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Brazil estimates over 300 mln tons in grain production for 2022-2023

07 February 20233 min reading

Brazilian grain production will reach 310.9 million tons in the 2022-2023 season, a growth of 14.5 percent compared to the previous period, according to the estimate released by the state-run National Supply Company (CONAB).

CONAB expects the production of soybeans, Brazil’s main export, which is nearing the end of its planting season, to total 152.7 million tons, 22.2 percent higher than in 2021-2022. Regarding the three annual harvests of corn, the total is projected to be 125.06 million tons, an increase of 10.5 percent in relation to the last cycle. Meanwhile, CONAB forecasts a 9.3 percent reduction in the cultivated area of rice, estimated at 1.5 million hectares, with production of 10.4 million tons. In addition, the total area under bean cultivation is expected to decrease 1.8 percent, to 2.96 million tons, CONAB said.

The wheat harvest, which has been completed, will reach a new record, estimated at 9.8 million tons, 27.2 percent higher than the previous harvest.

BRAZIL SETS RECORD WHEAT EXPORTS

Brazil is poised to register record wheat shipments for January as local suppliers continue to fill the void left by major exporters Russia and Ukraine because of the ongoing war, industry sources told Reuters. The combination of a bumper harvest and production hiccups in Argentina due to a drought also bolstered Brazilian exporters, particularly in Rio Grande do Sul, the country’s biggest wheat producer, they said.

Based on shipping schedules, the National Association of Cereal Exporters (Anec) projected wheat exports at 803,800 tons for January. If confirmed, the volume will represent a new historic high for the month, compared to the previous record of 695,900 tons registered in January 2022, according to Anec data. “Brazil is a big producer and exporter of grains. As you earn credibility from the soybean trade, you begin to expand to other products,” Anec Director-General Sergio Mendes told Reuters. According to Mendes, grain importers see Brazil as a reliable supplier, and this favors exporters.

Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Sudan buy around 50 percent of Brazilian wheat exports. Vietnam is also a prominent buyer, Mendes noted. “The maintenance of shipments to these countries with whom we maintain good commercial relations leads to the belief that things are progressing,” Mendes said about Brazil’s inroads in global markets.

StoneX, a consultancy, projects Brazilian shipments of 3 million tons of wheat for the 2022/23 season, from August 2022 to July this year, stable from the previous cycle’s record. Brazil’s growing wheat exports, however, still pale in comparison to Ukraine’s 13 million ton export estimated by United States Department of Agriculture for the 2022/2023 season.


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