SovEcon, a leading Black Sea agricultural markets research firm, has cut its 2024 Russian wheat crop estimate by 1.0 million metric tons (MMT) to 93.0 MMT. This is the first forecast decrease in the current season.

The winter wheat crop is now estimated at 67.3 MMT, down from 68.2 MMT last month. The average yield estimate has been reduced from 4.12 mt/ha to 4.06 mt/ha, reflecting some deterioration in the crop conditions in the South. 

During the last few months, the key Russian wheat region, accounting for more than 40% of the total crop, has received limited precipitation. In the last month, the farmers have got only 40-80% of normal rain combined with above-average temperatures. Russia’s spring wheat crop is still projected at 25.7MMT. 

Weather models predict that the weather will remain hot (+2–6C above normal) and dry in the South during the next week. 

Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon, voiced concern, stating, “After a very good winter, weather conditions have been constantly deteriorating for Russia's southern regions. We are approaching a point of no return.  If there is no substantial precipitation in the region by mid-May, the wheat yield in the key Russian wheat grower and exporter is likely to suffer badly”.