World Wheat and Flour Market

19 November 201413 min reading
Wheat production in the world has increased considerably for the last two seasons. World wheat and flour market spent the 2012/13 season with a lower production than previous season and this caused high wheat prices due to this decline in the production. However in 2013/14 season the production has reached to 713 million tons with a record increase and the fact that it continued to the season we are in was very satisfying for the producers if not for the investors.  Production forecasts are in the direction of wheat production in the world in 2014/15 season shall be carried out around the level of 718 million tons. As a cultivated plant, wheat has the highest level of production in the world and is indispensable for the nutrition, trade and crop rotation systems of many countries. Cultivation area and production of wheat increase in parallel with the population growth since it has no alternative especially in terms of nutrition. The world population was over one billion in 1802, around two billion in 1927 and over 7 billion in 2012. According to the estimates, the world population will reach 8.5 billion by 2020, 9.6 billion by 2030 and 12 billion by 2050. wheat production in the world was 222 million tons during 1960s, it increased to 586 million tons in 2000s; 650 million tons in 2012 and 713 million tons in 20143 parallel to the population growth. World wheat consumption per capita was 70 kg in 1960s while it is now estimated to be around 100 kg pro capita. World average wheat yield has reached up to 300 kg/da in recent years. Up until now, increase in the world wheat production depended mostly on the increase in cultivation area but it is thought that in the forthcoming years world wheat production will be increased by enhancing the yield per unit rather than by enlarging the cultivation area. WHEAT PRODUCTION IN THE WORLD According to the data obtained from the International Grains Council (IGC), wheat production standing at 679 million tons in the 2009/2010 season receded to 653 million tons by a decrease of 26 million tons in the 2010/2011 season and reached to 695 million tons with an increase of 42 million tons in 2011/12 season. Wheat production in the world decreased to 655 million tons with a record decrease of 40 million tons in 2012/13 season but then reached to 713 million tons in 2013/14 season with a record increase. This increase which relieved the market is expected to continue in 2014/15 season, as well. IGC has foreseen a 4 million tons of increase for the 2014/15 season in 25 September dated report and then increased this rate to 5 million tons in the latest report dated 30 October. According to this wheat production in the world shall be carried out around 718 million tons in 2013/14 season. World wheat production data from the Foreign Agriculture Service US Department of Agriculture (USDA FAS) support the reports of IGC However; in the forecasts about 2014/15 season, expectations of USDA were much higher in October. USDA foreseen a 721 million tons of production for 2014/15 season in October but decreased this to 719 million tons in November. European Union has the first place in wheat production in the world in 2013/14 season with 143,1 million tons of production volume. However a country-based analysis shows that a large part of the world wheat production is met by China, India, USA and Russia in 2013/14 season as always. According to USDA data, out of 714 million tons of world wheat production in the 2013/14 season, 325,5 million tons of wheat is produced in these four countries (China 121,9 million tons, India 93,5 million tons, USA 58,1 million tons, Russia 52 million tons). These four countries are followed by Canada with 37,5 million tons, Australia with 27 million tons, Pakistan with 24 million tons, Ukraine with 22,2 million tons, and Turkey with 18 million tons. When USDA data are reviewed among the countries which has the lead in wheat production in the world wheat production of USA has decreased by 3 million tons when compared to previous season however Russia's production has increased by 14 million tons, Canada's production has increased by approximately 10 million tons, Australia’s production has increased by 5 million tons, Ukraine’s production has increased by 7 million tons. USDA forecasts that in 214/15 season the wheat production of China which is among the largest wheat producers shall increase by approximately 4 million tons, the wheat production of India shall increase by approximately 2 million tons, the wheat production of Russia shall increase by approximately 7 million tons, the wheat production of Pakistan shall increase by approximately 1 million tons and the wheat production of Ukraine shall increase by approximately 2 million tons. According to the USDA data which forecasts decrease for USA, Canada and Australia