Turkey’s flour industry faced a challenging start to 2025, with wheat flour exports plunging 39.7% in the first quarter to 605,000 tons, down from the previous year, due to wheat import restrictions. However, lifting of wheat import ban in March has rekindled optimism among Turkish millers.
The decline, which reduced flour exports’ value to USD 232.4 million and its share of total cereal exports to 7.2%, reflects the fallout from a ban imposed in June 2024. However, with the restrictions eased as of March 18—following a phased quota increase from 15% to 25% in October—the sector is poised for a rebound, with projections to exceed 3.5 million tons by year-end.
The broader cereals, pulses, oilseeds, and processed products sector, a powerhouse in Turkey’s agricultural exports, posted a 3.9% rise in first-quarter exports, reaching USD 3.2 billion. Total cereal exports hit 3.4 million tons, up 5.3% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for chocolate and cocoa-based products (USD 292 million) and sunflower oil (USD 270.4 million). Iraq remained the top export destination at USD 539.1 million. The sector’s share of Turkey’s agricultural exports climbed to 50.5%, underscoring its resilience despite the flour segment’s struggles.
INDUSTRY LEADERS OPTIMISTIC AS BAN LIFTS
Gürsel Erbap, President of the Turkish Grain Suppliers Association (HUBUDER), hailed the removal of the import ban as a turning point. “This restores our ability to compete globally, recover lost markets, and ramp up sales,” he said, noting that the restrictions had triggered market shifts and export declines. “With access to competitively priced global wheat, we’re ready to reclaim our footing.”
Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy, Eurasia Director of the International Association of Operative Millers (IAOM), pointed to regional ripple effects from the ban. “Egypt capitalized on our pricing struggles, expanding its reach in markets we once dominated,” he explained. “The risk of losing regional market share was real, but lifting the ban now sets the stage for Turkish flour to regain its international edge.”
Ahmet Tiryakioğlu, Chairman of the TİM Cereals, Pulses, Oilseeds, and Processed Products Sector Council, offered a broader perspective. “As the world’s top wheat flour exporter, our policies shape global commodity trends,” he said. “The quotas since June slashed our flour exports by roughly 600,000 tons compared to last year. With global wheat at USD 250 per ton, reliance on domestic supply eroded our edge.” He highlighted Egypt’s gains in African markets and noted that currency appreciation and Russia’s reduced wheat supply had narrowed domestic-international price gaps. “Looking ahead, we expect a surge in flour exports, especially to Syria, where our trade ties are robust,” Tiryakioğlu added.
U.S. MARKET GAINS MOMENTUM
The U.S. emerged as a bright spot, with cereal exports soaring nearly 20% to USD 200 million in the first quarter, ranking the sector among Turkey’s top six exporters to the market. Tiryakioğlu attributed this to a tariff advantage—20% on the EU and 26% on India—coupled with rising U.S. demand for healthy, gluten-free, and vegan-friendly products like bulgur, chickpeas, and lentils. “These align perfectly with modern diets, opening doors for collaboration,” he said. “But the U.S. is a tough market—complex, competitive, and sensitive. Getting on shelves is just the start; staying there requires sharper branding, packaging, and pricing strategies.”