The yields of grain have significantly increased over the last 100 years due to advancements in agricultural practices, technology, and plant breeding. These improvements have led to higher crop productivity and increased grain production worldwide. The Green Revolution, which began in the mid-20th century, played a crucial role in increasing grain yields through the introduction of high-yielding crop varieties, synthetic fertilizers, and irrigation techniques. 

Before the Green Revolution, average grain yields were relatively low, and farmers faced challenges in meeting the growing demand for food. However, with the adoption of improved agricultural techniques, such as the use of hybrid seeds, mechanization, and the application of fertilizers and pesticides, grain production has seen a significant boost.For example, in the United States, wheat yields have more than tripled since the early 1900s. Similarly, maize yields have increased by more than fourfold during the same period. These improvements are primarily attributed to the development and adoption of high-yielding varieties, better crop management practices, and improved infrastructure.

Globally, grain yields have also shown a remarkable increase. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), global cereal production per hectare has more than doubled since the 1960s. This increase has helped meet the growing demand for food as the global population has risen.

It is important to note that regional variations exist in terms of yield improvements, as factors such as climate, soil conditions, access to technology, and socio-economic factors can influence agricultural productivity differently in different parts of the world. Overall, advancements in agricultural practices have contributed to significant increases in grain yields over the past century, ensuring food security and meeting the demands of a growing global population.

Modern agriculture is heavily dependent on weather conditions for successful crop production. Weather factors such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, and sunlight play a crucial role in determining crop growth, development, and overall yield. Here are some ways in which modern agriculture relies on weather:

1. Planting and harvesting: Farmers need to consider weather conditions when deciding the optimal time for planting and harvesting crops. Different crops have specific temperature and moisture requirements for germination, growth, and maturation. Farmers need to time their planting activities based on weather forecasts to ensure favorable conditions for crop establishment.

2. Irrigation management: Weather patterns influence the availability of water resources for irrigation. Farmers need to monitor rainfall patterns and adjust irrigation schedules accordingly. In regions with limited rainfall, farmers rely on weather forecasts to plan irrigation activities and ensure adequate water supply for crop growth.

3. Pest and disease management: Weather conditions can influence the prevalence and severity of pests and diseases. Certain pests thrive under specific temperature and humidity conditions, while diseases may spread more rapidly during periods of high moisture. Farmers need to monitor weather conditions to anticipate pest and disease outbreaks and implement appropriate control measures.

4. Nutrient management: Weather conditions affect nutrient availability in the soil. Rainfall patterns can leach nutrients from the soil, requiring farmers to adjust fertilizer application rates. Similarly, temperature and moisture levels impact nutrient uptake by plants. By monitoring weather conditions, farmers can optimize nutrient management practices to ensure optimal crop growth.

5. Extreme weather events: Modern agriculture is vulnerable to extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, and storms. These events can cause significant crop losses and damage agricultural infrastructure. Farmers need to prepare for and mitigate the impacts of such events by implementing strategies like crop diversification, water management systems, and adopting climate-resilient farming practices.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate phenomenon that occurs in the Pacific Ocean and has far-reaching effects on weather patterns around the globe. ENSO is characterized by two phases: El Niño and La Niña, which alternate every few years. These phases have significant implications for agriculture, as they can lead to extreme weather events and disrupt crop production.

El Niño is associated with warmer sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, resulting in altered atmospheric circulation patterns. This leads to changes in rainfall patterns, temperature distribution, and wind patterns, which can have both positive and negative impacts on agriculture.

One of the primary consequences of El Niño is the occurrence of droughts in some regions. Reduced rainfall during this phase can lead to water scarcity, affecting irrigation systems and reducing soil moisture content. This, in turn, affects crop growth and productivity. Droughts can also increase the risk of wildfires, further damaging agricultural lands and reducing yields.

On the other hand, El Niño can bring excessive rainfall to other regions, leading to flooding and waterlogging. These conditions are detrimental to crops, as they can cause root damage, nutrient leaching, and increased susceptibility to diseases and pests. Excessive rainfall can also lead to soil erosion, which degrades soil quality and reduces its ability to support healthy plant growth.

La Niña, the opposite phase of ENSO, is characterized by cooler sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This phase often brings above-average rainfall to some regions while causing droughts in others. While La Niña can alleviate drought conditions in previously affected areas, it can also lead to excessive rainfall and flooding in regions that were already experiencing wet conditions.

El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and episodes usually last nine to 12 months. El Niño events are typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia. In contrast, El Niño can also cause severe droughts over Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.

During the Boreal summer, El Niño’s warm water can fuel hurricanes in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean, while it hinders hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin. Now the warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean can have significant impacts on global weather, and when sea surface temperature anomalies reach 0.5°C or warmer than what is typical, an El Niño is considered to be underway.

The impacts of ENSO on agriculture are not limited to changes in precipitation patterns. Temperature variations associated with ENSO can also affect crop growth and development. Warmer temperatures during El Niño can accelerate plant maturity, resulting in shorter growing seasons and reduced yields. Conversely, cooler temperatures during La Niña can delay crop development, potentially affecting harvest timing and quality.

