A new trade framework between Washington and Beijing has reignited optimism across global grain markets. The agreement—anchored by China’s pledge to buy 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans annually—has lifted prices and confidence among exporters. Corn and wheat are also poised to benefit, signaling a long-awaited thaw in one of the world’s most influential agricultural trade relationships.

The world’s two largest economies have moved to ease trade tensions with a landmark framework agreement announced on October 30, 2025, following a high-level meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea. The deal—centering on agricultural cooperation, tariff suspensions, and guaranteed purchase volumes—has immediately lifted sentiment across global grain markets, particularly for U.S. exporters who have faced months of uncertainty.

Under the agreement, China pledged to purchase at least 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans during the final two months of 2025, followed by no less than 25 million tons annually between 2026 and 2028.

This marks a significant turnaround after months of halted buying amid rising tariffs and retaliatory measures earlier this year. The state-owned trader COFCO has already resumed activity, securing initial cargoes totaling roughly 180,000 tons for December–January shipment, along with an additional 250,000 tons sourced from the U.S. Gulf and Pacific Northwest ports.

Beyond soybeans, the framework covers a wide range of U.S. agricultural exports. Beijing will suspend retaliatory tariffs on corn, wheat, sorghum, cotton, pork, beef, dairy, and poultry—products that had faced duties of 10–34% since March 2025.

SOYBEANS LEAD MARKET RALLY

Market reactions were swift. CBOT soybean futures initially jumped to $11.07 per bushel, the highest level in over a year, before settling with modest gains on profit-taking. Corn and wheat followed suit, posting weekly increases of 1.8% and 4.2%, respectively, as traders priced in potential spillover demand from the soybean sector.

Analysts view the deal as a crucial step toward restoring balance in the trade relationship. U.S. soybean exports to China had fallen sharply in 2025—just 218 million bushels from January to August, compared with nearly 1 billion bushels in the same period a year earlier—largely due to Beijing’s pivot toward Brazilian supplies. With this new framework, total U.S. soybean shipments to China could rebound to 18.2 million tons by year-end, although still below historical highs.

Projections suggest that U.S. soy exports could rise 20–25% in the 2025/26 marketing year, potentially reducing domestic ending stocks by up to 300 million bushels and firming farm-gate prices.

CORN AND WHEAT SEE INDIRECT GAINS

The removal of tariffs also restores competitiveness for U.S. corn and wheat. Corn exporters are expected to recapture share in China’s feed grain imports, supported by provisions that encourage sorghum purchases. Wheat exporters, meanwhile, could benefit from renewed Chinese interest, particularly if adverse weather in the Black Sea region tightens global supply.

Before the deal, total U.S. agricultural exports to China for 2025 were projected at around $17 billion. That figure could now exceed $22 billion, depending on implementation speed and follow-through.

CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM AMID COMPETITION

If fully realized, China’s annual commitment of 25 million tons of soybeans could help stabilize CBOT soybean prices between $10.80 and $11.20 per bushel through 2026. Yet analysts remain cautious. Brazil’s record 2025/26 soybean crop—forecast at more than 178 million tons—will maintain strong competition, while La Niña weather patterns may disrupt South American harvests, indirectly favoring U.S. suppliers.

Still, the framework marks a symbolic and practical shift after years of volatility. Although China’s import dependence remains heavily skewed toward Brazil—now accounting for over 70% of its soybean intake—the new deal offers a lifeline for U.S. farmers seeking market stability.

As U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized, the agreement “positions American farmers to prosper in the years to come.” For global grain trade, it signals not just renewed commerce between two giants, but a tentative step toward rebuilding trust in the world’s most consequential agricultural corridor.