Wheat production in Turkey is projected to fall significantly in 2025, while flour exports continue to decline amid rising costs and market uncertainties. Experts call for urgent measures to sustain the sector’s global competitiveness.

The 10th International Grain Conference: Towards the 2025 Harvest in Turkey and the World, organized by the Turkish Grain Suppliers Association (HUBUDER), highlighted critical challenges in agriculture and food security. Held in Ankara, the event brought together industry leaders from Turkey and across the globe to address key issues including production planning, logistics infrastructure, sustainable farming, and grain supply security.

AGRICULTURE AS STRATEGIC AS DEFENSE

In his opening remarks, HUBUDER Chairman Gürsel Erbap highlighted that the global population is projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, driving a dramatic surge in food demand. He noted that challenges like wars, drought, migration, unemployment, and climate change threaten not only production but also national sovereignty. “Agriculture has become as strategic as energy and defense,” Erbap emphasized, calling for greater collaboration between public and private sectors to address these challenges.

TURKISH FLOUR EXPORT MARKETS AT RISK, SUPPORT MECHANISMS ESSENTIAL

Erbap shared critical data on Turkey’s flour export performance. In 2023, Turkey exported 3.66 million tons of flour, generating $1.5 billion in revenue. However, in 2024, exports dropped to 3 million tons and $1.16 billion—a 17% decline in volume and 20% in value. The first four months of 2025 saw flour exports plummet by 40% and pasta exports by 7-8% compared to previous years. Erbap warned that this trend threatens the sustainability of producers and manufacturers, noting, “Today, a ton of bran costs 12,000 TL ($307), while wheat is 9,000 TL ($230). This signals that businesses are scaling back or grinding to a halt. Suppliers can barely trade.” He stressed the need to protect flour export markets built through years of effort and acknowledged past support from the Turkish Grain Board (TMO), urging stronger partnerships moving forward.

FUNCTION, NOT PRICE, DRIVES COMPETITION

Tayfun Kılıç, Deputy Director General of Exports at the  Turkish Ministry of Trade, reported that annual exports of grain-based products like flour, pasta, bulgur, and biscuits are nearing $4.5 billion. He emphasized that sustainability, traceability, and functional products will further boost this success. “The difference today isn’t price—it’s function. We’re entering an era where competition is won through differentiation, not just cost. Together, we’ll elevate Turkey’s agricultural potential,” Kılıç said.

TUSAF PRESIDENT ÇAKMAK: DATA GAPS POSE MAJOR CHALLENGE

Mesut Çakmak, newly elected President of the Turkish Flour Industrialists’ Federation (TUSAF), has issued a sobering outlook for Turkey’s wheat production this year, citing significant yield losses in the Southeastern and Çukurova regions. He projected that national wheat output will decline from 20.8 million tons in 2024 to approximately 18.5 million tons in 2025. Çakmak also reflected on the impact of last year’s wheat import restrictions, noting that the policy had caused Turkey to lose ground in key flour export markets. However, he expressed optimism about a market recovery beginning in July or August.

One of the most pressing challenges facing the sector, according to Çakmak, is the lack of reliable, up-to-date data. He announced that TUSAF is launching an initiative to build a comprehensive sectoral database to address this issue. “We currently lack accurate data on the number of flour mills in Turkey, their production capacities, and their operational status,” Çakmak stated. “We are initiating efforts to fill this information gap and support more informed decision-making across the industry.”

ULUSOY: TURKEY REACHES EVERY FLOUR MARKET

Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy, Chairman of Ulusoy Flour and IAOM Eurasia, has reaffirmed Turkey’s position as a resilient leader in global flour exports, expressing confidence in the country’s ability to meet its targets despite a difficult year. “We’re maintaining our 3-million-ton export target for 2025,” Ulusoy stated. “With the continued support of our stakeholders and suppliers, I am confident that we will achieve it.” Ulusoy highlighted Turkey’s exceptional track record in global markets, noting that the country has been the world’s top flour exporter for 11 consecutive years. He credited this success to Turkey’s ability to diversify its markets and adapt to shifting global dynamics. “Markets have changed, but Turkey has successfully reached every corner of global flour demand — a remarkable achievement,” he said. 