The effects of ENSO on agriculture are not uniform across the globe. Different regions experience varying degrees of impact depending on their geographical location and prevailing weather patterns. For instance, the impacts of ENSO on agriculture in South America are different from those in Southeast Asia or Africa.

To mitigate the impacts of ENSO on agriculture, farmers and policymakers need to adopt climate-smart agricultural practices. These include implementing efficient irrigation systems, practicing water conservation techniques, adopting drought-resistant crop varieties, and diversifying crops to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather events.

more, improved weather forecasting and early warning systems can help farmers prepare for and adapt to changing conditions associated with ENSO. Timely information on expected rainfall patterns, temperature variations, and the likelihood of extreme weather events can enable farmers to make informed decisions regarding planting dates, crop selection, and resource management.

According to WMO, ENSO would have the opposite impacts on weather and climate patterns in many regions of the to world the long-running La Niña and would likely fuel higher global temperatures. We just had the eight warmest years on record, even though we had a cooling La Niña for the past three years and this acted as a temporary brake on global temperature increase. The development of an El Niño will most likely lead to a new spike in global heating and increase the chance of breaking temperature records, said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.

According to WMO’s State of the Global Climate reports, 2016 is the warmest year on record because of the “double whammy” of a very powerful El Niño event and human-induced warming from greenhouse gases. The effect on global temperatures usually plays out in the year after its development and so will likely be most apparent in 2024.

ENSO is a climate phenomenon that significantly affects agriculture worldwide. Understanding the impacts of ENSO on agriculture is crucial for developing strategies to adapt to and mitigate these effects, ensuring food security in the face of a changing climate. Modern agriculture relies on accurate weather information to make informed decisions regarding planting, irrigation, pest management, nutrient application, and mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events. Understanding and adapting to weather conditions is essential for optimizing crop production and ensuring food security. Earlier the BBC wrote that scientists have just announced that an El Niño weather pattern has taken hold and will strengthen through to the end of this year and the first months of 2024. And they are warning there is a good chance that it could be a particularly strong El Niño this year.

If that turns out to be the case, then the impacts could be significant. Scientists have already warned that with rising emissions and a strong El Niño there is a 66% chance the world will break through a key 1.5C global warming limit at least one year between now and 2027. But it could also bring damaging extreme weather such as heavy rainfall and flooding to communities in the US and elsewhere this winter. So how ENSO might affect global grain production? Platts collected main statements and expectations for the 2023/24 

Lower than normal showers are expected over the next two weeks across Australia, the BOM said. Most parts of Western Australia, South Australia, Queensland, and New South Wales are likely to see extremely warm weather, the BOM said. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics has forecast Australia’s marketing year 2023-24 (October-September) wheat harvest around 26.2 million mt, down 34% on the year, which is expected to weigh on exports.

Malaysia is expected to experience “weak” El Nino starting June, the country’s minister for Natural Resources, Environment and Climate Change, Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad said. A strong El Nino could reduce palm oil production in 2024 by about 20% as seen during the last El Nino year in 2016, the government regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board had said. In Indonesia, the world’s largest vegetable oil exporter, drier weather caused by the El Nino phenomenon could threaten harvests and result in forest fires, the head of its weather agency said. El Nino is likely to affect most of Indonesia and cause drought on the main islands of Indonesia, decreasing the availability of ground water for irrigation and agriculture, Dwikorita Karnawati, head of BMKG, Indonesia’s meteorology, climate and geophysics agency.

Unseasonal rains lash over China’s key winter growing region. This also coincided with harvest window, hurting crop yield and quality.

Most of Europe, especially France and Germany, are expected to witness below-normal showers over the next two weeks, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.Temperatures are likely to rise during the weeks, the center said.

Dry weather remained entrenched across much of the Midwest and Northeast, leading to topsoil moisture shortages and rapidly developing drought, the US Department of Agriculture said in a weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin

Near complete dryness prevailed throughout the country’s main agricultural districts, with exception for southeastern Buenos Aires. Weekly temperatures averaging above normal favored maturing late planted summer crops.

Showers benefited wheat and late-developing corn in key southern production areas. Rainfall totaled 10-50 mm in Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana, extending eastward into Sao Paulo and westward into Paraguay.

According to BBC’s data, the effects of this could also reverberate for some time to come – a recent study by researchers at Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire, estimates that an El Niño starting in 2023 could cost the global economy as much as $3.4tn over the following five years. And they say that following two previous very strong El Niño events in 1982-83 and 1997-98, the US gross domestic product was 3% lower half a decade later than it otherwise would have been. If an event of a similar magnitude was to happen today, it could cost the US economy $699bn, they calculated. It’s difficult to imagine how much will it cost to global economy in such a sensitive time when after COVID world civilization faced with another -even more dangerous disaster – Russia.