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World Rye and Oats Market

05 August 201611 min reading
Global production of rye and oats which is highly limited compared to the cereals like wheat, rice, corn and barley started to gain value especially with trending nutritional habits. Majority of average annual production of 12-14 million tons of rye in the world is provided by EU and Russia. According to USDA data; world rye production which was recorded as 12.1 million tons in the 2015/16 season will increase and reach at 22.8 million tons in the new season. i_80_10 Oat is also another cereal grain; however its appearance is highly different than wheat, barley and rye. Oat which can be easily distinguished from the other cereal grains with its scattered spike -shaped bunches has higher production amount compared to rye. Oat which is used mostly for animal feed and contains many starch, protein, vitamin and minerals is not used for bread making due to its swelling problem. Oat flour is mostly used for foods like porridge and flatbread; it seeds are generally used in grain mixtures having high nutritional value and biscuit production. Oat is also another cereal grain; however its appearance is highly different than wheat, barley and rye. Oat which can be easily distinguished from the other cereal grains with its scattered spike -shaped bunches has higher production amount compared to rye. Oat which is used mostly for animal feed and contains many starch, protein, vitamin and minerals is not used for bread making due to its swelling problem. Oat flour is mostly used for foods like porridge and flatbread; it seeds are generally used in grain mixtures having high nutritional value and biscuit production. WORLD OATS PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION An important part of production of oats that the annual average is around 22 million tons is offered by EU, Russia, Canada and Australia. According to USDA data; 21.1 million tons in 2012/13 realized as the actual world oat production, increased approximately 2 million tons in 2013/14, up to 23.4 million tons. Production receding to 22.5 million tons in the 2014/15 season, decreased to 22.1 million tons in the 2015/16 season. It is expected that production will increase a little and reach at 22.8 million tons in 2016/17. Regarding the country ranking in terms of estimates for 2016/17 season, EU countries are in the first place with 8.1 million tons in global oats production as in rye production. EU countries were in the first place with 7.5 million tons in 2015/16 season. EU countries are followed by Russia with 4.5 million tons, Canada with 3.2 million tons, Australia with 1.5 million tons and USA with 1.1, Brazil with 650 thousand tons, China with 600 thousand tons. Expectations are the lowest for Canada and USA compared to 2015/16 season. It is expected that Australia which produced 3.4 million tons of oats in 2015/16 season will produce 230 thousand tons in 2016/16, and USA which produced 1.3 million tons in 2015/16 season will produce 200 thousand tons in 2016/17. The consumption of oats is intense where it is produced and shows a similar table with production as in rye consumption. It is seen that oats consumption is around 21-24 million tons in the whole world. 2012/13 world consumption of around 21.9 million tons of oats increased to 23 million tons in the 2013/14 season and has declined to 22.4 million tons in the 2014/15 season. Global oats consumption which continues to decline and remain around 22.2 million tons in 2015/16 season is expected to increase a little and reach at 22.8 million tons in 2016/17. In 2015/16 season, the largest share in total world consumption of 22.2 million belongs to the EU countries with 7.5 million tons of consumption (as it is also the same in production). EU countries are estimated to increase its consumption amount and reach at 7.8 million tons in 2016/17 season. EU countries are expected to be followed with consumption of 4.5 million tons by Russia, with consumption of 2.6 million tons by USA, 1.6 million tons of consumption by Canada and with 1.1 million tons of consumption by Australia in 2016/17 season. Compared to 2015/16 season, the highest increase is expected to be in Brazil with 300 thousand tons, EU with 225 thousand tons, Australia with 200 thousand tons; and the lowest will be Russia with 100 thousand tons and Argentina with 50 thousand tons. WORLD OATS TRADE Amount of rye in the world trade is very small as in oats production. Every year average 2 million tons of oats are exported and imported. In world oats trade, the largest export share belongs to Canada. Canada is the country almost realizing more than 70 percent of oats exports of the world. It is foreseen for Canada which exported 1.6 million tons of oats in 2015/16 season to perform an oats export of 1.7 million tons in 2016/17 season. Canadian oats exports are followed by Australia with 300 thousand tons and EU countries with 200 million tons in 2016/17 season. A similar table in the oats export table of the world is seen in the oats imports. Referring to the world oats imports, it is seen that almost all of the world’s imports are performed by the United States. 1.5 million tons of oats import of USA in the 2015/16 season is expected to perform the import of 1.6 million tons in 2016/17 season. In world oats import USA is followed by China with 200 thousand tons, Mexico with 100 thousand tons and Japan with 50 thousand tons. WORLD RYE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION Most of the world production of rye which 12-14 million tons per year in average is provided by EU countries and Russia. According United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agriculture Service (USDA FAS) data; 13.7 million tons in 2012/13 as the actual world rye production, increased approximately 15.7 million tons in 2010/11 with an increase of 2 million tons. Starting to decrease again in 2014/15 season and reaching at 14.4 million tons, the production amount decreased to 12.1 million tons in 2015/16 season. According to the data of USDA, global rye production will continue to increase in 2016/17 season