FEED SECTOR TO SHAPE GRAIN MARKETS

İsmail Kemaloğlu, founder of IK Tarım Üssü (IK Agricultural Hub)and a prominent agricultural policy expert, has forecast a 15% decline in Turkey’s wheat yield compared to last year. He highlighted a key concern for the upcoming harvest: the private sector is entering the season with virtually no stocks, while the state maintains a reserve of approximately 3 million tons. “High financing and storage costs will discourage long-term stockpiling by the private sector,” Kemaloğlu explained. “Farmers, on the other hand, are likely to withhold high-quality wheat in hopes of securing better market prices.” Looking ahead, Kemaloğlu emphasized a shift in market dynamics, asserting that the feed and livestock sectors—rather than flour—will increasingly drive the grain market. He pointed to the current pricing imbalance, noting, “Bran prices have already surpassed wheat prices.” He also drew attention to the growing challenges facing Turkey’s feed industry, which produces 30 million tons annually, with half of that volume relying on grain-based inputs. “Rising logistics and transportation costs are adding further pressure to the sector,” he added.

BLACKSEA GRAIN OUTLOOK

Dmitry Rylko, Director of the Moscow-based Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), has provided an in-depth assessment of the Black Sea grain market, offering projections for the 2025/26 season. Rylko warned of severe drought and frost conditions affecting key growing regions—including southern Ukraine, Russia’s Rostov Oblast, and southern Volgograd—that pose risks to wheat development. “In Rostov, some fields are already heading, signaling unusually early crop growth,” he noted. “May rains could help mitigate part of the damage.” 

IKAR’s forecast places Russia’s wheat production at 83.8 million tons, with exports expected to reach 41.3 million tons. However, ending stocks are projected to decline to 15.3 million tons, reflecting tighter supply conditions. In Ukraine, wheat production is expected to reach 22.5 million tons, with 17 million tons destined for export. Corn output is estimated at 28.5 million tons, with 25 million tons expected to be shipped abroad.

Rylko also emphasized the continued growth in Russia’s flour exports, which reached 1.25 million tons in the 2023/24 marketing year, and 562,000 tons between August and March of the current season. However, he cautioned that Russia’s wheat export tax policy could disrupt the balance between raw grain and processed flour exports. He further highlighted Egypt’s surge in flour exports, rising from 226,000 tons in 2022 to 860,000 tons in 2024, reflecting the broader shifts in global flour trade dynamics.

MULTIFACETED RISKS IN GLOBAL GRAIN MARKETS

Monika Tothova, Senior Economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), has issued a stark warning about the growing complexity of risks facing the global grain markets, with implications for food security, trade stability, and economic resilience. “The global economy remains fragile,” Tothova said, “with rising policy uncertainty, adverse trade policy changes, ongoing geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-driven disasters continuing to pressure growth.” She pointed to a notable surge in trade restrictions, noting that new trade measures introduced in 2024 are five times higher than pre-pandemic levels, indicating a sharp acceleration in global protectionism. Tothova also highlighted continued volatility in fertilizer markets, closely linked to energy price fluctuations, which are reducing farmers’ access to essential inputs and impacting crop yields worldwide. Calling for urgent action, Tothova stressed that international cooperation is more vital than ever in the face of overlapping macroeconomic vulnerabilities, climate risks, protectionist trends, and geopolitical instability.

HUBUDER sets an example: Tree donations replace plaques

Demonstrating environmental responsibility, the Turkish Grain Suppliers Association (HUBUDER) has introduced an exemplary practice by replacing traditional plaques with tree donations at its conferences. This meaningful initiative was launched at the recent conference held in Ankara. Instead of presenting plaques to attendees, HUBUDER made tree donations on their behalf. Gürsel Erbap, Chairman of HUBUDER’s Board, along with other board members, visited the Miller Magazine booth. During the visit, the tree donation certificate was presented to Mustafa Yağmurlu, Editor-in-Chief of BBM Magazine, and Namık Kemal Parlak, Editor-in-Chief of Miller Magazine.