SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 2.1 million metric tons (MMT) to 42.9 MMT. Exports in the previous season are estimated at 40.8 MMT. The revision reflects improved crop prospects and stronger price competitiveness for Russian wheat.

The upgrade follows SovEcon’s June revision of its 2025 wheat production forecast, which was increased by 2.0 MMT to 83.0 MMT, driven by better crop conditions in the Central region. Another supporting factor is enhanced price competitiveness. As of early July, new-crop Russian wheat was offered at $225–228/MT FOB, undercutting Bulgarian and Romanian offers of around $230/MT FOB. With solid margins, Russian exporters may have room to reduce prices further if necessary.

Still, Russia may face strong competition early in the season from Romania and Bulgaria, where good harvests are expected. Additional competition may come from Ukraine, which will need to redirect more wheat to non-EU destinations in 2025/26. In June, the USDA left its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast unchanged at 45.0 MMT.

Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon, said: “While strong exports from Russia and the wider Black Sea region could pressure global wheat prices, we expect Russia’s early-season sales to be less aggressive than in 2024/25. This is due to expected reduced domestic supply, driven by lower carry-in stocks.”