and remain around 13 million tons. According to the estimates of USDA for 2016/17, EU takes first place with 8.1 million tons in global rye production of 13 million tons. Russia with 2.5 million tons, Belarus with 800 thousand tons, Ukraine with 350 thousand tons, Turkey with 350 thousand tons, and Canada with 325 thousand tons and USA with 311 thousand tons follow EU countries respectively. As to these estimates, rye production of EU countries will be higher of 350 thousand tons compared to 2015/16 season. The decline is expected in any leading rye producer countries except for Ukraine. Majority of rye is consumed where it is produced. Therefore, consumption amount and the ranking of the countries are nearly the same with the production. According to USDA data, global consumption amount of rye which was around 13.5 million tons in 2012/13 increase by about 2 million tons to 15.1 million tons in 2013/14. In the 2014/15 season world rye consumption which was at the level of 14.3 million tons decreased to 12.6 million tons in the 2015/16 season. Rye consumption is expected to be around 13 million tons in 2016/17 season. The consumption ranking of the countries seems to be the same with the production ranking in 2016/17 season. According to USDA data, the rye consumption of EU countries was 8.1 million tons in 2015/16 season. This amount will increase to 8.2 million tons in 2016/17 season. However, EU countries will continue to be the top in consumption ranking in both situations. The largest consumption amount on country basis belongs to Russia as in production. Russia which is assumed to have consumed 2.3 million tons of rye in 2016/17 season is followed by Belarus with 850 thousand tons, USA with 525 thousand tons and Ukraine with 350 thousand tons. WORLD RYE TRADE As it can be observed from production and consumption data majority of rye is consumed in the country it is produced or a very small amount is exported to neighboring countries. Therefore, the global rye trade is only around 340 thousand tons in the 2015/16 season. This amount is estimated to increase 420 thousand tons in 2016/17 season. Approximately half of the global rye trade in 2015/16 season (160 thousand tons) was exported by EU countries. It is estimated that export amount of EU countries will decrease to 150 thousand tons in 2016/17 season. Both ways, EU will be top in exports as in production and consumption. Russia taking the second place in the world rye export in 2014/15 season exported 50 thousand tons and ranked in the third place in 2015/16 season. It is estimated that Russia will continue to be the third with 100 thousand tons in 2016/17 season. Canada which exported 89 thousand tons in 2014/15 season and lost its place to Russia with this amount is estimated to share the second place with Russia with 100 thousand tons in 2015/16 season. It is estimated that Canada remains second with an export amount of 150 thousand tons in 2016/17 season. As it is understood from the difference between production and consumption, the largest share of imports of rye is in the United States. Rye import amount carried out in the USA in 2015/16 season is 200 thousand tons. This is estimated to be around 200 thousand tons in 2016/17 season. In global rye imports in 2016/17 season, EU countries follow USA in import with 100 thousand tons, with 25 thousand tons Israel, 20 thousand tons with Japan and Norway. RYE AND OATS PRODUCTION IN TURKEY Rye and oats cultivation areas in Turkey; come after wheat, barley, maize and rice. Rye cultivation area in Turkey in 1960 which was 670 thousand hectares has dropped to 242 thousand hectares in 1987. Products derived from this area were approximately 380 thousand tons, according to 1987 data. The present contraction in cultivation areas has been continued till today and in 2011 they were decreased to 128 thousand hectares. Cultivation areas which showed some increase in 2012 reaching to 143 thousand hectares remained at 138 thousand hectares in 2013 and decreased to 115 thousand tons in 2014. It decreased to 115 thousand hectares in 2014 and 112 thousand tons in 2015. Despite the contraction of cultivation areas the increase in productivity has been effective in increasing production. According to the data of Turkey Statistical Institute (TSI), rye production which was 220 thousand tons of in Turkey in 2001, reached to 270 thousand tons in 2005, 343 thousand tons in 2009, and in 2013 365 thousand tons. However, a significant decrease has been realized in 2014 and rye production of Turkey remained at 300 thousand tons. Production increased again and reached at 330 thousand tons in 2015. Efficiency showed an increase of 41 percent in the last 10 years and reached to 294 kg in 2015 while it was 208 kg in 2005. Oats cultivation area in Turkey is much lower when compared to rye. Between 1938 and 1960, there was a steady increase in oats cultivation areas and began narrowing in subsequent years. In 1938, an oats cultivation area which was 248 thousand hectares has reached to 430 thousand hectares in 1960. However, a narrowing began in cultivation areas since 1960 and in 1975 decreased to 260 thousand hectares, 133 thousand hectares in 2005, in 2012 to 89 thousand hectares which was a very small area. In 2013 the cultivation are of oats was 93 thousand hectares and in 2014 it reached to 94 thousand hectares with an increase and 103 thousand tons in 2015. The production parallel to the cultivation area has increased in recent years and was followed by a steady decline for the next years. In 1964 oats production was reached to 550 thousand tons, 355 thousand tons in 1980 and dropped to 270 thousand tons in 1990. Since the 1990s, stability has not been achieved in the manufacturing and in 2000 production which was realized as 314 thousand tons fell to 189 thousand tons in 2007, increased in the following years and in 2012 reached to 210 thousand tons. In 2013, 235 thousand tons of oats production occurring in 2014 season remained at 210 thousand tons. Production increased as in cultivation area and yield amount and reached at 250 thousand tons in 2015.
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