the wheat production of USA shall decrease by approximately 3 million tons, the wheat production of Canada shall decrease by approximately 10 million tons and the wheat production of Australia shall decrease by approximately 3 million tons. World end-of-season wheat stocks, on the other hand, are estimated to increase by 8 million tons in the 2014/15 season. An analysis of IGC data on end-of-season stocks reveals that the world wheat stock standing at 191 million tons are expected to decrease to 169 million tons in the 2012/13 season and in the 2013/2014 season they are expected to increase and reach 185 million tons. The world end-of-season wheat stocks forecast of IGC for the 2014/15 season is 193 million tons WORLD WHEAT CONSUMPTION IGC figures on general consumption show that the world wheat consumption standing at 698 million tons in the 2011/12 season, decreased to 677 million tons with a record decrease of 21 million tons in 2012/413 season. In 2013/14 the consumption has increased again and reached to 697 million tons. IGC’s forecasts for 2014/15 indicates another increase. According to IGC, wheat consumption in the world shall reach 710 million tons with an increase of 13 million tons in 2014/15 season. China, having the largest share in the world wheat production, also has the largest wheat consumption. According to USDA data; China’s wheat consumption in the 2013/14 season is parallel to its wheat production with 121 million tons. As it is understood from these data; China uses almost all of its production for the domestic consumption. As another important producer, India has a consumption level of 94 million tons as opposed to 93,5 million tons of production. USA, which ranked third with 58,1 million tons of production in the country-based analysis for the 2013/14 season, uses 34,1 million tons of its wheat production for domestic consumption. Russia, consumes 34,1 million tons of consumption out of its 52 million tons of production. These four countries, which ranked at the top in consumption as well as in production during the 2013/14 season, are followed by Pakistan with 24,1 million tons, Egypt with 18 million tons, Iran with 18 million tons, Turkey with 17,7 million tons and Ukraine with 11,5 million tons. WHEAT TRADE IN THE WORLD According to the IGC report, the quantity of wheat traded worldwide in the 2009/10 season is 128 million tons. World wheat trade volume decreasing to 126 million tons in 2010/11 season reached to 145 million tons in the 2011/12 season with a record increase. In the 2012/13 season, on the other hand, the world wheat trade was realized in parallel with the decrease in production. Estimating that the world wheat trade decreased to 141 million tons by a decrease of 4 million tons in 2012/13 season as compared to the previous season; IGC forecasts that the trade increased 14 million tons in the 2013/14 season and reached 155 million tons. According to USDA data, which differ from the IGC data when compared; world wheat trade that was 147 million tons in 2012/13 season and it reached to 162,1 million tons level in 2013/14 season. USDA predicts that the wheat trade in the world shall decrease to 155,2 million tons in 2014/15 season. According to USDA data, out of the 162,1 million tons of what export in the world, an important portion of approximately 90 million tons carried out by 4 countries. As a country shaping the wheat trade in the world, USA alone carried out 31,4 million tons of the world wheat export in the 2013/14 season. Exporting 28,1 million tons of wheat in 2012/13 season; United States reached the highest wheat and flour export level of the last four years in the 2010/11 season with 36 million-ton export. The forecasted export quantity for USA in 2013/14 season is 25,5 million tons. Canada is another major actor in the world wheat and flour trade, taking the second place following the USA, with a wheat and flour export of 22,1 million tons in the 2013/14 season. Canada exported 18,5 million tons of wheat in 2012/13 season. It has been forecasted that the country shall export 22,5 million tons of wheat in 2014/15 season. Russia is following Canada in wheat export in the world in 2013/14 season. According to USDA data; the amount of export carried out by Russia was 18,5 million tons in 2013/14 season. It has been forecasted that the country shall increase its export and reach to level of 22,5 million tons. Australia which had the second place after USA in wheat export in the world in 2012/13 season with 21,2 million tons, was after Canada and Russia in 2013/14 season. Australia which has the fourth place in wheat trade in the world has carried out an export of 18,3 million tons in 2013/14 season. It has been forecasted that the export amount of Australia shall stay at 18 million tons in 2014/15 season. Based on the world wheat export data of the 2013/14 season, Australia