According to the International Grains Council’s (IGC) October Grain Market report, global grain production is expected to hit a record 2,315 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Despite this, the IGC warns of tightening stocks in wheat and maize, as well as reduced trade volumes.
The IGC forecasts global grain production for the 2024/25 season at 2,315 million tons, marking a record high despite localized drought conditions affecting wheat prospects in Australia and Argentina. While the outlook for the European Union and Russia has been downgraded, offsetting increases in production in Kazakhstan (wheat) and Turkey (barley) have kept the global grain crop estimate stable month-on-month (m/m).
Global grain consumption is projected to rise to 2,328 million tons, up by 3 million tons from previous estimates, driven largely by increased feed demand. Carryover stocks are expected to increase by 3 million tons m/m, reaching 584 million tons, thanks to higher opening inventories. However, global trade is expected to decline by 2 million tons, with reductions in imports of wheat, maize, and barley, particularly in China, Turkey, and Iran.

SOYBEAN AND RICE OUTPUT TO HIT NEW HIGHS
Global soybean production for 2024/25 is projected to reach a new peak, up 7% year-on-year (y/y), primarily due to favorable conditions in South America. The IGC raised its forecast for soybean output by 2 million tons m/m, with end-season inventories also expected to increase by 4 million tons. Soybean trade is projected to grow by 1%, driven by stronger demand from Africa and Asia.
Rice production is expected to hit a record 531 million tons in 2024/25, up by 3 million tons m/m, supported by an improved outlook for India. Global trade in rice is forecast to increase by 1 million tons to 54 million tons, with consumption and stocks also expected to rise. Looser export restrictions from India on non-basmati white rice are likely to fuel higher global import demand, especially in Africa.
GRAIN STOCKS SET TO SHRINK TO 10-SEASON LOW
Despite a modest decline in maize production, overall grain output is set to reach a record high, largely supported by growth in other grain sectors. Maize and wheat stocks are expected to decline, with maize inventories down by 7 million tons and wheat by 6 million tons, contributing to a 10-season low in global carryover stocks.
Global wheat production is forecast to be the second-largest on record, with notable increases in output from South Asia (India and Pakistan) and parts of the Near East (Iraq and Iran). However, reduced import demand and tighter supplies may impact trade levels.
The outlook for global dry pea production is positive, marking the third consecutive year of growth (+3%), driven by larger harvests in Canada and the EU. Despite increased availability, global pea stocks are expected to tighten (-6%), with a 12% decline in trade forecast for 2025, primarily due to reduced demand from India.