Vivian Iroanya
Senior Price Reporter
S&P Global Platts

Since the onset of the marketing year in July, the Black Sea wheat market has faced significant challenges - delayed harvests, slow exports, and logistical issues have hindered price reductions compared to previous seasons. In this article, we explore pricing dynamics, fluctuations in demand, and quality concerns, alongside export forecasts and production estimates in the marketing year 2025 – 2026. 

Since the beginning of the marketing year in July, the Black Sea wheat market has faced challenges in reducing prices compared to previous seasons. This is largely due to delayed harvests, sluggish exports, and logistical difficulties. The Platts Milling Wheat Marker, which was launched in June, is calculated based on the most competitive FOB daily end-of-day value from the Black Sea, the largest wheat export region, including 12.5% Russian wheat, Ukrainian wheat 11.5%, and Constanta – Varna- Burgas (CVB) 12.5% protein.

Since the official start of the wheat harvest in July, the Milling Wheat Marker has been aligned with the price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein, which has been the most competitive price in the region. From July to late August, the average price was $235/mt, compared to $220.5/mt during the same period last year, when there was an oversupply and record exports.

However, since August 13, prices have significantly decreased, falling from $242 to $233/mt by the end of August. This decline has been driven by weaker demand and improved yields in key producing areas. Buyers have expressed expectations for further price drops, with some indicating they will hold off on purchases until Russian wheat prices reach the low $220s/mt. One buyer remarked, “If Russia does not export big volumes soon, they will be forced to sell cheaply in the new year.”

Platts forecasts that Russia’s wheat exports in August will reach 4 million mt, with total exports since July at 5.2 million mt, a decrease from last season’s 8.5 million mt. For the marketing year 2025-2026, exports are projected to increase to 43 million mt, up from 41.4 million mt last season, with production expected to rise to 83.2 million mt, compared to 81.6 million mt last year. While yields are good, quality remains inconsistent, with reports of low falling numbers and issues with sprouted wheat. As of August 26, Russia had harvested 60% of its projected wheat areas, with average yields increasing to 3.8 mt per hectare from 3.5 last year. The improving yields may lead to an upward revision of wheat production estimates for 2025/2026 in Platts’ September report.

The Milling Wheat Marker also indicated a narrow spread of just $3/mt between Russian 12.5% wheat and Ukrainian 11.5% wheat in August, compared to July’s $6.5/mt. Since July, Ukrainian wheat exports have included shipments to Egypt (462,000 mt), Indonesia (323,000 mt), Spain (253,000 mt), Vietnam (125,000 mt), and Algeria (114,000 mt), totaling 2.2 million mt, which is down from last year’s pace of 3.4 million mt due to harvest delays. Some importers in Egypt have noted quality inconsistencies, with this season’s wheat exhibiting higher protein and gluten content but lower falling numbers than last year, necessitating blending to achieve average quality. This variability has complicated distribution and made it difficult to satisfy local customers due to inconsistencies in the truckloads received. Platts forecasts Ukrainian wheat exports to reach 15.5 million mt, with production at 22.8 million mt for the 2025 – 2026 season. This is slightly lower than last season’s exports of 15.8 million mt and production of 23.3 million mt. 

Buyers have reported similar quality concerns with CVB wheat, which some wheat displaying below 160 W content, priced at a $2/mt or more discount to the standard 180 W content. The latter was priced at a premium of $4/mt to the Milling Wheat Marker, while the 11.5% CVB wheat was priced at a premium of $1/mt.Romania has exported 1.7 million mt of wheat since July, with key destinations including Saudi Arabia (344,000 mt), Nigeria (178,000 mt), Egypt (133,000 mt), Jordan (117,000 mt), Djibouti (102,000 mt), and Morocco (95,000 mt). 

France has gained traction in the Middle East, particularly in Egypt, which has pressured Black Sea prices to decrease. Since the start of the marketing year in July, the port of Rouen in France has exported 1.48 million mt of grain, including over 600,000 mt of soft wheat, primarily to Morocco (234,000 mt), Egypt (98,000 mt), Portugal (64,000 mt), and West Africa (103,000 mt). The FOB market was priced at a $6/mt discount to the Milling Wheat Marker in August, indicating strong demand for French wheat amid a good crop and low prices. Platts forecasts EU-27 exports to reach 32.4 million mt, up from 28 million mt last year, with production expected at 137.7 million mt, compared to 120 million mt last year. 

In conclusion, the Black Sea wheat market is currently grappling with a series of challenges that have impacted pricing and export dynamics. Delayed harvests and quality inconsistencies have led to weaker demand and price fluctuations, as indicated by the Platts Milling Wheat Marker. As we look ahead, the forecast for exports remains cautious, with potential adjustments depending on market conditions and buyers’ appetite. The interplay of these factors will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the wheat market in the Black Sea region.