SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has updated its forecasts for Ukraine’s 2024 grain production and exports, increasing its corn crop and export estimates. Meanwhile, the first estimate for Ukraine’s 2025 wheat crop suggests a slight decline from 2024 levels.

The 2024 Ukraine corn crop estimate has been raised by 1.6 million metric tons (MMT) to 25.1 MMT, driven by relatively high yields in northern regions. Corn export estimates for the 2024/25 season have also been increased by 1.3 MMT to 20.3 MMT. The current export pace remains strong as the new crop arrives and shipments to the European Union remain active. However, shipments may slow in the coming months as the EU import quota for Ukrainian corn is nearly exhausted. This could redirect Ukrainian corn supplies to other markets, including China, a key market for U.S. grain.

2024 WHEAT FORECAST AND EXPORTS

The wheat crop estimate for 2024 remains unchanged at 21.8 MMT. The wheat export forecast for the 2024/25 season has been increased by 0.6 MMT to 16.0 MMT, supported by steady export demand, especially from the EU, facing historically low crop this year.

WHEAT OUTPUT TO DIP SLIGHTLY IN 2025

SovEcon’s first estimate for Ukraine’s 2025 wheat crop is 21.1 MMT, slightly below the 2024 forecast of 21.8 MMT and the five-year average of 24.2 MMT. This includes a projected winter wheat crop of 20.4 MMT and a spring wheat crop of 0.7 MMT. The winter wheat yield is expected to be above average at 4.25 metric tons per hectare (mt/ha), aided by favorable October rains that replenished soil moisture in major growing regions.