is caused by the need of final product producers for quality wheat, not by inadequate wheat production. This import amount is also around thousands tons. Turkey is the most significant exporters of final product, in other words flour and pasta. According to the data of TUIK, Turkey which exports 1,9 million tons of flour in 2011 and 2012 increased this amount to 2,1 million tons in 2013. The value of this export amount is 946 million dollars. Gaining 931 million dollars for 2,2 million tons of flour export in 2014, Turkey reached at 2,7 million tons in quantity basis and 978 million dollars in value basis.