Driven by rising needs in Egypt, China, and Southeast Asia, global wheat trade is set to climb to the third-highest level on record. Meanwhile, exporters like Russia and the EU are entering a fierce battle for market share.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its latest Grain: World Markets and Trade report, offering an optimistic outlook for the global wheat market in the 2025/26 season. According to the May report, global wheat production is forecast to reach 808.5 million tons, marking an increase of 8.8 million tons from the previous year.

The global wheat market is expected to see a positive trend in the 2025/26 season, with larger supplies, increased consumption, and a modest rise in ending stocks. Total wheat supplies are projected to grow by 4.9 million tons, reaching 1,073.7 million tons. This increase is driven by a record-high production forecast of 808.5 million tons, which more than offsets the decline in beginning stocks. Higher output is anticipated in several key producing countries—including the European Union, India, the United Kingdom, China, Argentina, Russia, and Canada—which is expected to outweigh production declines in Kazakhstan, Australia, Pakistan, and the United States.

The European Union is set to post the largest year-on-year gain, with output expected to rebound by 13.9 million tons. This recovery follows a challenging season impacted by adverse weather, which previously hindered both yields and grain quality. Russia's wheat yields are projected to improve, resulting in a 2% increase in production, while Ukraine faces a 2% drop due to unfavorable planting conditions and ongoing conflict.

Kazakhstan is expected to experience a return to trend yields, leading to a smaller crop. Meanwhile, Canada is on track for its second-largest wheat harvest ever. In contrast, the U.S. production forecast has been revised downward to 52.3 million tons due to declining acreage. Argentina is expected to benefit from normal weather, while Australia may see a drop in production due to reduced harvested area and weaker yields.

WHEAT CONSUMPTION ON THE RISE

Global wheat consumption is projected to increase to 804.7 million tons, up 9.1 million tons from last year. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) usage is forecast to grow by 1%, with India driving much of this increase on the back of record production and ample domestic supply. Pakistan’s FSI consumption is also anticipated to rise, aligned with its growing population.

Feed and residual use is expected to grow marginally, reflecting ongoing variability driven by feed grain prices, quality of harvests, and overall supply dynamics. This category also accounts for untracked losses within the marketing system.

STOCK DYNAMICS

World ending stocks for 2025/26 are forecasted at 265.7 million tons, slightly higher by 0.5 million tons from the previous year. The largest stock reductions are anticipated in China and Pakistan, whereas India, the United States, and the EU are expected to see the most significant stockpile increases. China’s wheat reserves are expected to decline by 3 million tons but will still constitute nearly half of the world’s wheat stocks.

Among major exporters, Kazakhstan is forecast to see the sharpest stock decline due to lower production and only a modest drop in exports. Pakistan’s ending stocks are projected to fall by 25% as a result of reduced production and policy shifts limiting state-held reserves. Russia’s stocks may dip slightly, while the United States is forecast to rebuild its reserves amid lower exports. Overall, stockpiles among major exporters are expected to increase, led by a significant rise in the EU.

TRADE REBOUNDS AS DEMAND SHIFTS

Global wheat trade is forecast to rebound, rising 6 percent to 214.2 million tons, the third highest

level on record. Egypt is set to remain the world’s top importer, with imports projected at 13 million tons, supporting its longstanding bread subsidy program. Private sector demand and re-exports of wheat flour, particularly to neighboring countries like Sudan, also contribute to Egypt’s continued prominence.

China is expected to nearly double its wheat imports from the previous year, although still below levels seen two years ago. Southeast Asian countries, led by Indonesia and the Philippines, are also poised for higher imports amid increasing demand for both food and feed. Pakistan will significantly ramp up its wheat imports due to a sharp production drop and the discontinuation of its minimum support price program, which has resulted in reduced planted area.

On the export side, the European Union is expected to record the largest year-on-year growth among major exporters, with exports rising by 7.5 million tons to reach 34.0 million tons. Russia is forecasted to maintain its position as the world’s top wheat exporter, increasing shipments to 45.0 million tons, up from 43.5 million tons in 2024/25.Exports from Argentina and Ukraine are also projected to increase, while those from Australia, Kazakhstan, and the United States are expected to decline.

TURKEY MAINTAINS FLOUR EXPORT LEADERSHIP

Turkey and Kazakhstan will continue to be major exporters of wheat flour in 2025/26. Turkey is the largest exporter of wheat flour in the world with an inward processing regime that allows for dutyfree imports of wheat grain that are processed into flour and re-exported. Despite expected growth in flour exports, Turkish exports of durum wheat grain will likely decline with more competition from Canada. Overall, Turkey exports are forecast flat from the prior year. Kazakhstan exports are forecast down 20 percent on lower domestic production. Kazakhstan is a major supplier of both wheat grain and wheat flour to Central Asia, including Uzbekistan and Afghanistan.