SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has raised its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast to 38.3 million metric tons (MMT), up from 36.4 MMT previously. In the 2024/25 season, Russian wheat exports are projected at 42.8 MMT.

The upward revision for 2025/26 wheat exports is primarily due to higher-than-expected beginning stocks, driven by lower exports in 2024/25 and a slight decline in domestic wheat consumption, as corn usage increases.

SovEcon forecasts Ukrainian wheat exports in 2025/26 at 16.0 MMT, slightly down from 16.2 MMT in 2024/25, reflecting smaller carry-in stocks.