Inna Stepanenko
Chief Analyst ASAP Agri

The Black Sea region has long anchored global wheat trade with its aggressive pricing and geographic advantage — especially in the MENA region. But as weather volatility rises and competitors regroup, the balance is shifting. In this article, we explore how shifting production dynamics and geopolitical tensions are redrawing the trade map in one of the world’s most import-dependent regions.

PRODUCTION: FLAT BLACK SEA CROP FACES RISING GLOBAL COMPETITION

Wheat production in the Black Sea region is expected to remain virtually flat in 2025, with a forecast of 127.5 MMT— only slightly higher than 2024. In contrast, the region’s main global competitors — the U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, and France — are projected to increase their combined wheat production from 166.7 MMT to 170.8 MMT.

This growth is largely driven by France and Argentina, two key competitors of Ukrainian wheat in the MENA region. According to the European Commission, France is set to rebound sharply from last year’s drought-hit crop, with production rising from 26.5 MMT to 32.3 MMT. Argentina’s output is also expected to grow, reaching 20 MMT.

Within the Black Sea, Russia continues to dominate. Despite drought in southern regions, Russian wheat production in 2025 is forecast to increase. The USDA estimates output at 83.5 MMT, up from 81.6 MMT last year. Local analysts are broadly in agreement, with estimates ranging from 83.6 to 84 MMT.

Christina Serebriakova
CEO of ASAP Agri
Broker at Atria Brokers

Ukraine tells a different story. Poor soil moisture during autumn planting, spring frosts, and severe drought and heat during grain filling have all taken a toll on yields. “Based on our crop tour across eight key wheat-producing regions of Ukraine, ASAP Agri forecasts the 2025/26 wheat crop at 21.74 MMT — a 3% decline year-on-year,” said Christina Serebriakova, CEO of ASAP Agri and Briker at Atria Brokers. “This estimate excludes temporarily occupied territories and reflects an average national yield of 4.37 MT/HA, down 3.5% from last season due to adverse weather during key growth stages.”

In Romania, the European Commission maintains a conservative wheat production forecast of 10.4 MMT for 2025 — only slightly above last year. Next door, Bulgaria is also set to improve, with wheat output expected to rise from 6.7 MMT to 7.1 MMT.

So how will this mixed production picture shape export potential for the 2025/26 marketing year?

EXPORTS: BLACK SEA HOLDS GROUND AS FRANCE STAGES A COMEBACK

The Black Sea region remains a key player in global wheat exports, having accounted for nearly half of all shipments in 2023/24. In the upcoming 2025/26 season, its position is expected to remain broadly stable, with exports forecast at 71.9 MMT — up slightly from 2024/25.

But while the Black Sea holds steady, others are advancing. Wheat exports from major competing origins are projected to rise from 89.3 MMT to 94.2 MMT, signaling a tightening race for market share.

The modest gains in Black Sea exports is largely driven by Russia. Local analysts forecast 43.3 MMT in 2025/26 (up from 40.8 MMT in 2024/25). The USDA projects even higher export figure of 46 MMT (but their estimate for 2024/25 is 43.5 MMT). This gap in Russia’s export forecasts could have meaningful price implications if realized.

In turn, Ukraine may reduce wheat export. “ASAP Agri forecasts Ukraine’s actual wheat exports in 2025/26 at 15 MMT, down from 15.9 MMT in 2024/25,” said Serebriakova. “This reflects lower production, as well as the potential impact of EU import quotas and intensifying competition from Russian wheat in Turkey and key Asian markets.” Bulgaria is also likely to ship less wheat this season. In contrast, Romania is on track to boost exports to 7.4 MMT, supported by what could be a record harvest.

Among other key players, France is the standout. After a weak 2024/25 season (3.3 MMT), French wheat exports are expected to more than double to 8.1 MMT in 2025/26. While still below pre-drought levels, this rebound should help France reestablish its presence in core markets across North Africa and the Middle East.

IMPORTS: MENA’S UNWAVERING APPETITE FOR WHEAT

The MENA region remains a cornerstone of global wheat demand. Even in years of flat global consumption, the region consistently imports over 60 MMT, making it a high-stakes battleground for wheat exporters worldwide.

Egypt continues to lead as the world’s largest wheat importer. In 2024/25, Russia maintained its dominant position, supplying the bulk of Egypt’s needs. Ukraine remained present, though with reduced volumes compared to pre-war levels, while Romania and Bulgaria held steady as reliable contributors. Overall, Egypt’s demand is expected to continue being met predominantly by Black Sea origins, with Romania and Bulgaria likely to increase their market share further.

Algeria, on the other hand, has undergone a notable shift. Back in 2020/21, the country relied heavily on French and other EU-origin wheat. However, diplomatic tensions with France triggered a diversification strategy. By 2024/25, Russia, Ukraine, and Bulgaria had expanded their presence, capitalizing on Algeria’s pivot away from traditional suppliers.

Victoria Blazhko
Head of Editorial,
Content and Analytics
at ASAP Agri

“As of now, there are no signs of a thaw in relations between France and Algeria, and French wheat continues to be excluded from participation in Algerian wheat import tenders,” says Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri. “This continues to create favorable prospects for Black Sea wheat — including Ukrainian origin — in the Algerian market for the 2025/26 season.”

Morocco’s wheat imports are highly variable, depending on domestic harvest performance. In 2024/25, France remained a key supplier, but Russia gained ground, while Ukraine’s share declined. The country’s hybrid procurement system — blending state and private sector purchases — means sourcing decisions are driven primarily by price and freight competitiveness, allowing for rapid shifts in origin. In 2025/26, France may increase its market share, supported by a larger crop and improved export availability — though price will remain the decisive factor in determining Morocco’s sourcing choices.

Tunisia, though a smaller buyer, holds strategic importance. Annual imports typically range from 1.5 to 2.5 MMT, mostly handled via coaster vessels rather than large bulk carriers. Ukraine had a strong presence in 2020/21, but in 2024/25, Russian wheat gained market share while Ukraine’s role diminished. Tunisia remains an opportunistic buyer, switching origins based on logistics and cost — and 2024/25 saw a notable increase in Black Sea wheat deliveries. This trend is expected to continue in 2025/26, with Black Sea origins — particularly Russia — maintaining a competitive edge due to flexible logistics and pricing.

Saudi Arabia, a bulk buyer with a strong emphasis on quality and reliability, has traditionally sourced wheat from the EU, Australia, and occasionally North America. In recent years, however, the kingdom has gradually opened up to Black Sea origins, particularly Russia, driven by competitive pricing and improved access via the Red Sea corridor. For Ukrainian wheat, however, Saudi Arabia remains a difficult market to access — primarily due to strict quality specifications.

*ASAP Agri will pay special attention to MENA demand and Black Sea wheat supply 2025/26 during a panel discussion at Global Grain Geneva 2025 (https://www.fastmarkets.com/events/global-grain-geneva-2025/) on November 11-13. Christina Serebriakova, CEO of ASAP Agri, will moderate the “Black Sea Grain Market panel” on November 12. ASAP Agri always pays special attention to description of the Black Sea Grain market in its reports for Premium subscribers.