The Turkish National Grain Council (UHK) has released its first official forecast for Turkey’s 2024/25 wheat production season. Speaking at the Pre-Harvest Grain Congress held in Mardin from April 25 to 27, UHK Board Member Prof. Dr. Bayram Sade projected that wheat output will drop to 18.6 million tonnes due to severe drought. Turkey faced its driest October–March period in 65 years, making May rainfall critical in determining final yields. 

The Pre-Harvest Grain Congress, one of the Turkish grain industry’s most significant annual events, was held with the participation of Agriculture and Forestry Minister İbrahim Yumaklı and brought together leading voices in agriculture to assess production outlooks, market dynamics, trade strategies, and sectoral innovations.

Delivering the opening remarks, UHK Chairman Özkan Taşpınar emphasized Turkey’s strength as an agricultural exporter. “Turkey is a self-sufficient country in agriculture and maintains a surplus in agricultural foreign trade,” he stated. “In 2024, Turkey exported $32.6 billion worth of agricultural products, achieving a $5.4 billion trade surplus. Specifically, we exported 8.5 million tonnes of wheat-equivalent finished products, compared to 4.5 million tonnes of wheat imports, generating $4.2 billion in export revenue.”

UHK Chairman Özkan Taşpınar

Noting that 75% of Turkey’s agricultural land is devoted to grain production, Taşpınar said, “Grains form the backbone of both crop and livestock sectors. Addressing challenges in grain production is key to resolving structural issues in Turkish agriculture.” He added that the combination of drought and frost earlier in the year had caused significant damage in some regions. “The impact is particularly severe in Southeastern and Central Anatolia. However, if current precipitation trends continue, we may still achieve yields close to multi-year averages in some areas.”

TMO FULLY PREPARED FOR THE HARVEST

In his keynote address, Minister Yumaklı underlined the strategic importance of increasing Turkey’s agricultural productivity. “Grains are the most cultivated crop group in Turkey. Over the past 20 years, our grain production has increased by 14%, and by 22% over the past three years, reaching 39 million tonnes. Wheat remains central, with production over the past decade ranging from 17 to 22 million tonnes,” he said. “Still, this is not enough. Expanding wetland farming in arid regions will significantly boost production.”

Agriculture and Forestry Minister İbrahim Yumaklı

Yumaklı confirmed that all preparations for the 2025 harvest season have been completed. “TMO (Turkish Grain Board) is fully prepared for the upcoming procurement campaign. Our producers can be confident—the TMO will be on the ground to stabilize the market.”

The minister also addressed the increasing impact of climate change on agriculture, highlighting recent instances of extreme cold and frost. “These developments underscore the critical importance of agricultural insurance. The state currently covers 70% of insurance premiums. I urge all producers to take out insurance for protection.”

MAY RAINFALL KEY TO GRAIN YIELD AND QUALITY

TMO General Manager Ahmet Güldal offered further insight into the season’s outlook, noting that late March and early April rainfall had supported crop development, despite a dry March. “Precipitation in April and May is crucial for yield and quality. While Southeastern Anatolia remains under pressure, April rainfall in other regions was generally favorable,” he said, adding, “With our robust stock structure, there will be no grain supply shortage in Turkey.”

TMO General Manager Ahmet Güldal

WHEAT OUTPUT TO DECLINE DUE TO DROUGHT

During the congress, Prof. Dr. Bayram Sade provided a regional breakdown of anticipated wheat production declines for the 2025/26 season, based on national precipitation and temperature data and field observations. Compared to the long-term average, the following reductions are expected:

• Marmara: -4%
• Aegean: -6%
• Mediterranean: -7%
• Central Anatolia: -8%
• Southeastern Anatolia: -15%
• Eastern Anatolia: -5%

The only region projected to see an increase is the Black Sea, with a 5% rise in output.

Prof. Dr. Bayram Sade

Prof. Dr. Sade noted that Turkey’s wheat planting area for 2025/26 is estimated at 7.6 million hectares and projected that total production will drop by 6.75% compared to the long-term average of 20 million tonnes—bringing it to approximately 18.65 million tonnes.

TURKEY’S FLOUR EXPORTS DOWN 40%, SECTOR FACES STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES

Mesut Çakmak, Chairman of TUSAF

Mesut Çakmak, Chairman of the Turkish Flour Industrialists’ Federation (TUSAF), also shared key industry insights. He reported that Turkey entered the season with high wheat inventories but is expected to carry over a reasonable stock of about 4 million tonnes into the next season. Despite the lifting of wheat import restrictions in mid-March, flour exports fell by over 40% in Q1 compared to the same period last year. However, a rebound is anticipated in the coming months.

Çakmak cautioned that while Turkey has held the title of the world’s top flour exporter for a decade, increasing competition from Russia—whose flour exports surpassed 1 million tonnes in 2024—could alter the landscape. He also raised concerns about the political dispute between Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government, which is obstructing flour shipments from Turkey to southern Iraq. “We exported 1 million tonnes of flour to Iraq last year,” he noted. “If the issue persists, exports may fall to 750,000 tonnes this year.” He urged authorities to find urgent solutions.

Highlighting structural issues in the sector, Çakmak stated that Turkey currently has 430 operational flour mills with a total production capacity exceeding 32 million tonnes, though actual usage hovers around 23 million tonnes. “Many mills have been forced to shut down in recent years due to economic instability, trade restrictions, and currency pressures,” he added.