is followed by Ukraine with 9,7 million tons, Kazakhstan with 8 million tons, India with 5,3 million tons and Turkey with 4,2 million tons. All of the numbers about world wheat trade given in the data of IGC and USDA here cover the wheat and flour export based on wheat. If flour export is taken individually, ranking of the countries changes completely. The two most dominant countries in the world flour trade are Kazakhstan and Turkey. Kazakhstan is the leader of worldwide quantity-based flour export with an export quantity of 3.5 million tons during the 2009/10 season while the export quantity of Turkey –world’s second biggest flour exporter- was 2.6 million tons during the same period. While Kazakhstan exports to only 5 countries, Turkey exports to more than 100 countries. While Kazakhstan gained 606 million dollar with 2,2 million-ton export, Turkey gained 841 million dollars with 1,9 million tons. According to the statistics of International Grain Council; Turkey and Kazakhstan were at a draw with 2,8 million tons of export of wheat in 2012/13 season. It is estimated that Kazakhstan will export 3 million tons of flour and Turkey will export 2,8 million tons of flour in new season. Egypt has the biggest share of the world wheat import like in previous seasons. According to USDA data; Egypt imported 10,1 million tons of wheat out of 162,1 million tons of world wheat import during the 2013/14 season and forecasts suggest that it will remain at the top in the 2014/15 season, as well, with an import of 9.5 million tons. Algeria follows Egypt in world wheat import in 2014/15 season. It has been forecasted that Algeria which has imported 7,4 million tons in 2013/14 season, shall have the same import level in 2014/15 as well. In world wheat import Algeria is being followed by Indonesia with 7,3 million tons, Brazil with 7 million tons, Iran with 6,6 million tons and Japan with 6,1 million tons. WHEAT AND FLOUR PRODUCTION IN TURKEY When we analyze Turkey’s historical developments in terms of wheat it is seen that the production has increased steadily. Based on the Turkish Statistical Institute (Tüik) data the wheat production which was at 2,5 million tons in 1930’s has increased to 10 million tons in 1967 and 20,6 million tons in 2009 and 21,8 million tons in 2011. Wheat production which decreased a little to 20,1 million tons In 2012, has reached 22 million tons in 2013 with an increase of 2 million tons. However it is known that there is a considerable decrease in the current season due to drought. It has been estimated that the wheat production in Turkey shall be at a level of 18 million tons in 2014/15 season for which the harvest season is almost completed. Based on the Tüik data The rate of wheat production increase between 1930 and 2013 is 780%. Such an increase in production was influenced by the increase in cultivated areas up to a certain point, with soil improvement and proper cultivation techniques becoming more influential at later times. As a matter of fact, the size of wheat cultivation areas was 2.8 acres in 1930, reaching 8 million acres by 1967, which is the same level in 2011. In 2012, cultivation areas decreased nearly 5 million hectares. On the other hand, yield per unit, standing at 92 kg/da in 1930, reached 125 kg/da in 1967 increasing by 35.9 % and hit 269 kg/da in 2011 and decreased to 267 kg/da in 2012. Both the reduction in cultivation areas and yield caused the production amount decreased in 2012. Between 1967 and 2012, the increase in cultivation areas was 1. % whereas the increase in yield surpassed 100%. For the increase in 2013 when compared to previous season, cultivation areas and yield increase has an important place. There was a considerable increase especially in the yield. The yield which was 267kg/da in 2012 has increased to 284 kg/da in 2013. FLOUR TRADE IN TURKEY Turkey’s share in 8-10 million tons of average global flour trade, subject to change by years, is around 2 million tons. Turkey ranked first in global flour exports in 2005 and in recent years it has maintained the second place after Kazakhstan. Nevertheless, Turkey is the leader of the world flour export in terms of value, since it produces higher quality flour thanks to its technological superiority. In the first five months of 2011, Turkey imported 679 thousand tons of flour to 75 countries, which generated an income of 324.3 million dollars. Based on the Tüik data, the amount of flour exported throughout 2011 is 1,9 million tons and its value is 891 million dollars. Turkey has gained 840 million dollars of income from an export close to 2 million tons in 2012; has increased its export to 2,1 million tons (946 million dollars) in 2013. Estimated export amount for 2014 is 1,6 million tons (701 million dollars). The number of the countries Turkey exports is more than 100 today.
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