The USDA’s January 2026 update to its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report reinforced a “comfortable supply” narrative across major row crops, pushing grain futures lower immediately after the release as traders priced in higher production and stocks for 2025/26.

The January WASDE report revised balance sheets higher across major crops, raising global wheat production and ending stocks, lifting U.S. corn production to a record and increasing global corn ending stocks, and increasing global soybean production and ending stocks. Futures reacted sharply right after the WASDE release, with Chicago wheat and corn selling off on the day as traders digested the more bearish supply signals.

WHEAT: GLOBAL OUTPUT AND STOCKS REVISED UP, PRESSURING PRICES

In wheat, USDA raised its 2025/26 world production estimate to 842.17 mln t, up from 837.81 mln t in December. World consumption was revised up to 823.91 mln t (from 822.97 mln t), but ending stocks climbed more sharply to 278.25 mln t (from 274.87 mln t), underlining a looser global supply cushion.

World wheat trade for 2025/26 was also revised higher in the January WASDE, rising by 1.1 mln t from 218.7 mln t in the December report to 219.8 mln t, as larger export forecasts for Argentina and Kazakhstan were only partly offset by lower projections for the EU and Ukraine.

KEY EXPORTER REVISIONS: RUSSIA AND ARGENTINA DRIVE THE STOCK BUILD

The January report’s most market-relevant adjustments were concentrated in the Black Sea and South America:
• Russia: Production revised up to 89.5 mln t (from 87.5 mln t); ending stocks up to 13.0 mln t (from 11.5 mln t), while exports were kept unchanged at 46.0 mln t.
• Argentina: Production raised to 27.5 mln t (from 24.0 mln t); exports lifted to 16.0 mln t (from 14.5 mln t); ending stocks revised up to 6.01 mln t (from 4.52 mln t).
• European Union: Export estimate trimmed to 32.5 mln t (from 33.0 mln t).
• Ukraine: Export estimate reduced to 14.0 mln t (from 14.5 mln t).

USDA’s revisions also implied a higher combined ending-stocks position among key exporters, reinforcing expectations of intense competition—particularly from the Black Sea and South America—if logistics remain functional.

CORN: RECORD U.S. PRODUCTION AND A BIGGER GLOBAL STOCKPILE

In corn, the WASDE update pointed to a heavier global stocks picture. USDA lifted 2025/26 global corn ending stocks by about 11.8 mln t to 290.9 mln t, a meaningful month-on-month jump that strengthened the near-term “ample supply” framing.

On the U.S. side, USDA lifted the 2025 corn yield estimate to 186.5 bu/acre, pushing production to a record 17.0 bn bu. The resulting balance sheet showed higher U.S. ending stocks, adding to the downward pressure in prices immediately after the report.

SOYBEANS

In soybeans, the report combined a demand-side trim in U.S. exports with a stronger South American production outlook. USDA cut U.S. soybean exports to 1.575 bn bu, reflecting a 60 mln bu reduction from the prior month’s outlook. On the global side, USDA raised 2025/26 world soybean production to 425.7 mln t, including a 3.0 mln t upward revision for Brazil to 178.0 mln t. Global soybean ending stocks were increased to 124.4 mln t, reinforcing the idea that the world soybean balance sheet was also loosening at the margin.

GLOBAL WHEAT SUPPLY–DEMAND BALANCE (2025/26, mln t)

KEY COUNTRY REVISIONS IN WHEAT (2025/26, mln t)