SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has raised its Russian wheat crop forecast by 0.2 million metric tons (mmt) to 85.4 mmt due to improved prospects in Siberia and the Urals. The barley crop is now estimated at 18.7 mmt, up from 18.0 mmt in July, while the corn forecast has been lowered to 13.4 mmt from 14.3 mmt. The overall grain and pulse production estimate remains unchanged at 130.5 mmt.

The wheat forecast was revised upward as yields in Siberia and the Urals are expected to approach record levels thanks to favorable weather.

The barley estimate was raised following Rosstat’s publication of higher planted area: 7.3 million hectares, compared with SovEcon’s earlier estimate of 6.9 million hectares.

The corn forecast was cut due to unfavorable weather in the South, though the outlook in the Central region remains positive.

“Yields in non-southern regions continue to confirm our optimistic expectations. However, while good crops may offset losses in the South, it will take time to deliver that wheat to Azov and Black Sea ports, complicating Russia’s export program over the next few months — often the key period of the season,” said Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon.