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IGC reports falling global grain stocks despite record production in 2024/25

23 September 20242 min reading

In its latest grain market report, released on September 18, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts record global grain production and consumption for the 2024/25 season. The Council projects ending grain stocks at 581 million tons, marking the lowest level in the past decade.

According to the IGC report, global grain production for the 2024/25 season is expected to reach 2.315 billion tons, while consumption is forecasted at 2.325 billion tons. “A modest increase in total global grain production for 2024/25, to a record 2.315 billion tons, reflects anticipated gains in sorghum, wheat, oats, and barley output. Although production is up year-on-year, total grain availability will slightly decline due to reduced opening stocks. A small rise in consumption, driven by industrial use, is expected to set a new peak of 2.325 billion tons. World stocks are projected to fall to a 10-year low of 581 million tons, with the sharpest year-on-year declines in wheat and maize. Reduced import demand in Asia and Europe is reflected in a forecasted 7% drop in global trade, to 421 million tons,” the report stated. Global grain trade is expected to fall to its lowest level since the 2020/21 season, when 396 million tons were traded.

The IGC also revised down its global wheat production forecast for 2024/25 by 1 million tons from the previous month to 798 million tons. Despite this adjustment, it still represents a 3-million-ton (0.4%) increase from last year. The Council lowered its forecast for EU wheat production by 2.6 million tons, but this is partially offset by a 1.7-million-ton increase in Australia's outlook.

Similarly, the IGC reduced its global maize production forecast for 2024/25 by 2 million tons, bringing the estimate to 1.224 billion tons—a 3-million-ton decrease compared to last year.

For soybeans, the IGC projects global production to reach 419 million tons, up 7% from the previous season. Soybean consumption is expected to hit a record 406 million tons, with trade forecasted to rise for the third consecutive year to 178 million tons.

Global rice production is forecast to rise by 1% to 528 million tons, supported by larger harvests in Asia. The Council also increased its rice trade forecast to 54 million tons, driven by potential purchases from African importers.

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