SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has reduced its 2024/25 export forecasts for Russian wheat, corn, and barley due to a smaller crop size and rising domestic feed demand. Despite the revisions, Russia's wheat exports continue at a strong pace, supported by high supply levels.

The wheat export forecast for the 2024/25 season has been lowered to 47.6 million metric tons (MMT), down from 48.1 MMT. Corn exports are now estimated at 2.2 MMT, compared to 2.4 MMT previously, and barley exports have been revised to 2.4 MMT, down from 2.8 MMT. Total exports of grains, pulses, and processed products are forecast at 55.4 MMT, down from 56.5 MMT.

The reduction in the wheat export forecast reflects a slight decrease in crop size and an anticipated increase in domestic feed demand. Feed wheat is expected to increasingly replace barley and corn in livestock feed rations.

Despite these reductions, SovEcon is not yet prepared to significantly lower its export estimates. Reports of sluggish demand have not slowed Russia’s wheat exports, which continue at a fast pace. In July-September 2024, the first three months of the season, Russia shipped 14.4 MMT of wheat—just below the record 14.7 MMT shipped during the same period in 2023. Wheat supply this season remains at historically high levels, driven by substantial carryover stocks. Exporters continue to actively contract wheat and are operating with lower margins compared to previous seasons.