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Australia faces growing competition in Southeast Asian wheat markets

16 December 20242 min reading

The major wheat exporters, including Australia, the United States, Canada, and Ukraine, are competing fiercely to meet Southeast Asia’s growing demand for wheat. While Australia has traditionally dominated the market, its reduced production in 2023/24 has opened the door for other exporters to gain market share.

Southeast Asia continues to rely heavily on wheat imports to meet its food and feed consumption needs, with imports expected to remain robust in the 2024/25 trade year (July/June). However, the USDA’s latest World Grain Markets and Trade report notes that imports will see a slight decline from the previous year’s record levels. Australia has traditionally been the dominant supplier in the region, benefiting from its proximity and production of preferred wheat varieties. However, Australia’s wheat production fell by 36% in 2023/24, prompting buyers in Southeast Asia to turn to other sources. With production expected to rebound to 32 million tons in 2024/25, Australia is anticipated to regain some market share.


Australia faces stiff competition from the United States and Canada in supplying high-quality milling wheat to Southeast Asia. While the U.S. primarily serves the Philippines and, to a lesser extent, Thailand and Indonesia, Canada has made significant inroads into the Indonesian market, which is the second-largest wheat importer globally.


The USDA report highlights that exports from Ukraine, Russia, and the European Union (EU) surged in 2023/24, helping to offset the decline in Australian wheat exports. These lower-priced suppliers have provided much-needed feed-quality wheat to Southeast Asia, particularly during the first half of the trade year. In the first three months of 2024/25, Ukraine led the pack as the dominant supplier to the region, shipping over 2 million tons. In comparison, Russia’s exports were less than half of that amount, and EU exports were limited due to a smaller harvest.

Australia’s wheat exports to Southeast Asia are expected to increase after the completion of the current harvest, which is expected to conclude by January or February 2025. However, Australia must now contend with the growing presence of South American wheat in the region. Argentina, which is harvesting its largest wheat crop in three years, has seen its export prices drop, now trading approximately 10% below Australia’s most affordable export quote.

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